Dis 7 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-1897 • Amazwana Off kumhlaziyi weGoldman Sachs ubikezela ukuwa okungu-6% kwe-USD ngonyaka ka-2021
Ngesikhathi sokuphawula kanye nokuvuselelwa kwezimakethe zeFXCC zakamuva, sixoxe ngokuwa okuphawulekayo kwe-USD okuhlangabezane nakho kuqhathaniswa nontanga yayo. Emavikini amuva nje i-EUR / USD ifinyelele ezindaweni eziphakeme ezingabonwa kusukela ngoMeyi 2018, ngenkathi i-USD / CHF ethengisiwe ehambisanayo yehlele emazingeni okugcinwe ukufakazelwa ngoJanuwari 2015.
Ukuwa kwe-USD / CHF akufanele kunganakwa noma kuchithwe. Sibheke enye imali eyake yaba yindawo ephephile (i-USD) esetshenziswa ngenye (CHF). I-franc yaseSwitzerland ibhekwe njengenketho ephephile, inikela ngenani lezikhathi ngezikhathi zeziyaluyalu amashumi eminyaka. Ukungaqiniseki okuphelele okuhlinzekwe ubhadane lweCovid kudale ukujaha ukutshala imali eSwitzerland.
Khonamanjalo, ukuvalwa kwemali engamarandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezine zamarandi kanye nemali uhulumeni wase-USA kanye neFederal Reserve bazibophezele ngonyaka we-4 kubuye kwalinciphisa inani le-USD, kanti umhlaziyi ohamba phambili ucabanga ukuthi idola laseMelika lisazoqhubeka nokuwa ngo-2020.
Ungalwi neFed
UGoldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi idola lehle ngonyaka ozayo njengoba umnotho womhlaba ululama nokwabiwa kotshalomali kushintshela ezimpahleni eziyingozi. Ekhuluma ku- "Bloomberg Surveillance, uKamangshya Trivedi, ophethe ngokubambisana noGoldman wamazinga enzalo omhlaba wonke we-FX kanye nocwaningo lwecebo lezimakethe ezisafufusa, ukholelwa ukuthi i-USD ingahle iwele" cishe ngama-5% kuye ku-6% ngokulinganiselwa kwezohwebo ngonyaka ozayo. "
Ukucabanga kwakhe kubonakala kunamandla; Abatshalizimali bazophuma baphume kuma-USD futhi baqhubeke nokuqongelela kwizimali njengoba bobabili abaphathi beBiden kanye neFed behlanganyela ezigidini eziyizigidigidi zamadola Ukubuyiselwa kwe-Covid isikhuthazi phakathi kuka-2021 ngenxa yedola.
Inganekwane yangesonto letheyiphu ngeviki le-USD eliphela ngoDisemba 4
I-EUR / USD inyuke ngo-1.33% masonto onke futhi inyuke ngo-2.57% njalo ngenyanga.
I-GBP / USD inyuke ngo-0.92% masonto onke futhi inyuke ngo-2.25% njalo ngenyanga.
I-USD / CHF yehle ngo -1.44% masonto onke futhi yehla -1.41% njalo ngenyanga.
I-USD / CAD yehle ngo -1.62% masonto onke futhi yehle ngo--2.26% njalo ngenyanga.
Imicimbi ye-Macroeconomic yokuqapha eduze, ngesonto eliqala ngoDisemba 6
Yize kungumjikelezo ophindaphindwayo ngandlela thile, kunezikhathi emisebenzini yethu yokuhweba lapho incwadi yokuhlaziya okuyisisekelo idinga ukuvalwa ngoba izehlakalo ezinkulu nezomlando zihamba phambili. Sine-swan emnyama yeCovid enesithembiso semithi yokugoma ne-Brexit ebusa cishe yonke ingxoxo yemakethe ye-FX nokulingana okwamanje.
Usuku lokugcina lweBrexit selusondele
Ukubekezela okukhonjiswe yiqembu le-EU Brexit ngesikhathi sezinxushunxushu ezahlukahlukene ezivela kozakwabo baseBrithani kuye kwancomeka. Kepha ngeshwa, i-bluster yase-UK ishaye ama-buffers njengoba izingxoxo sezifinyelela ekugcineni. Awusekho umgwaqo wokukhahlela ikani phansi.
Abezombusazwe beVote Leave bathembise ukuthi i-UK izokhetha ukufinyelela emakethe eyodwa kanye nenkululeko yokuhamba ngemuva kukaBrexit. Ngenkathi, i-UK ilahlekelwa ukuhweba okungenangxabano nazo zonke izinkomba ezine zokuhamba mahhala. Kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, umphakathi wase-UK ulahlekelwa ukuhamba kwamahhala kwezimpahla, izinsizakalo, ezezimali kanye nabantu.
Iphawundi lase-UK lenyuke ngenani uma liqhathaniswa ne-USD ngoNovemba. Izimakethe zingasho ukwanda kwe-GBP / USD ngo-2.21% kusikhuthazo sase-US; ukukhuphuka kungenxa yokuwa kwedola, hhayi amandla e-GBP.
Ngokuqhathaniswa ne-euro sterling yehle -6.61% unyaka kuze kube manje; I-EUR / GBP ihweba ngo-0.902 inyuke ngo-0.44% masonto onke, ekuqaleni kuka-2020 imali eyodwa ye-bloc euro ibishintshana ngo-0.840 ngephawundi.
Lapho kuvulwa iseshini yaseLondon ngoMsombuluko, ngoDisemba 7, izingxoxo zikahulumeni wase-UK zizoba namasonto amathathu okusebenza ngaphambi kokuphuma kukaJanuwari 1. Amafemu e-Haulage abikezela isiphithiphithi futhi izinhlangano zokuhweba e-UK zikholelwa ukuthi ukudla okusha futhi umkhiqizo ungakhuphuka ngezindleko ngama-35% uma sekukhokhiswa intela.
Singalindela ngokuzethemba ukuthi wonke amabhangqa e-GBP azwe ukwanda kokungazinzi kokuhweba emasontweni amathathu alandelayo. Ngokwemvelo, i-EUR / GBP ne-GBP / USD kuzoba ngamabhizinisi athandwa kakhulu phakathi nalesi sikhathi ngenxa yokuthi womabili la mabhangqwana asetshenziswa ngabadayisi bezinga lesikhungo ukuvikela ukutholakala egameni lamakhasimende abo. Ukusabalala okucashunwe ngazimbili zemali-ngazimbili kuhlala kuqinile, okubenza bakhange kubo bobabili abadayisi bezinsuku.
Izimakethe zokulingana zase-USA zithatha amarekhodi aphezulu yize kufundwe ngokweqile kwe-NFP
Inombolo yemisebenzi yeNFP ephrintwe ngoLwesihlanu ilahlekelwe yisibikezelo ngebanga elithile. AbakwaReuters babebikezele ukuthi imisebenzi engama-469K izokwakhiwa ngoNovemba, kanti ukufundwa kwangempela kwakungu-245K.
Njengesibonelo sezwe lethu elisezingeni eliphansi lezimali, izimakethe zisabele kahle kule nombolo eshaqisayo okufanele ifake nokuqashwa kwesizini. Ngokusabela okujwayeleke kakhulu, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabahwebi babona masinyane ukuthi uHulumeni waseFed kanye nowaseMelika bazozizwa bephoqelekile ukuthi benze ezinye izinto.
I-paradigm entsha manje isikhona; Izindaba ezesabekayo zomnotho wasekhaya ziyizindaba ezimnandi ezimakethe zezimali zase-USA, futhi okukhombisa ukuthi amakhono ethu okuhlaziya ezincwadi zangaphambili awasasebenzi kakhulu ezikhathini zamanje. Ngesikhathi sokuphawula kwakamuva, sikhuthaze amaklayenti ukuthi aqaphele ukuqaphela imicimbi yezindaba kuhlangene nokuqapha ikhalenda lezomnotho. Amaklayenti kufanele aqhubeke nokwamukela le nqubomgomo yamawele yokuhlaziya ngekusasa elibonakalayo.
« ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVEKI 7/12 - 11/12 | UKUQOQWA KWE-USD NGESIKHATHI SOKUQHUBEKA KWENDABUKO YINDABA EDINGA UKUDALULA OKWENGEZIWE Ukuhweba okubonayo kumashadi wakho we-FX hhayi lokho ocabanga ukuthi kusebenza kakhulu manje »
Umhlaziyi kaGoldman Sachs ubikezela ukuthi enye i-6% yehla nge-USD ngonyaka we-2021
Dis 7 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-1897 • Amazwana Off kumhlaziyi weGoldman Sachs ubikezela ukuwa okungu-6% kwe-USD ngonyaka ka-2021
Ngesikhathi sokuphawula kanye nokuvuselelwa kwezimakethe zeFXCC zakamuva, sixoxe ngokuwa okuphawulekayo kwe-USD okuhlangabezane nakho kuqhathaniswa nontanga yayo. Emavikini amuva nje i-EUR / USD ifinyelele ezindaweni eziphakeme ezingabonwa kusukela ngoMeyi 2018, ngenkathi i-USD / CHF ethengisiwe ehambisanayo yehlele emazingeni okugcinwe ukufakazelwa ngoJanuwari 2015.
Ukuwa kwe-USD / CHF akufanele kunganakwa noma kuchithwe. Sibheke enye imali eyake yaba yindawo ephephile (i-USD) esetshenziswa ngenye (CHF). I-franc yaseSwitzerland ibhekwe njengenketho ephephile, inikela ngenani lezikhathi ngezikhathi zeziyaluyalu amashumi eminyaka. Ukungaqiniseki okuphelele okuhlinzekwe ubhadane lweCovid kudale ukujaha ukutshala imali eSwitzerland.
Khonamanjalo, ukuvalwa kwemali engamarandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezine zamarandi kanye nemali uhulumeni wase-USA kanye neFederal Reserve bazibophezele ngonyaka we-4 kubuye kwalinciphisa inani le-USD, kanti umhlaziyi ohamba phambili ucabanga ukuthi idola laseMelika lisazoqhubeka nokuwa ngo-2020.
Ungalwi neFed
UGoldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi idola lehle ngonyaka ozayo njengoba umnotho womhlaba ululama nokwabiwa kotshalomali kushintshela ezimpahleni eziyingozi. Ekhuluma ku- "Bloomberg Surveillance, uKamangshya Trivedi, ophethe ngokubambisana noGoldman wamazinga enzalo omhlaba wonke we-FX kanye nocwaningo lwecebo lezimakethe ezisafufusa, ukholelwa ukuthi i-USD ingahle iwele" cishe ngama-5% kuye ku-6% ngokulinganiselwa kwezohwebo ngonyaka ozayo. "
Ukucabanga kwakhe kubonakala kunamandla; Abatshalizimali bazophuma baphume kuma-USD futhi baqhubeke nokuqongelela kwizimali njengoba bobabili abaphathi beBiden kanye neFed behlanganyela ezigidini eziyizigidigidi zamadola Ukubuyiselwa kwe-Covid isikhuthazi phakathi kuka-2021 ngenxa yedola.
Inganekwane yangesonto letheyiphu ngeviki le-USD eliphela ngoDisemba 4
I-EUR / USD inyuke ngo-1.33% masonto onke futhi inyuke ngo-2.57% njalo ngenyanga.
I-GBP / USD inyuke ngo-0.92% masonto onke futhi inyuke ngo-2.25% njalo ngenyanga.
I-USD / CHF yehle ngo -1.44% masonto onke futhi yehla -1.41% njalo ngenyanga.
I-USD / CAD yehle ngo -1.62% masonto onke futhi yehle ngo--2.26% njalo ngenyanga.
Imicimbi ye-Macroeconomic yokuqapha eduze, ngesonto eliqala ngoDisemba 6
Yize kungumjikelezo ophindaphindwayo ngandlela thile, kunezikhathi emisebenzini yethu yokuhweba lapho incwadi yokuhlaziya okuyisisekelo idinga ukuvalwa ngoba izehlakalo ezinkulu nezomlando zihamba phambili. Sine-swan emnyama yeCovid enesithembiso semithi yokugoma ne-Brexit ebusa cishe yonke ingxoxo yemakethe ye-FX nokulingana okwamanje.
Usuku lokugcina lweBrexit selusondele
Ukubekezela okukhonjiswe yiqembu le-EU Brexit ngesikhathi sezinxushunxushu ezahlukahlukene ezivela kozakwabo baseBrithani kuye kwancomeka. Kepha ngeshwa, i-bluster yase-UK ishaye ama-buffers njengoba izingxoxo sezifinyelela ekugcineni. Awusekho umgwaqo wokukhahlela ikani phansi.
Abezombusazwe beVote Leave bathembise ukuthi i-UK izokhetha ukufinyelela emakethe eyodwa kanye nenkululeko yokuhamba ngemuva kukaBrexit. Ngenkathi, i-UK ilahlekelwa ukuhweba okungenangxabano nazo zonke izinkomba ezine zokuhamba mahhala. Kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, umphakathi wase-UK ulahlekelwa ukuhamba kwamahhala kwezimpahla, izinsizakalo, ezezimali kanye nabantu.
Iphawundi lase-UK lenyuke ngenani uma liqhathaniswa ne-USD ngoNovemba. Izimakethe zingasho ukwanda kwe-GBP / USD ngo-2.21% kusikhuthazo sase-US; ukukhuphuka kungenxa yokuwa kwedola, hhayi amandla e-GBP.
Ngokuqhathaniswa ne-euro sterling yehle -6.61% unyaka kuze kube manje; I-EUR / GBP ihweba ngo-0.902 inyuke ngo-0.44% masonto onke, ekuqaleni kuka-2020 imali eyodwa ye-bloc euro ibishintshana ngo-0.840 ngephawundi.
Lapho kuvulwa iseshini yaseLondon ngoMsombuluko, ngoDisemba 7, izingxoxo zikahulumeni wase-UK zizoba namasonto amathathu okusebenza ngaphambi kokuphuma kukaJanuwari 1. Amafemu e-Haulage abikezela isiphithiphithi futhi izinhlangano zokuhweba e-UK zikholelwa ukuthi ukudla okusha futhi umkhiqizo ungakhuphuka ngezindleko ngama-35% uma sekukhokhiswa intela.
Singalindela ngokuzethemba ukuthi wonke amabhangqa e-GBP azwe ukwanda kokungazinzi kokuhweba emasontweni amathathu alandelayo. Ngokwemvelo, i-EUR / GBP ne-GBP / USD kuzoba ngamabhizinisi athandwa kakhulu phakathi nalesi sikhathi ngenxa yokuthi womabili la mabhangqwana asetshenziswa ngabadayisi bezinga lesikhungo ukuvikela ukutholakala egameni lamakhasimende abo. Ukusabalala okucashunwe ngazimbili zemali-ngazimbili kuhlala kuqinile, okubenza bakhange kubo bobabili abadayisi bezinsuku.
Izimakethe zokulingana zase-USA zithatha amarekhodi aphezulu yize kufundwe ngokweqile kwe-NFP
Inombolo yemisebenzi yeNFP ephrintwe ngoLwesihlanu ilahlekelwe yisibikezelo ngebanga elithile. AbakwaReuters babebikezele ukuthi imisebenzi engama-469K izokwakhiwa ngoNovemba, kanti ukufundwa kwangempela kwakungu-245K.
Njengesibonelo sezwe lethu elisezingeni eliphansi lezimali, izimakethe zisabele kahle kule nombolo eshaqisayo okufanele ifake nokuqashwa kwesizini. Ngokusabela okujwayeleke kakhulu, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabahwebi babona masinyane ukuthi uHulumeni waseFed kanye nowaseMelika bazozizwa bephoqelekile ukuthi benze ezinye izinto.
I-paradigm entsha manje isikhona; Izindaba ezesabekayo zomnotho wasekhaya ziyizindaba ezimnandi ezimakethe zezimali zase-USA, futhi okukhombisa ukuthi amakhono ethu okuhlaziya ezincwadi zangaphambili awasasebenzi kakhulu ezikhathini zamanje. Ngesikhathi sokuphawula kwakamuva, sikhuthaze amaklayenti ukuthi aqaphele ukuqaphela imicimbi yezindaba kuhlangene nokuqapha ikhalenda lezomnotho. Amaklayenti kufanele aqhubeke nokwamukela le nqubomgomo yamawele yokuhlaziya ngekusasa elibonakalayo.
« ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVEKI 7/12 - 11/12 | UKUQOQWA KWE-USD NGESIKHATHI SOKUQHUBEKA KWENDABUKO YINDABA EDINGA UKUDALULA OKWENGEZIWE Ukuhweba okubonayo kumashadi wakho we-FX hhayi lokho ocabanga ukuthi kusebenza kakhulu manje »