I-Dollar-Positive Sterling kanye ne-Euro Moves Against Stagflation Fears
Ngenxa yeholide Losuku Lwabasebenzi e-United States, amanani okuhweba abephansi ngoMsombuluko. Evikini elizayo, umsebenzi wokuhweba kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule, futhi umsebenzi usuwonke uzokwanda ngemuva kokuphela kwenkathi yamaholide e-US naseYurophu.
Ukuhamba kwezimali zomhlaba kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu ezintengweni zempahla phakathi nale nyanga. Ngokukhulayo, kukholakala ukuthi izilinganiso zenzalo zomhlaba ziseduze nenani eliphakeme nokuthi i-Federal Reserve kanye ne-ECB ngeke baphinde banyuse amanani enzalo.
Ukugxila kuzodlulela kokuthi amanani enzalo aphezulu azohlala isikhathi esingakanani. Njengamanje, kubonakala sengathi amabhange amakhulu azohlehla ngokumelene nokulindelwe ukuthi ama-rates azokwehliswa ngokushesha kunokuba kamuva. Ngaphezu kokumisa inqubekelaphambili ekunciphiseni izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali, amanani entengo aphezulu azoqinisa okulindelekile kwenqubomgomo yezimali eqinile evela kumabhange amakhulu. Ukwesaba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzokwanda uma idatha yezomnotho iphakamisa ukwehla, kuhlanganiswe nokukhula okubuthakathaka kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo.
USepthemba uvame ukuba yinyanga enezitayela zesizini ezingezinhle, ezithinta izimakethe kabi. Yize ukwehla komnotho kuyeza futhi nemakethe yezabasebenzi iya ngokuya isithamba, uRabobank uthe iBrent manje isisondela ku-$90. Ukukhiqizwa kwamaShayina kusakhula yize izinsizakalo ze-Caixin zanamuhla ze-PMI zehle zaya ku-51.8 zisuka ku-54.1, ngakho-ke akucaci ukuthi ukulandisa okujwayelekile “kokwehla kwamanani ngokushesha!” noma “amasheya alokhu enyuka!” ngisabambe. Esikhundleni salokho, i-supply-side stagflation iyingozi.
Ngaphandle uma i-China ijezisa izimpendulo zenqubomgomo yezimali ezinolaka, isifiso sokudla esiyingozi singase sibe ntekenteke.
Amanani okushintshanisa ama-Euro (EUR) Namuhla
Naphezu kwenkulumo kaNagel ka-Hawkish ngoMsombuluko, imininingwane ye-Euro-Zone yehlulekile ukuthethelela isimo esinolaka. Naphezu kokwenyuka ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali ngoSepthemba, inkomba yokuthenjwa yabatshalizimali ye-Euro-Zone Sentix yehle yaya ku- -21.5 isuka ku- -18.9. Lokhu bekungaphansi kwezibikezelo zokuvumelana ze--19.6 futhi eduze nokufundwa okuphansi kakhulu kwango-2023.
Emhlanganweni wenqubomgomo we-ECB kaSepthemba, izimakethe zisalindele ukukhuphuka kwezinga. Esikhathini sokuhweba sangoMsombuluko, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) lehle ngaphansi nje kuka-1.0800, alikwazanga ukubamba ngaphezu kwezinga.
Ekuqaleni kukaLwesibili, i-EUR/USD yehlele ezingeni layo eliphansi kakhulu ezinyangeni ezimbili, ngaphansi kuka-1.0765, ngenxa yokuntula ukuzethemba emnothweni waseShayina.
I-US Dollar (USD) Amazinga Okushintshaniswa kwe-Outlook
UMsombuluko bekuyiholide lezimakethe zaseMelika ngenxa yoSuku Lwabasebenzi. Ngenxa yokuthi izimakethe zisagaya imininingwane yemisebenzi ekhishwe ngesonto eledlule, ukukhishwa kwedatha yase-US esikhathini esifushane nakho kuzonqunyelwa.
Kube khona uguquko oluncane lwenetha ekulindelweni kwezinga lenzalo ye-Federal Reserve, namathuba okunyuka kwezinga likaSepthemba abonwa ngaphansi kuka-10% namathuba okukhuphuka ngoNovemba asondele ku-40%. Inqubomgomo ye-Fed kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale inemikhawulo.
Esikhathini esiseduze, kuzoba nokukhishwa kwedatha okulinganiselwe, nezimo zomhlaba eziqashwe ngokucophelela. Idola lizogcina ithoni eqinile ngaphandle uma kukhona ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwesifiso sokudla engozini kanye nokwethenjwa okwandayo emnothweni womhlaba.
Njengomphumela wedatha yaseShayina, idola liye lathuthuka, ikakhulukazi njengoba i-Country Gardens icele ukuhlela kabusha izinkokhelo zebhondi ezengeziwe. UJoe Capurso, ongusomaqhinga ebhange iCommonwealth Bank of Australia, uthe yize iChina ishintshile inqubomgomo, abahlanganyeli bezimakethe bebengakaqiniseki ngombono weChina womnotho kanye nemali.
Ezinye Izimali
Isibikezelo sokuvumelana sezilinganiso zenzalo emhlanganweni wenqubomgomo yakamuva weBhange Lombuso lase-Australia besingu-4.10%. Ibhange lithi kusengenzeka ukuthi kuqiniswe kabusha inqubomgomo nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali kunyuke kakhulu.
Njengomphumela walesi sinqumo, idola lase-Australia linqabile, futhi idatha yaseShayina ebingenamandla kunaleyo ebilindelwe nayo yalithinta. Kube khona ukwenyuka kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwedola lase-Australia (GBP/AUD) ngaphezu kwe-1.9700, okumake ukuphakama kwezinsuku eziyi-10.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, idatha yaseShayina ebuthaka kunaleyo ebilindelwe iphinde yenza buthaka idola laseNew Zealand, okuholele ekuqiniseni izinga lokushintshana kwedola le-Pound kuya kudola laseNew Zealand (GBP/NZD) laya ku-2.1390.
Usuku Oluzayo
I-US ingase ikhiphe idatha yayo yakamuva yokuthenjwa kwabathengi ngoLwesibili, kodwa ngeke kube khona ukukhishwa kwedatha okukhulu ngoLwesibili. NgoLwesibili, izimakethe zebhondi kanye nezabelomali zase-US zizodlala indima ebalulekile ekunqumeni isiqondiso semakethe iyonke. Phakathi namahora angu-24 alandelayo, intuthuko yaseShayina izohlala inethonya elibalulekile. Ngasekuqaleni kwaleli sonto, i-Australia ikhiphe idatha yayo yekota yesibili ye-GDP, nezibikezelo zokuvumelana zibiza ukukhuphuka kwe-0.3% ngemuva kokukhombisa ukwanda kwe-0.2%.
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