Amanani Kawoyela: Abhekephi?
Izintengo zikawoyela bezilokhu zihamba phambili kusukela ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 lwafika emhlabeni ekuqaleni kuka-2020. Ngemva kokuwela ekwehleni okungokomlando ngo-April 2020, asehlehle ngezinga elithile kodwa asalokhu engaphansi kwamazinga awo angaphambi kobhubhane. Yiziphi izici ezilolonga imakethe kawoyela futhi yini esingayilindela esikhathini esizayo?
Isimo Samanje
Kusukela ngoMeyi 30, 2023, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ibingu-$75.25 umphongolo ngamunye kanti intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI ibingu-$71.99 umphongolo ngamunye, ngokusho kwe-Oilprice.com. Lawa manani akhombisa ukusimama kokwehla ngo-Ephreli 2020, lapho umqedazwe we-COVID-19 ubangele ukwehla okukhulu kwesidingo sikawoyela kanye nokutholakala ngokweqile okungaba ngu-20 MMb/d. Ngaleso sikhathi, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent yehla yafinyelela ku-$18 umphongolo, izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-1999.
Ukululama kugqugquzelwe izinto ezimbalwa, ezinjengokwehliswa kancane kancane kwezinyathelo zokuvala umnyango, ukuqhubeka kwezinhlelo zokugoma, izinyathelo zokuvuselela ohulumeni namabhange amakhulu, kanye nokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+. I-OPEC+, okuyiqembu lamazwe akhiqiza uwoyela eliholwa yiSaudi Arabia neRussia, yavuma ukunciphisa umkhiqizo wayo ngo-9.7 MMb/d ngoMeyi 2020 futhi kancane kancane yanciphisa ukusikeka yaba ku-5.8 MMb/d ngoJanuwari 2021. Leli qembu liphinde labonisa ukuzimisela kwalo. ukungenelela emakethe uma kudingeka ukulinganisa ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo.
Kodwa-ke, amanani amanje kawoyela asengaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane angaba ngu-$80 emgqonyeni ngamunye, abesekelwa ukukhula okuqinile kwesidingo somhlaba wonke, ukungezwani kwezwe, kanye nokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kwezinye izifunda. Umqedazwe we-COVID-19 udale umthelela omkhulu embonini kawoyela, okuholele ekunciphiseni ukutshalwa kwezimali, ukubambezeleka kwamaphrojekthi, ukuqothuka, ukudilizwa kanye nokukhathazeka kwezemvelo.
I-Outlook Yesikhathi Esifushane
Esikhathini esifushane, kuze kufike ku-2025, isidingo sikawoyela kulindeleke ukuthi sibuyele emazingeni ka-2019 ngasekupheleni kuka-2021 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2022, kuye ngokuthi isikhathi sokuvalwa kwezindawo kanye nesivinini sokululama kwe-GDP. Ngokwesibikezelo se-US Energy Information Administration (EIA), intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent izokhula ibe ngu-$66 ngomphongolo ngo-2025. Nokho, lokhu kuqagela kungaphansi kwezingozi ezihlukahlukene nokungaqiniseki, okufana nokuthi:
- Isivinini nokusebenza kwezinhlelo zokugomela i-COVID-19
- Ukuthobela kanye nobude besikhathi sokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+
- Impendulo yabakhiqizi bakawoyela we-shale base-US
- Ukungezwani kwezepolitiki ezifundeni ezinkulu ezikhiqiza uwoyela
Izinhlelo zokugomela i-COVID-19 zibalulekile ekubuyiseleni isimo esijwayelekile kanye nokuthuthukisa umsebenzi wezomnotho, okuzokwandisa isidingo sikawoyela. Kodwa-ke, ukutholakala nokusatshalaliswa kwemithi yokugoma kuyehluka emazweni nasezifundeni, okudala ukungaqiniseki mayelana nesivinini kanye nezinga lokululama.
Ukwehliswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kube yimpumelelo ekusimamiseni imakethe kawoyela kanye nokusekela amanani. Kodwa-ke, leli qembu libhekene nezinselele ekugcineni ukubumbana nokuziphatha kwalo njengoba isidingo sikhuphuka futhi amanani enyuka. Amanye amalungu angase alingeke ukuba akhulise umkhiqizo wawo ukuze azuze isabelo semakethe noma imali engenayo.
Abakhiqizi bakawoyela we-shale baseMelika bebelokhu bekwazi ukumelana namanani aphansi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwehliswe. Baye bathuthukisa ukusebenza kwabo kahle, behlisa izindleko zabo, futhi babiyela ukukhiqizwa kwabo. Kodwa-ke, baphinde babhekane nezinkinga zezimali, izimiso zemvelo, nezingcindezi zomphakathi. Ikhono labo lokukhuphula umkhiqizo ngokushesha lizoncika kulezi zici kanye namasignali entengo.
Ukungezwani kwezepolitiki ezindaweni ezinkulu ezikhiqiza uwoyela njenge-Middle East, i-Afrika, ne-Latin America kubangela ubungozi bokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa noma izingxabano ezingase zithinte amanani kawoyela. Isibonelo, ukuhlaselwa kwakamuva kwezikhungo zikawoyela zase-Saudi Arabia ngamavukela-mbuso ase-Yemeni noma inkinga yezombangazwe eqhubekayo eVenezuela ingase inyuke noma isabalale.
I-Outlook Yesikhathi Eside
Esikhathini eside, kufika ku-2050, amanani kawoyela kungenzeka athonywe uhlobo lukawoyela ongavuseleleki kanye nokukhuphuka kwemithombo yamandla ehlukile, ikakhulukazi esimeni sokusheshisa sokushintsha kwamandla.
Ngokombiko weGlobal Energy Perspective kaMcKinsey, amanani kawoyela wokulinganisa wesikhathi eside ehle ngo-$10 kuya ku-$15/bbl uma kuqhathaniswa nokubukeka kwangaphambi kwe-COVID-19, njengoba kuqhutshwa ijika lezindleko eziphansi kanye nesidingo esiphansi. Ngaphansi kwesimo sokulawula i-OPEC, lapho i-OPEC igcina isabelo sayo semakethe, umbiko ubona intengo yokulinganisa engu-$50 kuya ku-$60/bbl esikhathini eside.
I-EIA ibikezela ukuthi ngo-2030, isidingo somhlaba sizoshayela amanani e-Brent ku-$79/bbl, futhi ngo-2040, amanani azofinyelela ku-$84/bbl. Ngaleso sikhathi, imithombo kawoyela eshibhile iyobe isiphelile, okwenza kube kubize kakhulu ukukhipha uwoyela. Imvelo engavuselelwa kawoyela isho ukuthi ekugcineni izophela noma ibize kakhulu noma kube nzima ukuyikhiqiza.
Izinsiza ezisele zitholakala kakhulu emanzini ajulile, ezifundeni ezingajwayelekile, noma ezingazinzile kwezepolitiki, ezidinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphezulu, ubuchwepheshe, nokulawulwa kwezinhlekelele. Ukukhuphuka kweminye imithombo yamandla efana ne-renewables, i-hydrogen, i-biofuels, noma izimoto zikagesi kuzonciphisa isidingo sikawoyela kweminye imikhakha efana nokuphehla ugesi, ezokuthutha, noma izimboni.
Lezi zindlela ezihlukile ziya ngokuya zincintisana futhi zihehe ngenxa yokuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe, ukuncishiswa kwezindleko, ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo, nokuthandwa ngabathengi. Isimo esisheshayo sokushintsha kwamandla sithatha ukuthi ohulumeni, amabhizinisi, kanye nabathengi bazothatha izinyathelo ezinqala ukuze banciphise ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu futhi bathole ukukhishwa kwe-net-zero ngo-2050 noma maduze. Lesi simo sizoba nomthelela omkhulu ekufuneni nasekuhlinzekweni kukawoyela, okuholela ekwehleni kwamanani entengo kanye nempahla engasebenzi.
Isiphetho sendaba
Izintengo zamanje zikawoyela ziyasimama ekushaqekeni kwe-COVID-19 kodwa zihlala zingaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane. Ikusasa lamanani kawoyela aliqinisekile futhi lincike ezicini ezihlukahlukene ezifana nesidingo somhlaba wonke, ukuhlinzeka, i-geopolitics, nokungenelela kwe-OPEC+. Esikhathini esifushane, kuze kufike ku-2025, amanani kawoyela kulindeleke ukuthi anyuke ngokulingene njengoba isidingo sibuya. Esikhathini eside, kuze kufike ku-2050, amanani kawoyela kungenzeka ehle noma antengantenge njengoba eminye imithombo yamandla iba ngokuncintisana kakhulu nezinsiza zikawoyela ziba yindlala.
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