UJan 28 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-1760 • Amazwana Off kubathengisi be-FX bahlala begxile ebuhleni, njengoba inkulumo-mpikiswano ye-Brexit ibuyela ePhalamende kuleli sonto.
I-Sterling isanda kugxila kakhulu, njengoba kusondela isehlukaniso sase-UK ne-European Union; ihlelelwe umhla zingama-29 kuNdasa 2019. Imakethe ye-FX ivame ukubizwa ngokuthi "i-reactive", ngokuphambene "nokubikezela" futhi leyo ncazelo ibonakala iqinisiwe, ngenani elikhuphukile le-sterling uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo eyinhloko, emasontweni amuva nje.
Ithemba ezimakethe ze-FX for sterling liye lathuthuka phakathi nalezi zinsuku ezimbili ezedlule, ngenxa yokungabi bikho kwe-Brexit ebukeka incane kakhulu. IPhalamende lase-UK manje selisesimweni esihle sokulawula lolu hlelo, ngendlela yokuthi kuzwakale izichibiyelo ezihlukahlukene zamaLungu ePhalamende futhi okungenzeka ukuthi zivotelwe, ngaleyo ndlela yeqe abaphathi bakahulumeni abambalwa be-Conservative. Umzwelo wezombangazwe othuthukisiwe ubangele i-GBP/USD ukuba ikhuphukele endaweni ephakeme engakaze ibonwe kusukela ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2018. Isibambo esibucayi se-1.300 se-GBP / USD sabuyiselwa ngoLwesithathu ngoJanuwari 23rd, kanti umbhangqwana omkhulu uphela cishe ngo-1% ngoLwesihlanu 25th, njengoba yephule i-1.310. I-EUR/GBP ibuyele emuva isuka kokuphezulu ngo-2019 yamasenti angama-92 ngephawundi yase-UK, yaya kumasenti angama-86.
Kodwa-ke, naphezu kokusebenza kahle kwakamuva kwe-sterling ngokumelene nontanga bayo abakhulu, abahwebi abaye bagcina ukholo oluhle kakhulu kanye nenkolelo yokuthi inhlanganisela kahulumeni wase-UK kanye nePhalamende izothola isisombululo se-Brexit (okuyinto elimaza kakhulu amathuba ezomnotho e-UK. ), kudingeka uhlale uqaphe ngokwedlulele, phakathi nesonto elizayo. Noma yiziphi izindaba ze-Brexit ezingezinhle noma ezinhle, cishe zizoba nomthelela ngokushesha enanini le-sterling, njengoba ukubala wehla kuqhubeka. Ngakho-ke, phakathi namasonto asondela osukwini lwe-Brexit olusemthethweni lwangoMashi 29, sizofakaza ukwanda kokunaka nokusebenza okuhle kakhulu, ikakhulukazi njengoba izinkampani kufanele zilungise ngokushesha izindawo zazo zokubiyela, abahwebi nabo kuzodingeka basabele ezimweni ezishintsha ngokushesha ngokufanele.
NgoLwesibili Januwari 29, izichibiyelo ezihlukahlukene zamaLungu ePhalamende zizobekwa phambi kwephalamende, ukuze kuvinjelwe isivumelwano se-Brexit, i-sterling ingase isabele njengoba izinkulumo-mpikiswano namavoti alandelayo embulwa. Abadayisi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi babhekisise isikhathi semiphumela yangempela njengoba imenyezelwa, okungase kube kusihlwa, isikhathi saseYurophu.
Undunankulu wase-UK uMay kumele aqale ukwethula olunye uhlelo lwe-Brexit kusukela kuleli sonto, ngemuva kwesiphakamiso sokuhoxa asithole ku-EU, ngemuva kweminyaka emibili yezingxoxo, sanqatshwa yiPhalamende amasonto amabili edlule, njengoba ebekezelele ivoti elirekhodiwe. ukulahlekelwa eNdlu Yezikhulu.
Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, i-GPB/USD yehla ngesibambo esingu-1.240, kuyilapho i-EUR/GBP isongela ukukhipha u-0.92, njengoba ithemba lokungaphumeleli kwesivumelwano ku-EU lalibukeka lingathandeki. Kwangathi ngemuva kwalokho walahlekelwa yivoti lakhe le-HoC futhi wenza umkhankaso omuhle kakhulu; ubuhlakani obuqoqiwe bezimakethe buqale ukubheja ukuthi isimo sokungavunyelwana sibukeka sincane kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, i-GBP/USD 1.240 ephansi minyaka yonke, inikeza inkomba yokuthi umuzwa ungashintsha ngokushesha kangakanani, uma iPhalamende lase-UK lehluleka ukwenza inqubekelaphambili ezinsukwini ezingama-30 zokuhlala ePhalamende, ngaphambi kosuku olusemthethweni lokuphuma.
Naphezu kokuzikhukhumeza okungafanele kwamaLungu ePhalamende amaningi ase-UK, abaxoxisana abahamba phambili be-EU baphinde bagcizelela ukuthi ukuphikisa ngesivumelwano sokuhoxiswa ngeke kuphinde kuvulwe. Okuwukuphela kwegatsha lomnqumo elinikezwe i-UK livela kuxoxisana oholayo we-EU uMichel Barnier ngempelasonto. Uphakamise ukuthi uma i-UK ivuma inyunyana yaphakade yezokuthutha, lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “i-backstop” (indlela yokulondoloza isimo sase-Ireland sase-Europe kanye neSivumelwano SoLwesihlanu Oluhle) kungasuswa.
UMsombuluko womhla zingama-28 kuJanuwari wusuku oluzolile lwezindaba zekhalenda ezinomthelela omkhulu kuye kophezulu, nokho, njengoba kubhekiselwa odabeni lwe-Brexit, imicimbi yezepolitiki nezindaba ezisematheni ezivame ukuhambisa izimakethe zethu ze-FX. Futhi izindaba ezinkulu zamanje zezepolitiki ezithinta zonke izimakethe zezimali, azigcini nje e-UK
Ukuvalwa kukahulumeni e-USA, osekudale ukukhubazeka kwabasebenzi bakahulumeni abayisigidi, abebebhekene nenyanga yesibili bengaholi, kufinyelele esimeni esibucayi ngoLwesihlanu kusihlwa. Njengoba esinye sezindiza zaseNew York sivalwa ngenxa yokukhathazeka ngokuphepha kanye nezilinganiso zakhe siqu zehla zaba phansi kusukela agcotshwa, ukugxila kukaMongameli Trump kwagxila kakhulu; wacwayiza kuqala empini yakhe ehlulekile yemali engu-$4b yokwakha udonga, phakathi kweMexico ne-USA.
Umemezele ukuthi uzosiza uxhaso lukahulumeni ukuze luqale kabusha. Ukuvala ucingo kwenzeke ngoLwesihlanu kusihlwa/ngoMgqibelo ekuseni. Uma izimakethe ze-equity zase-USA sezivulwe ngoMsombuluko ntambama, abadayisi bazokwazi ukukala ukuthi ukunyuswa kwemizwa okubonwe emasontweni adlule, kuzogcinwa yini. Lowo muzwa wakamuva, othuthukisiwe usekelwe ubudlelwano be-China - USA obuncibilika emasontweni asanda kwedlula, ngemva kokuba izikhulu zase-China zizibophezele okwesikhashana ekuthengeni okukhulu okuvela e-USA, ukuze kuthuthukiswe ibhalansi yebhalansi ye-USA yezinkokhelo ne-China. Mayelana nokuthi yini i-USA engathumela yona ngemali ephansi emnothweni wembulunga yonke okhula ngokushesha, ukuze kuncishiswe ukushoda okwandayo, kuyisimangaliso okufanele sicatshangelwe.
I-dollar yase-US iwile ngokumelene nontanga bayo abaningana emasontweni amuva nje, abenzi bezimakethe bangase bahlulele ukuthi i-FOMC ne-Fed ingase iguqule ukukholelwa kwabo kwangaphambili; ukukhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo zase-US izikhathi ezimbalwa ngo-2019, ukuze baqedele lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “inqubo yabo yokujwayela”; ukukhuphula amanani afinyelele ku-3.5% ngo-Q4 2019. Njengoba izindaba zohwebo lwaseShayina zisagxilise imiqondo yabatshalizimali kanye nezimakethe zezabelomali ezisalulama kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2018 ziyadayiswa, abahlaziyi abaningi baphakamisa ukuthi i-FOMC ingase yamukele futhi yembule inqubomgomo embi kakhulu, ngesikhathi sabo. okulandelayo okuhleliwe, imihlangano yokubeka izinga lenzalo. Idola lehle kakhulu ngo-2019 uma liqhathaniswa ne-CHF ne-CAD. I-USD nayo yehlile uma iqhathaniswa womabili amadola ase-Australasia; I-AUD ne-NZD.
IMICIMBI YEKHALENDA LEZOMNOTHO NGOMHLAKA 28 JANUARY
UMBIKO Wamaminithi Womhlangano Wenqubomgomo Yezezimali ye-JPY BoJ
I-USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec)
I-EUR ECB Inkulumo kaMongameli uDraghi
Inkulumo kaMbusi we-GBP BoE uCarney INKULUMO
« Idola ezinweleni ze-Fed, lidonsa kanzima isonto elilodwa njengoba isignali yamanani ilindile I-USD iza ngaphansi kokuhlolwa, njengoba abadayisi be-FX beqala ukunaka umhlangano we-FOMC kuleli sonto. »
Abathengisi be-FX basalokhu begxile ebuhleni, njengoba inkulumo-mpikiswano ye-Brexit ibuyela ePhalamende kuleli sonto.
UJan 28 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-1760 • Amazwana Off kubathengisi be-FX bahlala begxile ebuhleni, njengoba inkulumo-mpikiswano ye-Brexit ibuyela ePhalamende kuleli sonto.
I-Sterling isanda kugxila kakhulu, njengoba kusondela isehlukaniso sase-UK ne-European Union; ihlelelwe umhla zingama-29 kuNdasa 2019. Imakethe ye-FX ivame ukubizwa ngokuthi "i-reactive", ngokuphambene "nokubikezela" futhi leyo ncazelo ibonakala iqinisiwe, ngenani elikhuphukile le-sterling uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo eyinhloko, emasontweni amuva nje.
Ithemba ezimakethe ze-FX for sterling liye lathuthuka phakathi nalezi zinsuku ezimbili ezedlule, ngenxa yokungabi bikho kwe-Brexit ebukeka incane kakhulu. IPhalamende lase-UK manje selisesimweni esihle sokulawula lolu hlelo, ngendlela yokuthi kuzwakale izichibiyelo ezihlukahlukene zamaLungu ePhalamende futhi okungenzeka ukuthi zivotelwe, ngaleyo ndlela yeqe abaphathi bakahulumeni abambalwa be-Conservative. Umzwelo wezombangazwe othuthukisiwe ubangele i-GBP/USD ukuba ikhuphukele endaweni ephakeme engakaze ibonwe kusukela ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2018. Isibambo esibucayi se-1.300 se-GBP / USD sabuyiselwa ngoLwesithathu ngoJanuwari 23rd, kanti umbhangqwana omkhulu uphela cishe ngo-1% ngoLwesihlanu 25th, njengoba yephule i-1.310. I-EUR/GBP ibuyele emuva isuka kokuphezulu ngo-2019 yamasenti angama-92 ngephawundi yase-UK, yaya kumasenti angama-86.
Kodwa-ke, naphezu kokusebenza kahle kwakamuva kwe-sterling ngokumelene nontanga bayo abakhulu, abahwebi abaye bagcina ukholo oluhle kakhulu kanye nenkolelo yokuthi inhlanganisela kahulumeni wase-UK kanye nePhalamende izothola isisombululo se-Brexit (okuyinto elimaza kakhulu amathuba ezomnotho e-UK. ), kudingeka uhlale uqaphe ngokwedlulele, phakathi nesonto elizayo. Noma yiziphi izindaba ze-Brexit ezingezinhle noma ezinhle, cishe zizoba nomthelela ngokushesha enanini le-sterling, njengoba ukubala wehla kuqhubeka. Ngakho-ke, phakathi namasonto asondela osukwini lwe-Brexit olusemthethweni lwangoMashi 29, sizofakaza ukwanda kokunaka nokusebenza okuhle kakhulu, ikakhulukazi njengoba izinkampani kufanele zilungise ngokushesha izindawo zazo zokubiyela, abahwebi nabo kuzodingeka basabele ezimweni ezishintsha ngokushesha ngokufanele.
NgoLwesibili Januwari 29, izichibiyelo ezihlukahlukene zamaLungu ePhalamende zizobekwa phambi kwephalamende, ukuze kuvinjelwe isivumelwano se-Brexit, i-sterling ingase isabele njengoba izinkulumo-mpikiswano namavoti alandelayo embulwa. Abadayisi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi babhekisise isikhathi semiphumela yangempela njengoba imenyezelwa, okungase kube kusihlwa, isikhathi saseYurophu.
Undunankulu wase-UK uMay kumele aqale ukwethula olunye uhlelo lwe-Brexit kusukela kuleli sonto, ngemuva kwesiphakamiso sokuhoxa asithole ku-EU, ngemuva kweminyaka emibili yezingxoxo, sanqatshwa yiPhalamende amasonto amabili edlule, njengoba ebekezelele ivoti elirekhodiwe. ukulahlekelwa eNdlu Yezikhulu.
Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, i-GPB/USD yehla ngesibambo esingu-1.240, kuyilapho i-EUR/GBP isongela ukukhipha u-0.92, njengoba ithemba lokungaphumeleli kwesivumelwano ku-EU lalibukeka lingathandeki. Kwangathi ngemuva kwalokho walahlekelwa yivoti lakhe le-HoC futhi wenza umkhankaso omuhle kakhulu; ubuhlakani obuqoqiwe bezimakethe buqale ukubheja ukuthi isimo sokungavunyelwana sibukeka sincane kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, i-GBP/USD 1.240 ephansi minyaka yonke, inikeza inkomba yokuthi umuzwa ungashintsha ngokushesha kangakanani, uma iPhalamende lase-UK lehluleka ukwenza inqubekelaphambili ezinsukwini ezingama-30 zokuhlala ePhalamende, ngaphambi kosuku olusemthethweni lokuphuma.
Naphezu kokuzikhukhumeza okungafanele kwamaLungu ePhalamende amaningi ase-UK, abaxoxisana abahamba phambili be-EU baphinde bagcizelela ukuthi ukuphikisa ngesivumelwano sokuhoxiswa ngeke kuphinde kuvulwe. Okuwukuphela kwegatsha lomnqumo elinikezwe i-UK livela kuxoxisana oholayo we-EU uMichel Barnier ngempelasonto. Uphakamise ukuthi uma i-UK ivuma inyunyana yaphakade yezokuthutha, lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “i-backstop” (indlela yokulondoloza isimo sase-Ireland sase-Europe kanye neSivumelwano SoLwesihlanu Oluhle) kungasuswa.
UMsombuluko womhla zingama-28 kuJanuwari wusuku oluzolile lwezindaba zekhalenda ezinomthelela omkhulu kuye kophezulu, nokho, njengoba kubhekiselwa odabeni lwe-Brexit, imicimbi yezepolitiki nezindaba ezisematheni ezivame ukuhambisa izimakethe zethu ze-FX. Futhi izindaba ezinkulu zamanje zezepolitiki ezithinta zonke izimakethe zezimali, azigcini nje e-UK
Ukuvalwa kukahulumeni e-USA, osekudale ukukhubazeka kwabasebenzi bakahulumeni abayisigidi, abebebhekene nenyanga yesibili bengaholi, kufinyelele esimeni esibucayi ngoLwesihlanu kusihlwa. Njengoba esinye sezindiza zaseNew York sivalwa ngenxa yokukhathazeka ngokuphepha kanye nezilinganiso zakhe siqu zehla zaba phansi kusukela agcotshwa, ukugxila kukaMongameli Trump kwagxila kakhulu; wacwayiza kuqala empini yakhe ehlulekile yemali engu-$4b yokwakha udonga, phakathi kweMexico ne-USA.
Umemezele ukuthi uzosiza uxhaso lukahulumeni ukuze luqale kabusha. Ukuvala ucingo kwenzeke ngoLwesihlanu kusihlwa/ngoMgqibelo ekuseni. Uma izimakethe ze-equity zase-USA sezivulwe ngoMsombuluko ntambama, abadayisi bazokwazi ukukala ukuthi ukunyuswa kwemizwa okubonwe emasontweni adlule, kuzogcinwa yini. Lowo muzwa wakamuva, othuthukisiwe usekelwe ubudlelwano be-China - USA obuncibilika emasontweni asanda kwedlula, ngemva kokuba izikhulu zase-China zizibophezele okwesikhashana ekuthengeni okukhulu okuvela e-USA, ukuze kuthuthukiswe ibhalansi yebhalansi ye-USA yezinkokhelo ne-China. Mayelana nokuthi yini i-USA engathumela yona ngemali ephansi emnothweni wembulunga yonke okhula ngokushesha, ukuze kuncishiswe ukushoda okwandayo, kuyisimangaliso okufanele sicatshangelwe.
I-dollar yase-US iwile ngokumelene nontanga bayo abaningana emasontweni amuva nje, abenzi bezimakethe bangase bahlulele ukuthi i-FOMC ne-Fed ingase iguqule ukukholelwa kwabo kwangaphambili; ukukhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo zase-US izikhathi ezimbalwa ngo-2019, ukuze baqedele lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “inqubo yabo yokujwayela”; ukukhuphula amanani afinyelele ku-3.5% ngo-Q4 2019. Njengoba izindaba zohwebo lwaseShayina zisagxilise imiqondo yabatshalizimali kanye nezimakethe zezabelomali ezisalulama kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2018 ziyadayiswa, abahlaziyi abaningi baphakamisa ukuthi i-FOMC ingase yamukele futhi yembule inqubomgomo embi kakhulu, ngesikhathi sabo. okulandelayo okuhleliwe, imihlangano yokubeka izinga lenzalo. Idola lehle kakhulu ngo-2019 uma liqhathaniswa ne-CHF ne-CAD. I-USD nayo yehlile uma iqhathaniswa womabili amadola ase-Australasia; I-AUD ne-NZD.
IMICIMBI YEKHALENDA LEZOMNOTHO NGOMHLAKA 28 JANUARY
UMBIKO Wamaminithi Womhlangano Wenqubomgomo Yezezimali ye-JPY BoJ
I-USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec)
I-EUR ECB Inkulumo kaMongameli uDraghi
Inkulumo kaMbusi we-GBP BoE uCarney INKULUMO
« Idola ezinweleni ze-Fed, lidonsa kanzima isonto elilodwa njengoba isignali yamanani ilindile I-USD iza ngaphansi kokuhlolwa, njengoba abadayisi be-FX beqala ukunaka umhlangano we-FOMC kuleli sonto. »