Ngabe ukulungiswa okufishane, okubukhali, ezimakethe zamasheya, kunikezwe amabhange aphakathi izaba zokunganyusi amanani entengo?
“Taper tantrum” yigama elisetshenziselwa ukubhekisa ekwandeni komkhiqizo ka-2013 eMnyangweni Wezezimali wase-US, okuholele ekusebenziseni kwe-Federal Reserve kwe-tapering ukunciphisa kancane inani lemali ebikudla emnothweni.
Abahwebi nabatshalizimali bangakhumbula inkulumo ethi "taper tantrum". I-Fed ibicubungula kuphela ukunciphisa imali yayo engama- $ 85 billion yokuthengwa kwezibopho zanyanga zonke, noma ngabe yimali encane engokomfanekiso efana ne- $ 5 billion. Usihlalo weFed ngaleso sikhathi, uBen Bernanke, waya emisakazweni nasezitudiyo wachaza ukuthi noma yikuphi ukuthwebula kuzoba kuncane ngendlela emangalisayo ekuqaleni nokuthi wayengacabangi ukuthi iZIRP (inqubomgomo yenzalo yenani lenzalo) izoshintshwa, kuze kube ekuqaleni kuka-2015.
Impela, ukuthwetshulwa kwe-QE okwenzekile empeleni, bekungekho nzima njengoba abatshalizimali besaba, izimakethe ziphefumula ngokubambisana futhi zahlangana, kwaze kwathi lapho i-QE ihoxiswa ngo-Okthoba 2014, izimakethe zaqala ukushaya isilevu futhi yaqhubeka nokuphakama. Futhi ngaphandle kokulungiswa okufishane ngonyaka we-2015, okulethwe yizikhalazo mayelana nomnotho waseChina, izimakethe ezinkulu ze-USA zamasheya zihlanganyele njalo ukukhipha amarekhodi aphezulu, kuze kufike kuJanuwari 2018.
Izimakethe zamasheya zamanje zithengisiwe zikhumbuza isimo maqondana nezehlakalo ezimbi zokuhlukumezeka. Isikhwama semali eyishumi seminyaka eyishumi e-US sikhuphuke ngesikhathi kuthengiswa muva nje ukusondela ezingeni elisatshwa kakhulu le-3%, ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi imali eshibhile izoqala ukunyamalala nokukhuphuka kwamandla emali kukhuphuke. Okushiwo nomqondo kwakuwukuthi i-FOMC / Fed ngakho-ke izodinga ukukhuphula inani lenzalo ebalulekile ukuze ikwazi ukubhekana nokwanda kwamandla emali (ikakhulukazi ukwehla kwamandla emali), okwenyuka kwaba ngaphezu kuka-4.4% we-YoY.
Ukukhuphula inani lenzalo enkulu ngokushesha nangokukhuphuka okukhulu, kungathinta amandla ezinkampani okuboleka, ukutshala imali nokuboleka, kanye nokuhlanganyela ezingxenyeni zokuthengwa kwamasheya. Abatshalizimali bazophinde baphenduke baphume emalini, baye ezimpahleni ezikhokha isivuno esikhulu, ngakho-ke izimali ziwe ngenani. Izikhulu ezahlukahlukene zeFed zaqala ukusikisela ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani bekungeke kube nobudlova (ukuboleka okungabizi okuncane kuzohlala kushibhile isikhashana) futhi imakethe ibambe ukwehla kwayo futhi yahlehlisa kakhulu ukulahleka kwakamuva.
Kunjengokungathi izimakethe zihlanganyele ndawonye kuFed ukuxwayisa ukuthi isiphakamiso sokukhuphuka kwamazinga, ngaphandle kwesilinganiso i-FOMC esivele isiphakamisile ngoDisemba kungadala ukuthi izimakethe zibhidlike. Yize iqiniso lokuthi ubudlelwano phakathi kwempilo yomnotho jikelele kanye nempilo yezimakethe zamasheya bungavimbekile futhi bunciphisile, amabhange amakhulu nohulumeni bawo babonakala bethukile ngokulungiswa, noma imakethe yebhere iba ngokoqobo. Ukulungiswa okungama-25% ezimakethe zase-USA kuzosula kuphela izinzuzo zango-2017 ku-DJIA naku-SPX, okushaya kakhulu, kodwa okungatholakali ngokwandulelwa ngumlando.
I-FOMC / Fed ibiphakamise ukuthi amanani amathathu azonyuka ngo-2018, manje angaphazanyiswa ngokuthengiswa bese ebuyisela emuva ukunyuka kokuqala (okufakwe ipensela ngoMashi ekuqaleni) kuya kuMeyi, noma kamuva. Lokhu kuzobuyisela emuva uhlelo lokuqala ukwenza okujwayelekile. Inhloso yokuqala bekuyizinga lama-2.75% ngasekupheleni kuka-2018, isinqumo esinqunyelwe isikhathi ebesilokhu sishaya abasindisi abavamile nabahola impesheni e-USA isikhathi eside kakhulu.
Abasindisi babone ukuthi amanani akhuphukela ku-1.5% ngo-2017, noma kunjalo, noma yikuphi ukuzuza kuye kwaphikiswa ukulahleka kwedola kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali kudla ukubonga kwemali. Inkomba yedola yehle ngenani layo elikhulu kunawo wonke eminyakeni eminingi ngonyaka we-2017, ngakho-ke amandla okuthenga amaMelika ancishiswa. Ngesinye isikhathi iFed kufanele ithuthukise inani ledola namanani wabasindisa imali, futhi lokhu kungenziwa kuphela ngamanani wenzalo angaguquki nokunikeza izimakethe nabatshalizimali isiqondiso esanele sokuya phambili esenzekayo. Akufanele kube yisibopho seFed ukugcina amanani emakethe yesitoko emazingeni e-bubble.
Naphezu kokuthengiswa, i-UK Bank yaseNgilandi (ngokusho kwabezindaba) yayi "hawkish" ekulandiseni kwabo, ngemuva kokumemezela isinqumo sabo ngesonto eledlule ukugcina inani lenzalo yase-UK lingashintshi ku-0.5%. Kodwa-ke, i-hawkish kungenzeka ukuthi yayiwukweqisa. Umbusi uthe ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuzoba kukhulu futhi kuvame ukwenzeka kaningi, kepha uma kuhlolisiswa, isitatimende esinjalo esinesibindi sokukhuphuka sibe ngu-1.25% ngo-2020.
Ngaphambi kwezinkinga zebhange nezezezimali zika-2008, isilinganiso samanani aphansi e-UK sasiseduze no-5%, silinganiswe ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-30. Ngakho-ke ukukhuphukela ku-1.25% kungama-75% amafushane wokwenza okujwayelekile. Futhi kuzobonakala ukuthi ngabe lokhu kulungiswa kwakamuva e-UK FTSE 100 kuzoba nomthelela ekuthatheni izinqumo kweBoE.
Amabhange amakhulu angahle abhekane nesinqumo esinzima, ayazivumela izimakethe zamasheya ziwe, zivuna amanani wenzalo kanye nemakethe yama-bond? Esimweni sesikebhe sokusindisa abaphonsa ijakhethi yempilo kubani; izimakethe zezimali, noma umnotho obanzi? Ukukhetha okunzima, kepha imali yabakhokhi bentela iyabakhokhela ukuthi benze izinqumo kanye neningi labakhokhi bentela okufanele babekwe kuqala.
« Izimakethe zase-US zikhuphuka ngemuva kwezinsuku ezimbili zokulahleka, inkomba yedola laseMelika, futhi ama-yen ayenyuka uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWESONTO 26/2 - 2/3 | Isonto lezibalo ze-GDP zaseCanada, e-USA, eFrance nase-Italy, zingakhombisa amandla okukhula komhlaba osentshonalanga, ngenkathi ama-CPI ahlukahlukene ezokwembula izinga lezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali »
