I-ECB Imemezela Okokugcina Ekuthengisweni Kwayo Kwemali
Asinaso isiqiniseko esiphelele sokuthi kwenzekani ezindabeni “zediphozithi” ezazisakaza izindaba zezimali ngasekupheleni kuka-2011, khumbula ukuthi kwakunjani?
I-ECB izonikela ngemalimboleko engapheli yeminyaka emithathu emabhange ngekhuphoni elingu-1%, balibiza ngokuthi i-LTRO, (ukusebenza kabusha kwesikhathi eside). Amabhange abe esefaka ngokushesha imali efanayo kwi-ECB njengoba engathembani amaqembu awo aphikisayo kangangokuthi ayengeke akwazi ukuwaboleka ngokwenza okwaziyo, 'izinto zasebhange' ezihlakaniphile.
Ngakho-ke ukulingana okuphelele kanye nokungabi nalusizo kwezenhlalo kwamabhange angenathemba, ababhuquza phezu kwe-zombie ebolayo yomunye nomunye njengezidumbu zezikweletu, kwakuqukethwe ku-loop ephelele uma kungeyona i-surreal; Ibhange elikhulu libolekisa ngo-1%, ibhange likubuyisela idiphozithi ukuze lizuze (okungcono kakhulu) inzalo engu-0.5%, lokho kungukubhanga kwakho, 'ngesimo esisha' sika-2011-2012.
I-ECB imemezele ukuthi iwindi liyavalwa, indali elandelayo (yesibili) izoba ngeyokugcina futhi uma inani elibolekiwe lingamahemuhemu angama-trillion euros khona-ke uhlelo lwe-ECB lungasebenza. Ukunikezwa kungase kudlule isidingo, bangase bangakwazi ukukhipha imali bephakamisa ukuthi uhlelo lwelashiwe. Lokho kusho ukuthi uma ngokuphulukiswa sinquma ukuthi amabhange azobe egcwele i-liquidity ngakho-ke ukukhokha akumele kube yinkinga…okungenani unyaka noma emibili.
I-ECB ifuna ukugcina ingcindezi kohulumeni ukuthi bathuthukise ukuvikela kwabo indawo ye-euro ngezinqubomgomo zezomnotho ezingcono kanye nokuqinisa i-firewall yabo ye-European Stability Mechanism (ESM) ezoqala ukusebenza maphakathi nonyaka. Ukwenza amakhulu ezigidigidi zama-euro atholakale kalula emabhange esikhathini esiyiminyaka emithathu kubeka engcupheni ukucwila ezikweletini abanye osomabhange abakhulu abakhathazeka ngakho ukuthi kungase kwenyuse ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyilapho kugqugquzelwa isiko lokuthembela ebhange elikhulu. Abanye e-ECB bakholelwa ukuthi amabhange manje kufanele aphinde aphindaphinde imizamo yawo yokuthola imali entsha, njengoba i-UniCredit isanda kwenza ngodaba lwamalungelo ayo, futhi besaba ukuthi usizo lwe-ECB luzodala amabhange ama-zombie athembele ekusekelweni kwebhange elikhulu;
Uma ugcwalisa imakethe nge-refinancing eshibhile bese kufika iphuzu lapho uvimbela imakethe ukuthi isebenze, ngoba akekho ozoboleka kwelinye ibhange ngamaphesenti angu-X uma ekwazi ukuboleka ku-ECB ngamaphesenti angu-Y.
I-ECB yasakaza imali ecishe ibe yingxenye yesigidigidi sama-euro ekuqaleni komsebenzi ngoDisemba 21. Inhlolovo ye-Reuters yosomnotho abangaphezu kuka-60 ibonise ukulindela okuphakathi nendawo yokuthi yabele amanye ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-492 ngesonto elizayo, abanye abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi kuthathwe i-trillion. .
Uma amabhange esebenzise i-LTRO yokuqala ukuze avale izidingo zawo zezimali futhi agweme ukushoda kwezikweletu, izikhulu ze-ECB zithemba ukuthi zingasebenzisa eyesibili ngobudlova kakhulu ukuze zithenge amabhondi anenzuzo ephezulu, ikakhulukazi evela e-Italy edinga ukuphinda isetshenziswe cishe ku-€105 bn wamabhondi ngaphambi kwe- ekupheleni kuka-April.
Nakuba izikhulu ze-ECB zilindele ukuthi i-LTRO yesibili inikeze umfutho ekubolekeni nasekuthengeni ibhondi, nokho bakhathazekile ngokuthi amabhange ancike kwi-ECB noma ukukhuphula ukuhlinzekwa kwezimali okuholela ezinqumweni zamabhange ngokunganaki.
Market Sibutsetelo
Amasheya aseMelika alahlekelwe yinzuzo yawo yesikhathi sangaphambilini, ukwanda kukawoyela kwehlise ezokuthutha kanye nezabelo zabathengi kuyilapho ukugunyazwa kwe-Greece ukuthola ibheyili yesibili kuhlulekile ukukhuthaza ukuzethemba okwanele ukugcina i-Standard & Poor's 500 Index iphakeme cishe iminyaka emine.
I-S&P 500 ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 yaya ku-1,362.21 ngo-4 ntambama eNew York ngemva kokukhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ukuze ifinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu lokuvala kusukela ngoJuni 2008. I-Dow Jones Industrial Average yehle ngaphambi kwesikhathi ngemva kokukhuphuka ingaphezu kuka-13,000 okokuqala ngqa kusukela. May 2008. I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index ilahlekelwe ngamaphesenti angu-0.5. Inzuzo yeminyaka eyi-10 yoMgcinimafa wase-US yeqe amaphuzu ayisisekelo ayisithupha yaya kumaphesenti angu-2.06. I-WTI Oil ifinyelele ukuphakama kwezinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye eduze kuka-$106 umphongolo njengoba i-Iran ithi iyekile ukudayisela iFrance neBrithani.
Izisekelo Zezimpahla
I-Iran iyekile ukudayisela iFrance neBrithani uwoyela ngoMsombuluko, ngaphambi kokuvinjelwa kwe-European Union. Amazwe e-EU athenge amaphesenti ayi-18 ahlanganisiwe emikhiqizo yase-Iran engcolile nama-condensate, noma imiphongolo engu-452,000 ngosuku, engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2011, ngokusho koMnyango Wezamandla wase-US. IFrance yathenga imiphongolo engama-49,000 ngosuku kwathi i-UK imiphongolo eyi-11,000.
Uwoyela we-Brent wokuxazululwa kuka-Ephreli ukhuphuke u-$1.63, noma amaphesenti angu-1.4, waya ku-$121.68 umphongolo ekuhwebeni kwe-ICE Futures Europe ezinze eLondon.
I-Forex Spot-Lite
I-Dollar Index, elandelela imali yase-US ngokumelene nalabo abahwebi abayisithupha, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.3. Idola lase-Australia laba buthakathaka uma liqhathaniswa nawo wonke ozakwabo abakhulu abangu-16, lalahlekelwa ngamaphesenti angu-0.8 uma liqhathaniswa nohlobo lwemali yase-US, ngemva kokuba imizuzu yomhlangano wenqubomgomo yebhange eliphakathi nezwe yakamuva ibonise ukuthi kukhona ukunwetshwa kwezimali.
I-yen yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 kuya ku-79.74 ngo-5 pm eNew York, ngemva kokuthinta i-79.89 izolo, ebuthakathaka kusukela ngo-Agasti 4. I-euro yehle ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angu-0.1 kuya ku-$ 1.3234 ngemuva kokufinyelela ku-$ 1.3293, izinga eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-Feb. 9. Imali yaseYurophu yaphakama. Amaphesenti angu-0.1 ama-yen angu-105.54 ngemva kokukhuphuka kwangaphambilini afinyelela ku-yen angu-106.01, amaningi kusukela ngomhlaka-14 Nov.
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