Uma Isihlahla Siwa Ehlathini Bekungekho Umuntu Osizungezile, Ingabe Senza Umsindo?

Okthoba 14 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-12259 • 1 Comment ku-Uma Umuthi Uhlaselwa Ehlathini Futhi Akekho Omuntu Okuzungeze Ukuyizwa, Ingabe Yenza Umsindo?

"Uma isihlahla siwela ehlathini futhi kungekho oseduze ukuzosizwa, ingabe siyawenza umsindo?" ingumqondo oyingqayizivele womcabango wefilosofi ophakamisa imibuzo ngokuphathelene nokubona kanye nolwazi lweqiniso. Kungabe kukhona okukhona ngaphandle kokuba kuqondwe? Ingabe umsindo uzwakala nje uma umuntu ezwa? Isihloko sefilosofi esisheshayo esivela ukuthi izethulo zezimfumbe zihilela ukuba khona kwesihlahla (futhi umsindo oveza) ngaphandle kokubona komuntu. Uma kungekho muntu oseduze; bheka, uzwe, uthinte noma uphefumule isihlahla, kungathiwa kanjani ukuthi ukhona? Yini okusho ukuthi ikhona uma khona okunjalo kungaziwa?

Ukuhlolwa kuvame ukuxoxwa ngale ndlela; Uma isihlahla singawela esiqhingini, lapho kungekho khona abantu, bekungaba khona umsindo? Impendulo ithi cha uma kubhekwa ukuthi umsindo uwumuzwa othokozisayo endlebeni lapho umoya, noma esinye isisetshenziswa sinyakaza. Lokhu kuphakamisa umbuzo hhayi ngokombono wefilosofi, kodwa kusukela kowesayensi kuphela. Umsindo ukudlidliza, udluliselwa ezinzwa zethu ngomshini wendlebe, futhi ubonakala njengomsindo ezikhungweni zethu zemizwa kuphela. Ukuwa kwesihlahla nanoma yikuphi okunye ukuphazamiseka kuzoveza ukundindizela komoya. Uma zingekho izindlebe zokuzwa, ngeke kube khona umsindo. Ngaphakathi kwehlathi eliminyene lolwazi lwemakethe esihlale sihlaselwa ngalo nsuku zonke kungaba khona imisindo yezihlahla eziwayo esingayizwa? Izinkomba zokuphahlazeka kwemakethe zango-2008-2009 zenziwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule; i-PIIGS, inkinga yezikweletu ze-Eurozone kanye namathuba ayo okutheleleka, ukwehliswa kwesilinganiso sesikweletu sase-USA, ukwehluleka okuqhubekayo kwamabhange e-USA, (okuyishumi nanhlanu kusukela ngo-Agasti 2011), umhwebi onamandla weSoc Gen, isilinganiso sezikweletu zamabhange aseFrance, ukungasebenzi kuhlala kuphakeme ngenkani , i-MPC yase-UK BoE ebambe iqhaza komunye umjikelezo we-QE..Uhlu alupheli maqondana nokuwohloka komnotho okukhona nokho yize kunale nkinga yobudedengu izimakethe, ikakhulukazi izimakethe zezimali, ziye zaphambukisa izingqinamba zahlala emazingeni lawo ( ngenkathi kusanqotshwa) akukho lapho kusondele khona kakhulu ngoMashi 9th 2009 lapho isilinganiso sezimboni iDow Jones (INDU) savalwa ngo-6547.05, okuyindawo ephansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-Ephreli 25, 1997. Isenzo sentengo esimise okwe-V 'sokubuyisela' ngemuva kwalokho sasimangalisa. Ngokusebenzisa isibuko sethu sokubuka sangemuva sakudala kwaba sobala ukuthi ukwesaba kwase kwedlulele futhi izimakethe eziningi zomhlaba zazidayiswe ngokweqile, umhlangano owalandela wawumangalisa ngokufanayo. Ngaphandle kokungabaza i-zirp, i-bailouts, ukusiza ukuqothuka kwezimali e-USA, (okubizwa ngokuthi ukuhlenga okupakishwe ngaphambilini e-UK) kanye nemijikelezo ye-QE "ukuhlenga uhlelo" kwasiza ukubuyiselwa kwe-Dow Jones kwabangaphezu kuka-11,000 ekuqaleni kuka-2010. Ukuphahlazeka komhlaba wonke kwango-2008-2009 kwabangelwa yi-Lehman Bros. ukuwa, i-revisionist kanye nenkumbulo ekhethiwe ibonisa ukuthi u-Lehman wayeyimbangela. Kodwa-ke, lokho akunaki ukushaqeka imakethe eyabhekana nakho ngonyaka odlule nge-Bear Stearns. Ngabhekana nesenzakalo esingavamile lapho i-Bear Stearns iqala ukwehla kwayo. Ngangiseholidini nomndeni wami e-Kefalonia Greece ngesikhathi sokuhlaselwa kwayo yinhliziyo, njengokungathi onkulunkulu basendulo baseGreece 'badungulile' uhlelo, uhlelo lwe-ATM esiqhingini lwehla. Isizathu esashiwo kusihlwa sasiwukuthi eduze nesiqhingi, noma ezweni elikhulu, kwakunokuzamazama komhlaba okuncane. Kamuva ngalobo busuku, ngenkathi ngifunda ngesimo se-Bear Stearns esitolo se-inthanethi ngazibuza, ngokushintshashintsha okuthile, ukuthi singafinyelela yini 'iphoyinti lokuguquguquka' lohlobo. Ingabe 'sasiphelelwe' imali kalula?

NgoJuni 22, 2007, iBear Stearns yathembisa ukuthi izoboleka imali efinyelela ku- $ 3.2 billion ukuze ikhiphe enye yezikhwama zayo, iBear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund, ngenkathi ixoxisana namanye amabhange ukuthi abolekise ngemali eyibambela esinye isikhwama , Isikhwama Esikhuthazekile Esikhuthaziwe Sezikweleti Esenziwe Ngamabanga Asezingeni Eliphezulu. Lesi sigameko sidale ukukhathazeka ngokutheleleka njengoba iBear Stearns ingahle iphoqeleke ukuthi iqede ama-CDO ayo, nokwenze ukuthi kumakwe phansi izimpahla ezifanayo kwamanye amaphothifoliyo. Phakathi nesonto likaJulayi 16, 2007, iBear Stearns iveze ukuthi lezi zimali ezimbili zama-subprime hedge funds zilahlekelwe cishe lonke inani lazo phakathi nokwehla okusheshayo emakethe yemalimboleko ye-subprime. Ngaleso sikhathi i-Bear Stearns yayiyibhange lokutshalwa kwezimali emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuhweba ngezibambiso kanye ne-brokerage, yaze yadayiswa kwa-JPMorgan Chase ngo-2008 ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezimali emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuwohloka komnotho. I-Bear Stearns yayihileleke ekuqinisekiseni izibambiso futhi yakhipha izibambiso eziningi ezisekelwa yimpahla, okwathi endabeni yokubolekwa kwempahla yaphayona nguLewis Ranieri, "uyise wezibambiso zezindlu". Njengoba ukulahlekelwa kwabatshalizimali kukhuphuke kulawo mamakethe ngo-2006 no-2007, inkampani empeleni yandise ukuchayeka kwayo, ikakhulukazi izimpahla ezixhaswe yi-mortgage ezaziyingxenye yenkinga ye-subprime mortgage. NgoMashi 2008, iFederal Reserve Bank yaseNew York yanikeza imali ebolekiwe ephuthumayo ukuze izame ukugwema ukuwa kwenkampani. Le nkampani ayikwazanga ukusindiswa futhi yathengiselwa u-JP Morgan Chase ngo-$10 ngesheya ngalinye, inani elingaphansi kakhulu kwezinkinga zayo zangaphambi kwenhlekelele engamaviki angu-52 ukuphakama kuka-$133.20 ngesheya ngalinye, kodwa hhayi ngaphansi njenge-$2 ngesheya okwakuvunyelwene ngalo ekuqaleni yi-Bear Stearns. kanye no-JP Morgan Chase. Ukuwa kwenkampani kwaba yisandulela sokuwohloka kokulawulwa kobungozi kwemboni yebhange lokutshala imali e-Wall Street ngoSepthemba 2008, kanye nenkinga yezimali emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuwohloka komnotho okwalandela. NgoJanuwari 2010, uJPMorgan wayeka ukusebenzisa igama elithi Bear Stearns. I-Bear Stearns yayiyinkampani yezibambiso yesikhombisa ngobukhulu ngokwemali ephelele. Kusukela ngomhla zingama-30 kuNovemba 2007, i-Bear Stearns yayinenani lenkontileka elivamile elilinganiselwa ku-$13.40 trillion kumathuluzi ezezimali aphuma kokunye, lapho ama- $ 1.85 trillion afakwe ohlwini lwezinkontileka zekusasa nezinketho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Bear Stearns ibiphethe ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-28 zamarandi ezimpahleni 'zezinga lesi-3' ezincwadini zayo ekupheleni kwezimali zika-2007 uma iqhathaniswa nengqikithi yesikhundla sesamba esingu-$11.1 billion kuphela. Le bhiliyoni engu-$11.1 isekele ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-395 ezimpahleni, okusho isilinganiso sesilinganiso esingu-35.5 kuya ku-1. Leli shidi lebhalansi elisebenziseke kakhulu, elihlanganisa amafa amaningi angekho emthethweni futhi okungenzeka angelutho, liholele ekwehleni ngokushesha kwabatshalizimali kanye nokuzethemba kwababolekisi, okwagcina kuhwamuka njengoba bephoqeleka ukuthi babize i-New York Federal Reserve ukuze bagweme ukuqubuka kweqembu eliphikisayo. ingozi engase ivele ekuqedweni ngempoqo. Iqiniso lokuthi i-Bear Stearns yabangela ukuhlaselwa kwenhliziyo okukhulu ohlelweni ngo-2007, lokho bekufanele kubangele imibuzo ebuzwa maqondana ne-solvency kanye nezindlela zokutshala izimali zawo wonke amabhange, kodwa leyo mibuzo mayelana ne-solvency kanye nokusebenza kwemishini yomhlaba wonke. uhlelo lwezezimali aluzange lubonakale ngempela kwaze kwaba ngu-2008, kufanele kube uphawu oluyisixwayiso kanye nesibonakaliso salokho okungenzeka okudlalwayo manje ngaphansi kwesibhakabhaka. Lokhu kuhlasela kwenhliziyo kwemakethe kwakamuva okuhlaselwe ngo-Agasti-Septhemba kungase kubonise ukuthi kuyisiqalo sezinkinga ezimbi kakhulu kune-subprime crisis eyenzeka ngo-2008-2009. Nokho ngokufanayo lokhu kungaba ukuqala kokuvezwa kwezigameko ezingase zithathe isikhathi ukopha ngokuphelele ngohlelo. Kodwa mayelana nokuqhathanisa okuqondile sisesiteji se-Bear Stearns manje hhayi o-Lehman bros. Ngakho-ke ikuphi 'i-Bear Stearns' yethu? Hhayi-ke akulula kangako futhi njengoba kufakazelwa ukuthi bebemane beyi-canary emayini yamalahle eyayivalekile ngaphambi kokuba ingoma ecwebezelayo ibe nomsindo kakhulu. Nokho, uma sibheka uhlelo lwethu lwamabhange njengesibindi sokusebenza kwezezimali emhlabeni jikelele; isitho esinenqwaba yemisebenzi ebalulekile neyinkimbinkimbi: ukuhlanganisa, ukugaya, ukwakha kanye nokukhipha inyongo, ukukhiqiza imikhiqizo engase ibe yingozi futhi ngokuvamile kuhlanzwe uhlelo, bese kuba nenqwaba yezixwayiso ezivela ohlelweni lwamabhange eziphakamisa izihlahla ezimbalwa ihlathi selizowa. Ukubekela eceleni imibuzo yokushoda kwemali kwamabhange aseFrance esisanda kubhekana nakho i-Dexia okuthe, njengomdlalo wesekisi ongavamile esikhathini esidlule seminyaka yama-Victorian, yapakishwa kabusha ngokushesha, yavalwa yayiswa edolobheni elilandelayo ngaphambi kwezingane zase isifunda siyesaba kakhulu. Kodwa ukucabanga ukuthi i-Dexia iyicala elingalodwa ukwelula ukwethembeka kwesistimu yamabhange kanye nokwethembeka kwalezo zinhlaka ezithole ukuthi zamelana nokuhlolwa kwengcindezi kwakamuva, emikhawulweni eqinile. Ngaphandle kokumelana ne-Dexia izimakethe zovalo muva nje zihlangabezane nokuvinjelwa ukuthengisa okufushane ezitokisini zezimali, okunye kwamafutha 'okubuyela esikhathini esizayo' ahlulekile ukusebenza ngo-2008-2009. Namuhla sifunda i-UniCredit, ibhange lase-Italy, amasheya alo amiswa ngemva kokuwa kuphela ngo-7.5%. Akukhona ukuwa okukhathaza izimakethe, noma umphumela wokusulelana noma we-domino, njengoba ngokungafani ne-Bear Stearns lolu akulona uhlelo lwamabhange okukhulunywa ngalo, lolu yizinkinga zezikweletu ezizimele ezibeka imibuzo nge-solvency yezizwe, hhayi. amabhange ngamanye futhi lokho bekuwukuthi lesi simo sihluke kakhulu ku-2008-2009. Kodwa-ke, uma i-Bear Stearns yayiyisibonakaliso sika-Lehman, ingabe iGreece ingaba ngummemezeli wezinqumo ezinkulu ezizimele?

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