Okthoba 21 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6402 • 1 Comment ku-The Light Bulb Moment, Noma Ingabe Umuntu Wokugcina Osele eYurophu Sicela Ucime Amalambu
Kufanele uzibuze ukuthi ngabe konke ukujikeleza nokuthunyelwa bekufanele yini uma unikezwe ukuthi abaneminyaka eyishumi nesithupha ubudala e-UK abene-C grade ku-GSCE maths bebengatshela abakhulu nabahle kwabangenakubalwa; Imihlangano ye-troika, ye-EU neye-IMF ebibanjelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule ukuthi isikhwama sokutakula esingu- € 440 billion besinganele. Empeleni 'isikhwama sokuzinza' ngalelo zinga lamandla omlilo ngabe simboze kuphela iphutha laseGrisi, kepha lapho ezinye izicathulo zehla (futhi zizokwenza) zaseSpain, e-Italy naseFrance lapho-ke lezi zingubo zazingasenalutho.
Ngandlela-thile kuyancomeka ukuthi iGerman inxusa kakhulu ngesilinganiso sokusebenzisa lesi sikhwama kuze kube kahlanu kunenhloko-dolobha yaso, akukhona ukuthi izipoki zeriphabhuliki yeWeimar zisacathamela ukucabanga kweJalimane, kungumbuzo wokuphathwa kahle nokuqonda. AbaseFrance bafuna ukusheshisa ukusetshenziswa kwalesi sikhwama, lokhu kuzothumela amandla okubolekisa emabhange amakhulu, okuyisimo iGermany esizimisele ukusigwema. Kodwa-ke, yize bengasebenzi futhi bema njengesisindo esiphikisayo kwingxabano lesi sikhwama sinamandla noma asikho isixazululo esikudingayo, empeleni ukuthi abamnyama nabamhlophe futhi ngethemba ukuthi imihlangano yale mpelasonto neyangoLwesithathu ingagcina isixazulule le nkinga.
Uma izidumbu ezahlukahlukene ezinamandla zifuna; uzinzo, amandla okungenelela nokusindisa ezinye izizwe ze-PIIGS njengoba ziya kokuzenzakalelayo bese kuthi € 440 billion akwanele. Akunakwenzeka ukuthi isibalo esithobeke kakhulu okukhulunywe ngaso ngobusuku obubodwa nakusasa namhlanje se- € 1.5 trillion sanele, kepha, njengokuyekethisa 'kwezepolitiki' mhlawumbe lapho kulapho kuvumelana khona futhi kufanele kutholakale. Ngalelo zinga lokwesekwa akunakugwenywa ukuthi amandla ahlukahlukene azobuyela etafuleni kungakapheli iminyaka emibili futhi akungabazeki ukuthi ukukhahlela ikani phansi ezilinganisweni zomgwaqo kuzophinde kusetshenziswe, kepha ukutheleleka kufanele kugwenywe.
I-European Central Bank ingasiza futhi ukuzinza okuphelele ngokuboleka imali ethe xaxa uma kuqhathaniswa namabhondi asekelwa yimpahla uma abakhiphi behlinzeka ngemininingwane eyengeziwe mayelana nemalimboleko esekela ukuphepha. Amabhange angaboleka imali esikhungweni sezimali se-ECB ngokuthumela imali, ngesaphulelo esisetshenzisiwe ngokuya kokuphepha okubonakalayo. I-ECB icubungula izindlela zokwenza ngcono ukudalulwa emakethe yezokuphepha esekelwa yimpahla ngesikhathi lapho ongqongqoshe bakahulumeni waseYurophu behlangana eBrussels ukuzama ukuthola isisombululo enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu esifundeni.
Umjaho wemali phakathi kwamabhange angaphandle eChina usushubile njengoba abanye abafikayo, ikakhulukazi amabhange aseYurophu, belwa kanzima ukuqoqa imali edingekayo yuan ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nemfuneko yokulawulwa eba yinqubomgomo ekupheleni konyaka. I-Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission (i-CBRC) idinga ukuthi wonke amabhange asekhaya nawangaphandle eChina abe ne-LDR (imalimboleko yokufaka isilinganiso) yamaphesenti angama-75 noma ngaphansi, imalimboleko abayenzile akumele yeqe amaphesenti angama-75 ediphozi abayitholile, njengoba Disemba 31, njengoba isikhathi somusa kunqubomgomo eyamenyezelwa ngo-2006 siphela.
Okusondele. Amabhange angaphandle angama-40 asungule amayunithi afakwe kuleli eChina kusukela ngo-2007 enethemba lokuzuza ngokuthuthuka komnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni. Ukuphela kuka-2010, isilinganiso samabhange angaphandle angama-29 e-LDR adalule lesi sibalo besingamaphesenti angama-102, ngokusho kombiko wePricewaterhouseCoopers. Lokho kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso samaphesenti ayi-150 ekupheleni kuka-2009. I-European Union Chamber of Commerce eChina, ephepheni layo lesikhundla lika-2011/21 elashicilelwa ngenyanga eyedlule, yacela iBeijing ukuthi ifake enye indlela esikhundleni sayo noma inikeze isikhathi eside somusa kulabo abazofika sekwedlule isikhathi. Ikholelwa ukuthi umthelela omubi ekusebenzeni kwamabhange angaphandle anezinga eliphakathi uyinhlekelele ikakhulukazi, bane-network encane yamagatsha, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphisa amandla abo okuqoqa imali evela emphakathini obanzi.
Ngemuva kokuhamba phambili kwejika layo ngokumemezela i-QE eyengeziwe i-MPC yeBhange laseNgilandi isebenze ngokuqinile ekunqandeni ukwehla kwamandla omnotho okungenakugwemeka obekusatshwa kangaka. Isihloko se-QE sibuye saphakanyiswa e-USA. Iziphathimandla ezimbili zeFederal Reserve ziphikelela ngokuthi ibhange elikhulu laseMelika kumele licabangele ukuqala kabusha ukuthengwa kwemali ebambekayo yezimalimboleko ezinkulu ukuxhasa ukuvuseleleka komnotho wase-USA. Mhlawumbe i-UK ibilokhu iyisisusa esingazi futhi abenzi bezinqubomgomo zase-US kungenzeka ukuthi babheke kahle isixazululo se-Eurozone bekholelwa ukuthi noma ikuphi ukwandiswa kwenqubomgomo ye-QE evela eYurophu kuzonikeza ithuba lokuthi iFed ikhuphuke.
AbakwaFed bathenga izikweletu ezihlobene nemali mboleko eziqala ku- $ 1.25 trillion, eziqala ngo-2009. I-Fed emhlanganweni wayo wangoSepthemba ithe izothatha indawo yamadola ayizigidigidi ezingama-400 zamasheya wesikhashana esifushane kwiphothifoliyo yayo nezikhathi ezinde ukududula inzalo yesikhathi eside iphansi, okwaziwayo njenge-Operation Twist. Izophinde igcwalise ukubanjwa kwayo kwezikweletu ezihlobene nemali mboleko ukuxhasa imakethe yezindlu ecindezelekile. I-Operation Twist kube ngeyakamuva ochungechungeni lwezinyathelo ezingajwayelekile zokukhulisa ukukhula ngokwesaba kwezezimali nangokuncipha okujulile. Amanani entengo kaFed asondele cishe ku-zero cishe eminyakeni emithathu eyedlule futhi amenyezelwa ngo-Agasti amanani angahlala aphansi kangako maphakathi nonyaka ka-2013. Ibhange elikhulu liphinde lathenga u- $ 2.3 trillion kwizibambiso ukukhuthaza ukuboleka.
Markets
Izimakethe zase-Asia / Pacific zazicabalele futhi zizinzile ekuseni ngovivi ngokuhweba ebusuku. INikkei ivale u-0.04%, iHang Seng yavala u-0.24% kwathi i-CSI yavala u-0.5%. I-ASX 200 ivale u-0.07% kanti i-SET inyuke ngo-1.21%. I-STOXX inyuke ngo-1.0% i-FTSE inyuke ngo-0.81%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-1.05% ne-DAX inyuke ngo-0.51%, ngokwemvelo ithemba lokuthi imihlangano eyahlukahlukene ye-EU izosombulula inkinga yezikweletu ilethe ukuthula ezimakethe namhlanje ekuseni. Ikusasa lenkomba yokulingana ye-SPX njengamanje lenyuka cishe ngo-0.3% iBrent ongahluziwe uphansi kwamaRandi ayi-18 umgqomo negolide kukhuphuke ama-dollar ayi-3.
zezimali
Ekuhwebeni kokuqala i-euro yawa okokuqala ezinsukwini ezine uma kuqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen njengoba ukukhathazeka abenzi bezinqubomgomo zaseYurophu bezolwela ukuthola uhlelo olunzulu lokuxazulula inkinga yesikweletu ehlasele isidingo sezimpahla ze-Eurozone. I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 yaya ku- $ 1.3730 ngo-9: 35 ekuseni ngesikhathi saseLondon, yabhekisa ekulahlekelweni ngamaphesenti ayi-1.1 kuleli sonto. Imali yehle ngo-0.5% yaya kuma-yen ayi-105.29, yehla ngo-0.5% yaya kuma-franc angu-1.2252. I-yen ishintshiwe kancane kwaba ngu-76.71 ngedola. Kodwa-ke, i-euro nokuqhakaza kutholakele ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni ekuseni njengoba izindaba maqondana nesisombululo se-euro zishuba.
I-euro njengamanje isicaba uma iqhathaniswa namaqembu ayo aphikisayo amakhulu. I-Sterling rose iqhathaniswa ne-euro ethola amaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya kuma-87.07 pence nge-euro ngayinye ngo-9: 01 ekuseni ngesikhathi saseLondon, njengoba ibonge amaphesenti angu-0.8 kuleli sonto. Ishintshiwe kancane ku- $ 1.5787, futhi yenqaba amaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya kuma-yen ayi-121.07. Iphawundi selinciphise amaphesenti ayi-1.2 ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, ngokusho kweBloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, elinganisa ubhasikidi wezimali eziyishumi ezithuthukisiwe. Isikweletu sikahulumeni wase-UK sibuyise amaphesenti ayi-10 kulo nyaka, ngokusho kwezinkomba ezihlanganiswe yiBloomberg kanye ne-European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies, edlula ukubuyiswa okungamaphesenti ayi-12 kwezizumbulu zaseJalimane kanye nenzuzo engamaphesenti ayi-7.2 eMgcinimafa wase-US.
Akukho ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho okuphawulekayo noma ngemuva nje kokuvulwa kweNew York okungenzeka kuthinte imizwa yezimakethe.
ukutakula i-eurozoneinhlekelele ye-eurozone
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Umzuzu Wokukhanya Kwe-Bulb, Noma Ingabe Umuntu Wokugcina Osele eYurophu Sicela Ucishe Amalambu
Okthoba 21 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6402 • 1 Comment ku-The Light Bulb Moment, Noma Ingabe Umuntu Wokugcina Osele eYurophu Sicela Ucime Amalambu
Kufanele uzibuze ukuthi ngabe konke ukujikeleza nokuthunyelwa bekufanele yini uma unikezwe ukuthi abaneminyaka eyishumi nesithupha ubudala e-UK abene-C grade ku-GSCE maths bebengatshela abakhulu nabahle kwabangenakubalwa; Imihlangano ye-troika, ye-EU neye-IMF ebibanjelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule ukuthi isikhwama sokutakula esingu- € 440 billion besinganele. Empeleni 'isikhwama sokuzinza' ngalelo zinga lamandla omlilo ngabe simboze kuphela iphutha laseGrisi, kepha lapho ezinye izicathulo zehla (futhi zizokwenza) zaseSpain, e-Italy naseFrance lapho-ke lezi zingubo zazingasenalutho.
Ngandlela-thile kuyancomeka ukuthi iGerman inxusa kakhulu ngesilinganiso sokusebenzisa lesi sikhwama kuze kube kahlanu kunenhloko-dolobha yaso, akukhona ukuthi izipoki zeriphabhuliki yeWeimar zisacathamela ukucabanga kweJalimane, kungumbuzo wokuphathwa kahle nokuqonda. AbaseFrance bafuna ukusheshisa ukusetshenziswa kwalesi sikhwama, lokhu kuzothumela amandla okubolekisa emabhange amakhulu, okuyisimo iGermany esizimisele ukusigwema. Kodwa-ke, yize bengasebenzi futhi bema njengesisindo esiphikisayo kwingxabano lesi sikhwama sinamandla noma asikho isixazululo esikudingayo, empeleni ukuthi abamnyama nabamhlophe futhi ngethemba ukuthi imihlangano yale mpelasonto neyangoLwesithathu ingagcina isixazulule le nkinga.
Uma izidumbu ezahlukahlukene ezinamandla zifuna; uzinzo, amandla okungenelela nokusindisa ezinye izizwe ze-PIIGS njengoba ziya kokuzenzakalelayo bese kuthi € 440 billion akwanele. Akunakwenzeka ukuthi isibalo esithobeke kakhulu okukhulunywe ngaso ngobusuku obubodwa nakusasa namhlanje se- € 1.5 trillion sanele, kepha, njengokuyekethisa 'kwezepolitiki' mhlawumbe lapho kulapho kuvumelana khona futhi kufanele kutholakale. Ngalelo zinga lokwesekwa akunakugwenywa ukuthi amandla ahlukahlukene azobuyela etafuleni kungakapheli iminyaka emibili futhi akungabazeki ukuthi ukukhahlela ikani phansi ezilinganisweni zomgwaqo kuzophinde kusetshenziswe, kepha ukutheleleka kufanele kugwenywe.
I-European Central Bank ingasiza futhi ukuzinza okuphelele ngokuboleka imali ethe xaxa uma kuqhathaniswa namabhondi asekelwa yimpahla uma abakhiphi behlinzeka ngemininingwane eyengeziwe mayelana nemalimboleko esekela ukuphepha. Amabhange angaboleka imali esikhungweni sezimali se-ECB ngokuthumela imali, ngesaphulelo esisetshenzisiwe ngokuya kokuphepha okubonakalayo. I-ECB icubungula izindlela zokwenza ngcono ukudalulwa emakethe yezokuphepha esekelwa yimpahla ngesikhathi lapho ongqongqoshe bakahulumeni waseYurophu behlangana eBrussels ukuzama ukuthola isisombululo enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu esifundeni.
Umjaho wemali phakathi kwamabhange angaphandle eChina usushubile njengoba abanye abafikayo, ikakhulukazi amabhange aseYurophu, belwa kanzima ukuqoqa imali edingekayo yuan ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nemfuneko yokulawulwa eba yinqubomgomo ekupheleni konyaka. I-Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission (i-CBRC) idinga ukuthi wonke amabhange asekhaya nawangaphandle eChina abe ne-LDR (imalimboleko yokufaka isilinganiso) yamaphesenti angama-75 noma ngaphansi, imalimboleko abayenzile akumele yeqe amaphesenti angama-75 ediphozi abayitholile, njengoba Disemba 31, njengoba isikhathi somusa kunqubomgomo eyamenyezelwa ngo-2006 siphela.
Okusondele. Amabhange angaphandle angama-40 asungule amayunithi afakwe kuleli eChina kusukela ngo-2007 enethemba lokuzuza ngokuthuthuka komnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni. Ukuphela kuka-2010, isilinganiso samabhange angaphandle angama-29 e-LDR adalule lesi sibalo besingamaphesenti angama-102, ngokusho kombiko wePricewaterhouseCoopers. Lokho kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso samaphesenti ayi-150 ekupheleni kuka-2009. I-European Union Chamber of Commerce eChina, ephepheni layo lesikhundla lika-2011/21 elashicilelwa ngenyanga eyedlule, yacela iBeijing ukuthi ifake enye indlela esikhundleni sayo noma inikeze isikhathi eside somusa kulabo abazofika sekwedlule isikhathi. Ikholelwa ukuthi umthelela omubi ekusebenzeni kwamabhange angaphandle anezinga eliphakathi uyinhlekelele ikakhulukazi, bane-network encane yamagatsha, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphisa amandla abo okuqoqa imali evela emphakathini obanzi.
Ngemuva kokuhamba phambili kwejika layo ngokumemezela i-QE eyengeziwe i-MPC yeBhange laseNgilandi isebenze ngokuqinile ekunqandeni ukwehla kwamandla omnotho okungenakugwemeka obekusatshwa kangaka. Isihloko se-QE sibuye saphakanyiswa e-USA. Iziphathimandla ezimbili zeFederal Reserve ziphikelela ngokuthi ibhange elikhulu laseMelika kumele licabangele ukuqala kabusha ukuthengwa kwemali ebambekayo yezimalimboleko ezinkulu ukuxhasa ukuvuseleleka komnotho wase-USA. Mhlawumbe i-UK ibilokhu iyisisusa esingazi futhi abenzi bezinqubomgomo zase-US kungenzeka ukuthi babheke kahle isixazululo se-Eurozone bekholelwa ukuthi noma ikuphi ukwandiswa kwenqubomgomo ye-QE evela eYurophu kuzonikeza ithuba lokuthi iFed ikhuphuke.
AbakwaFed bathenga izikweletu ezihlobene nemali mboleko eziqala ku- $ 1.25 trillion, eziqala ngo-2009. I-Fed emhlanganweni wayo wangoSepthemba ithe izothatha indawo yamadola ayizigidigidi ezingama-400 zamasheya wesikhashana esifushane kwiphothifoliyo yayo nezikhathi ezinde ukududula inzalo yesikhathi eside iphansi, okwaziwayo njenge-Operation Twist. Izophinde igcwalise ukubanjwa kwayo kwezikweletu ezihlobene nemali mboleko ukuxhasa imakethe yezindlu ecindezelekile. I-Operation Twist kube ngeyakamuva ochungechungeni lwezinyathelo ezingajwayelekile zokukhulisa ukukhula ngokwesaba kwezezimali nangokuncipha okujulile. Amanani entengo kaFed asondele cishe ku-zero cishe eminyakeni emithathu eyedlule futhi amenyezelwa ngo-Agasti amanani angahlala aphansi kangako maphakathi nonyaka ka-2013. Ibhange elikhulu liphinde lathenga u- $ 2.3 trillion kwizibambiso ukukhuthaza ukuboleka.
Markets
Izimakethe zase-Asia / Pacific zazicabalele futhi zizinzile ekuseni ngovivi ngokuhweba ebusuku. INikkei ivale u-0.04%, iHang Seng yavala u-0.24% kwathi i-CSI yavala u-0.5%. I-ASX 200 ivale u-0.07% kanti i-SET inyuke ngo-1.21%. I-STOXX inyuke ngo-1.0% i-FTSE inyuke ngo-0.81%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-1.05% ne-DAX inyuke ngo-0.51%, ngokwemvelo ithemba lokuthi imihlangano eyahlukahlukene ye-EU izosombulula inkinga yezikweletu ilethe ukuthula ezimakethe namhlanje ekuseni. Ikusasa lenkomba yokulingana ye-SPX njengamanje lenyuka cishe ngo-0.3% iBrent ongahluziwe uphansi kwamaRandi ayi-18 umgqomo negolide kukhuphuke ama-dollar ayi-3.
zezimali
Ekuhwebeni kokuqala i-euro yawa okokuqala ezinsukwini ezine uma kuqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen njengoba ukukhathazeka abenzi bezinqubomgomo zaseYurophu bezolwela ukuthola uhlelo olunzulu lokuxazulula inkinga yesikweletu ehlasele isidingo sezimpahla ze-Eurozone. I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 yaya ku- $ 1.3730 ngo-9: 35 ekuseni ngesikhathi saseLondon, yabhekisa ekulahlekelweni ngamaphesenti ayi-1.1 kuleli sonto. Imali yehle ngo-0.5% yaya kuma-yen ayi-105.29, yehla ngo-0.5% yaya kuma-franc angu-1.2252. I-yen ishintshiwe kancane kwaba ngu-76.71 ngedola. Kodwa-ke, i-euro nokuqhakaza kutholakele ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni ekuseni njengoba izindaba maqondana nesisombululo se-euro zishuba.
I-euro njengamanje isicaba uma iqhathaniswa namaqembu ayo aphikisayo amakhulu. I-Sterling rose iqhathaniswa ne-euro ethola amaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya kuma-87.07 pence nge-euro ngayinye ngo-9: 01 ekuseni ngesikhathi saseLondon, njengoba ibonge amaphesenti angu-0.8 kuleli sonto. Ishintshiwe kancane ku- $ 1.5787, futhi yenqaba amaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya kuma-yen ayi-121.07. Iphawundi selinciphise amaphesenti ayi-1.2 ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, ngokusho kweBloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, elinganisa ubhasikidi wezimali eziyishumi ezithuthukisiwe. Isikweletu sikahulumeni wase-UK sibuyise amaphesenti ayi-10 kulo nyaka, ngokusho kwezinkomba ezihlanganiswe yiBloomberg kanye ne-European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies, edlula ukubuyiswa okungamaphesenti ayi-12 kwezizumbulu zaseJalimane kanye nenzuzo engamaphesenti ayi-7.2 eMgcinimafa wase-US.
Akukho ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho okuphawulekayo noma ngemuva nje kokuvulwa kweNew York okungenzeka kuthinte imizwa yezimakethe.
ukutakula i-eurozoneinhlekelele ye-eurozone
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