Ama-Bond Markets abomvu: Yini ongayilindela?
Izimakethe zamabhondi zomhlaba zehlele emazingeni azo aphansi kakhulu kusukela okungenani ngo-1990, njengoba abatshalizimali belindele ukuthi amabhange amakhulu akhuphule amanani enzalo ngokushesha lapho ebhekene nokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu kakhulu emashumini eminyaka.
Kwenzekani?
Ukulahlekelwa kwemakethe yebhondi kuwumphumela wokuthi amabhange amakhulu akhuphule amanani enzalo ukuze alwe nokukhuphuka kwamandla emali. Phakathi kwamabhondi nezinga lenzalo, kukhona ifomula yezibalo. Izinga lenzalo liyakhuphuka lapho amabhondi ehla futhi ngokuphambene nalokho.
Ngemuva kokukhuphuka izilinganiso zenzalo okokuqala kusukela ngo-2018, uSihlalo weFederal Reserve uJay Powell usayine ngoMsombuluko ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi laseMelika lizimisele ukusebenza ngamandla uma kudingeka ukuthi lilawule ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo.
Ngemva kwamazwi ka-Fed Chair Powell's hawkish ngoMsombuluko, uMongameli we-St Louis Fed u-Bullard ugcizelele ukukhetha kwakhe ukuthi i-FOMC yenze "ngobudlova" ukuze kugcinwe ukwehla kwamandla emali, ethi i-FOMC ayikwazanga ukulinda izinkinga ze-geopolitical ukuze ziphathwe.
Amabhondi ababomvu
Isivuno samanothi eminyaka emi-2 sase-US, esisengozini enkulu yokubikezela izinga lenzalo ephansi, sifinyelele eminyakeni emithathu ephezulu yamaphesenti angu-2.2 kuleli sonto, sisuka ku-0.73 % ekuqaleni konyaka. Isivuno soMgcinimafa weminyaka emibili sisethubeni lokugxuma kakhulu kwikota kusukela ngo-1984.
Izilinganiso zesikhathi eside nazo zinyukile, nakuba zihamba kancane, ngenxa yokwenyuka okulindelwe ukwehla kwamandla emali, okuqeda isikhalazo sokuba nezibambiso ezinikeza umthombo obikezelwayo wemali engenayo esikhathini esizayo esibonakalayo.
NgoLwesithathu, isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 e-United States sifinyelele ku-2.42 %, izinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoMeyi 2019. Amabhondi eYurophu alandele, ngisho namabhondi kahulumeni eJapane, lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphansi, futhi ibhange eliphakathi kulindeleke ukuthi liphule umthetho. I-hawkish global approach, ilahlekelwe umhlaba kulo nyaka.
I-BoE ne-ECB bajoyina umjaho
Izimakethe manje zibikezela okungenani ukunyuka kwamanani okwengeziwe okuyisikhombisa e-United States kulo nyaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iBhange LaseNgilandi linyuse inzalo okwesithathu kule nyanga, futhi izindleko zokuboleka zesikhashana kungenzeka zikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-2% ekupheleni kuka-2022.
Emhlanganweni wayo wakamuva nje, i-European Central Bank imemezele ukwehliswa kohlelo lokuthenga ibhondi ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe. Umlayezo wayo oshubile uza njengoba abenzi benqubomgomo begxile ekwenyukeni kwamanani emali okurekhodiwe, nakuba i-Eurozone ilinyazwe kanzima yimpi yase-Ukraine kuneminye iminotho eminingi yomhlaba.
Kusho ukuthini ngemakethe yamasheya?
Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo manje kuvela emazingeni aphansi kakhulu, futhi imakethe yamasheya yase-US ibonakala inethezekile ngenani lemakethe lamanje lokukhuphuka kwezinga eliyisikhombisa ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, okwenza izinga le-Fed Funds libe ngaphezudlwana kuka-2%.
Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi izabelo zibuyise ukulahlekelwa kwazo okuningi kusukela iRussia yahlasela i-Ukraine, ama-indices avelele njenge-S&P 500 aqhubekile nokuwa kulo nyaka.
Imicabango yokugcina
Ngokukhula komnotho kuya ngokuya kuntenga, ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed cishe kulinganiselwe. Ngaphezu kokushoda kwamandla nezimpahla, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, kanye nempi eYurophu, umnotho womhlaba uya kancane njengoba i-Federal Reserve ilungiselela ukuqala ukwehlisa ishidi layo lebhalansi.
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