Ingabe Ukuphelelwa Yithemba Kungabangela Ukuthonywa?
Izibalo ezibuyekeziwe zamasonto onke zase-USA zabangasebenzi zishicilelwe ngoLwesine. Inani labantu baseMelika abafaka izimangalo zemihlomulo yokuntula umsebenzi alikaze lishintshe kusukela ngesonto eledlule. Izicelo zokukhokhelwa komshwalense wokungasebenzi zehle ngo-1,000 ngesonto eliphele ngo-Okthoba 8 zaya ku-404,000, izibalo zoMnyango Wezabasebenzi zibonisile namuhla. Izazi zezomnotho zibikezela izimangalo ezingu-405,000 ngokwesilinganiso esimaphakathi ocwaningweni lwezindaba ze-Bloomberg. Isibalo sabantu base-USA silinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-308 futhi sikhule ngezigidi ezingu-30 kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Cishe u-75% ungaphezu kweminyaka engu-18 ubudala. Emphakathini wabantu abadala abayizigidi ezingama-231 okucatshangwa ukuthi 'izindaba ezinhle' namuhla ukuthi bancane abayi-1000 abafake izicelo zokuthola inzuzo yokungasebenzi ngokuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule.
Bekusenezimangalo ezintsha ezingu-404,000 ezenziwe ngesonto eledlule kodwa nokho abezindaba abajwayelekile bakwazile ukuthokozela ukwehla okungu-0.247% bememezela lezi zindaba kanye nokunye ukuthuthukiswa okuncane kakhulu kwegebe lezohwebo ngo-0.4%, njengezimpawu zokuthi umnotho uyathuthuka. Umnotho wase-USA ulahlekelwe yimisebenzi ecishe ibe yizigidi eziyi-10.5 kusukela ngo-2008, izisusa ezehlukene zidale amathuba emisebenzi ayizigidi ezimbili. Izilinganiso zesisusa esiphelele, kucatshangelwa konke ukukhishwa kwebheyili, ukuhlenga kanye ne-QE, kuphakamisa cishe. $2 trillion idaliwe/yachithwa kusukela ngo-3.27 futhi abanye abahlaziyi babeke inani kuwo wonke umsebenzi odalwe yizisusa cishe ku-$2008 ngomsebenzi ngamunye.
Ubuhlakani esibutholile ukuthi i-USA kumele ikhiqize imisebenzi engu-265,000 ngenyanga ukuze ime, njengoba izinga labantu abangasebenzi lizokwehla lisuka ku-9.1% liye ku-5%. Ngakho-ke uma i-USA ingakwazi ukudala eminye imisebenzi ngokufanele ngebhizinisi elizimele (ukuvala ukushoda kwezigidi eziyishumi ezilahlekile kusukela ngo-2008) kungenzeka kanjani ukuthi noma iyiphi intuthuko iqhutshekwe ngezindleko ezinjalo ngomsebenzi ngamunye?
Igebe elikhulayo phakathi kwezakhamizi zase-US ezicebe kakhulu nezimpofu kakhulu ngokungangabazeki lilungisa kabusha umnotho wase-US, i-genie manje isiphumile ebhodleleni. Uma kunganakiwe, ukuthambekela okwandayo kokungalingani kunganyakazisa uzinzo emphakathini. Kusukela ngo-1980, cishe. Amaphesenti angu-5 emali engenayo yezwe yonyaka ashintshile esuka kubantu abasezingeni eliphakathi waya emakhaya acebe kakhulu esizweni. Imindeni ecebe kakhulu engu-5,934 ngo-2010 yajabulela enye imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-650, cishe i-$ 109 million lilinye, ngaphezu kwalokho ebingaba nakho ukube 'i-economic pie' yayihlukaniswe njengoba kwakunjalo ngo-1980, ngokusho kwedatha yeCensus Bureau. Ingabe ugqozi luzophuma ekuphelelweni yithemba? Impela i-USA ayikwazi ukuqhubeka nomzila wayo wamanje. Inhlangano ye-Occupy isanda kuqala ukubamba ukungcola kwalokho okulele ngempela ngaphansi.
I-Stagnation noma i-Stagflation?
Ukuma kungenzeka kube yinto ehamba phambili amazwe amaningi ezomnotho athuthukile emhlabeni wonke angayithemba ngonyaka ozayo, kanti abaningi babhekene nethuba elikhulu lokuwohloka komnotho, ngokusho kocwaningo lweReuters olwenziwa ngosomnotho ababalelwa ku-350 ngoLwesine. Unyaka wezi-2011 ube ukudumala kweminotho yamazwe acebile ethuthukile, ekhutshazwe yinhlanganisela; ukucindezela, izinkinga zezikweletu kanye nezinhlekelele zemvelo.
Isekelwa izibalo zokuhwebelana ezibuthakathaka zangoLwesine ezivela e-China, ezikhomba ebuthakathakeni bomnotho womhlaba, inhlolovo yekota ka-Okthoba iphakamisa ukukhula okubuthakathaka kweminotho eminingi ye-G7 okunganwebela kujule ngonyaka ozayo nangale kwayo. Umnotho womhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule ngamaphesenti ama-3.8 ngowezi-2011, kanti ngonyaka ozayo uzokhula ngama-3.6% uma kuqhathaniswa nezibikezelo ezingamaphesenti angu-4.1 kanye namaphesenti angu-4.3 zocwaningo lwekota lokugcina lwangoJulayi.
Europe
Kancane kancane, kuvuza ngokuvuza (okuhlelwe kahle futhi kuphothelwe kakhulu), izindaba ezimbi ziyaphuma maqondana nokubhala phansi okukhulu kwamabhange ase-Europe kuzomele ahlupheke ukuze athobele uhlaka oluthathwa njengohlelo olukhulu. Ngokwezindaba ze-Bloomberg amabhange aseJalimane kufanele azilungiselele ukulahlekelwa okungamaphesenti angama-60 ezikweletini zawo zikahulumeni waseGreece. Amabhange akuleli abambe umhlangano kuleli sonto, ababambe iqhaza baxoxisane ngokulahleka kwamabhondi aseGreece okuphakathi kwamaphesenti angama-50 kuya kwangama-60.
Ngevoti elithi “yebo” manje esikhwameni esivela eSlovakia uVan Rompuy kanye noBarroso bamemezele ukuthi i-EFSF eyizigidigidi ezingama-440 isebenza ngokugcwele, yiziphi izinyathelo okufanele bazithathe ukuze basebenzise leso sikhwama ku-euro elinganiselwa ku-2-3 trillion. i-Eurozone cishe eyidingayo izothakazelisa ukufakaza ihlanjululwa. I-Euro eyizigidigidi ezingama-440 izokwanela ukumboza okuzenzakalelayo kweGreece kanye.
Fitch Ukuthola Fidgety
Izilinganiso ze-Fitch zenyuke kakhulu ezilinganisweni zezikweletu zamabhange athile ngasekupheleni kwangoLwesine kusihlwa, zabeka abambalwa ewashini lokufa ngenkathi abanye abambalwa belahla ihhovisi labo le-sweepstake dead-pool. Izilinganiso ze-Fitch zehlise i-UBS ngoLwesine futhi zabeka amanye amabhange ayisikhombisa ase-US naseYurophu ewashini lesikweletu elibi, esho izinselele zomnotho nezimakethe zezimali, kanye nomthelela wemithetho emisha. I-ejensi yokulinganisa yehlise isilinganiso esimisiwe somkhiphi wesikhathi eside se-UBS saya ku-A sisuka ku-A+.
I-Fitch iphinde ibuyekeze izilinganiso ze-Barclays Bank Plc, i-BNP Paribas, i-Credit Suisse Group AG, i-Deutsche Bank AG, i-Societe Generale, i-Bank of America Corp, i-Morgan Stanley kanye ne-Goldman Sachs Group ukuze uthole ukwehliswa okwengeziwe okungenzeka. Ukusikeka ezimweni eziningi kungaba inotshi eyodwa, kwezinye izinotshi ezimbili. Phambilini ngoLwesine, i-Fitch iphinde yehlisa izilinganiso zayo eRoyal Bank of Scotland kanye neLloyds Banking Group PLC.
Markets
Amasheya ehle, kwamisa umhlangano omkhulu we-Standard & Poor's 500 Index ezinsukwini eziyisikhombisa kusukela ngo-2009, kulandela ukwehla kwenzuzo ye-JPMorgan Chase & Co. phakathi kokukhathazeka ngokuthi ukulingana kukhuphuke kakhulu ethembeni elihle mayelana nenkinga yezikweletu zaseYurophu. Izimpahla zishibilikile kwabe sekuhlangana uMgcinimafa. I-S&P 500 yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 ngo-4 ntambama ngesikhathi saseNew York, ihlanganisa ukuhlehla kwayo kusuka kumaphesenti angu-1.4. I-JPMorgan ibike inzuzo encane engamaphesenti angama-33, ngaphandle kwenzuzo yokubalwa kwezimali engu-$1.9 billion, njengoba imali yokutshalwa kwezimali yasebhange kanye neyokuhweba yehla. Izimakethe zaseYurophu zehle kakhulu ngenxa yokukhathazeka mayelana nokushoda kwezimali kwamabhange kanye ne-solvency. I-STOXX ivale i-1.67%, i-FTSE yehla ngo-0.71%, i-CAC 1.33% kanye ne-DAX ivale i-1.33%. imali yase-Italy, i-MIB ivale ngo-3.71%, izinkinga ze-Unicredit kanye nevoti elingaba khona lokungazethembi kuhulumeni waseBerlusconi elinesisindo esikhulu kunkomba esivele yehla cishe ngo-24.8% unyaka nonyaka.
Ukukhishwa kwezomnotho okungase kuthinte imizwa ngeseshini yasekuseni yaseLondon nase-Europe ihlanganisa okulandelayo;
10:00 I-Eurozone - CPI Septhemba
10:00 Eurozone - Trade Balance August
Inhlolovo ye-Bloomberg yabahlaziyi ibonisa ukubikezela okumaphakathi kuka-3.0% unyaka nonyaka kunkomba yentengo yomthengi engashintshile kusukela enanini langaphambilini. Isibalo 'esiwumgogodla' esabikezelwa sasingu-1.5% sisuka ku-1.2% okuyisibalo esikhishwe ngaphambi kwalokhu. Ngenyanga nenyanga kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngu-0.8% ukusuka ku-0.2% ngaphambilini.
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