Kutheni le nto abathengisi beFX kufuneka babeke iliso kwisigqibo senqanaba le-FOMC kunye nengxelo yenkomfa yeendaba kaJerome Powell
NgoLwesithathu nge-30 kaJanuwari, nge-7: 00 pm ixesha lase-UK, i-FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) iya kutyhila isigqibo sayo malunga nenqanaba eliphambili lenzala kuqoqosho lwase-USA. Ireyithi yangoku yi-2.5% kwaye lo msitho wekhalenda kulindeleke ukuba ubangele ukuba kungabikho lutshintsho kwizinga, ngokweearhente zeendaba zeReuters kunye neBloomberg, emva kokuba besandula ukwenza ipaneli yezoqoqosho.
I-FOMC ineentloko / izitulo zeebhanki ze-Federal Reserve, zisebenza ngokubambisana noSihlalo weFed uJerome Powell, ukulawula umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali wase-USA. Ikomiti ithathe isigqibo kwi-2018 iphela, ukuba yamkele umgaqo-nkqubo wemali ye-hawkish; bonyusa ngenkani iirhafu nge-0.25% ngalo lonke ixesha, ukuqala into ebizwa ngokuba "yinkqubo yokulungisa imeko yesiqhelo"; ukuzama ukubuyisela inzala engundoqo mhlawumbi kwimbali yesi-3.5%, ngasekupheleni kuka-2019. Uxanduva lwabo kukulawula le nkqubo, ngaphandle kokuphazamisa ukubonakala okubonakalayo kwezoqoqosho kunye nokukhula kwe-GDP, nolona luqoqosho lukhulu emhlabeni. Ukuphunyuka ekubanjweni kweNkqantosi enkulu.
Ngexesha lekota yokugqibela ka-2018 kwaye ngaphezulu kweeveki zokugqibela zonyaka, iimarike zezabelo zamashishini e-USA zathotywa, kunye ne-DJIA, i-SPX kunye ne-NASDAQ konke ukuvala unyaka kubomvu, ngelixa i-Santa Rally edumileyo, ukunyuka okuvusa amadlingozi kumaxabiso e-equity , Ayiphumelelanga ukwenzeka okokuqala kwiminyaka emininzi. Umongameli uTrump wabeka ityala lokudodobala kubugosa bukaMnu Powell, etyhola ityala kwimfazwe yakhe yorhwebo, ngendlela yerhafu kunye neetargo neChina neYurophu.
Ezo mfazwe zorhwebo ziqikelelwa ukuba zichaphazele amanani e-GDP e-USA, xa epapashwa ngoLwesithathu emva kwemini, ngaphambi kokuba i-FOMC icwangciselwe ukuveza isigqibo sayo. Uqikelelo oluvela kwiReuters kukuwela kwi-2.6% ye-GDP yonyaka yokukhula, isanomtsalane, kodwa isilela kufutshane ne-4% yokukhula koqoqosho lwase-USA kutshanje. I-FOMC inokuthi iwabone kwangoko amanani e-GDP njengoko ehlangana iintsuku ezimbini ukusukela ngoLwesibini, okanye banokuthatha elona nani liqwalaselweyo xa sele lipapashiwe, elinokuthi libe nefuthe kwisigqibo senqanaba labo lenzala.
Ayisiyo isibhengezo nje senqanaba lenzala elinokubangela ukuba iimarike zethu zeFX zihambe; Abahlalutyi, abenzi beemarike kunye nabarhwebi abazimeleyo, baya kuyibek'esweni inkomfa yoonondaba uJerome Powell ubambe isiqingatha seyure kamva, ngayo nayiphi na imikhondo malunga notshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali.
Bonke abathathi-nxaxheba beFX baya kumamela ubungqina, ngokubhekisa phambili, ukufumanisa ukuba uMnu.Powell kunye ne-FOMC bayitshintshile imigaqo-nkqubo yabo. Ngokukodwa, baya kumamela ngenyameko nabuphi na ubungqina kwingxelo yakhe, ukuba i-FOMC kunye neFed ziye zatshintsha umgaqo-nkqubo kwaye zamkela imeko ethe kratya. Oko kungakhokelela ekubeni ibhanki esembindini kunye nekomiti ingaqinisi umgaqo-nkqubo (ukunyusa amaxabiso) ngomsindo njengoko bebechazile ngaphambili.
Nangona kunjalo, ingxelo inokuqinisekisa ukuba i-FOMC isendleleni yokunyusa amaxabiso kwi-2019 nganye, ngokwezibophelelo zabo zangaphambili. Banokuba neenkxalabo malunga nokukhula kwehlabathi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuwa kwe-GDP, iimfazwe zorhwebo neTshayina, kodwa zilungiselele ukubeka ezi nkxalabo kwelinye icala zikholelwa ukuba inkqubo yokumisela inqanaba ayinakumiswa okwethutyana, ngokusekwe kwidatha yakutshanje.
Nokuba sithatha siphi isigqibo, nokuba leliphi na ibali likaMnumzana uPowell alisa kwinkomfa yakhe noonondaba, ngokwembali, nasiphi na isigqibo senqanaba lenzala yibhanki ephambili kunye nezitetimenti ezihamba nazo, zezinye zeziganeko zekhalenda ezibaluleke kakhulu ezinokuthi ngokwesiko zihambise iimarike zeFX, kwimali efanelekileyo kwibhanki enkulu. Unoko engqondweni, abarhwebi beFX baya kucetyiswa ukuba babhale iminyhadala, ukuze babe kwimeko yokulawula izikhundla zabo kunye nokulindelwa kwe-USD.
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