Amashishini ase-US abuyisele ukuvalela ngaphakathi kwiinzuzo ezilungileyo ze-2018, isalathiso sedola yaseMelika, inyathelo lexabiso leFX alikho, njengoko ezona zibini zithengisa kurhwebo
Iimarike ezinkulu zaseMelika kunye nezalathiso ngoku zifumene uninzi lomhlaba olahlekileyo onikezelwe kwiveki ephelileyo; i-DJIA ivale i-1.70%, i-SPX inyuke nge-1.39% kwaye i-NASDAQ yafudukela kwindawo elungileyo kulo nyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku; inyuke nge-1.57% ngosuku kunye ne-1.142 ngo-2018. Imakethi iyonke ye-10% yehla ngee-indices ezintathu eziphambili, eziphawula ulungiso lobuchwephesha, ngoku yehlise ukuya kwi-circa eyi-7.5% ukusuka ekuphakameni, nge-DJIA ngoku ibhalisa -0.48 % unyaka ukuya kumhla wokuphulukana ne-2018 kunye ne-SPX -0.68%.
Njengoko isivuno seminyaka elishumi se-Treasury bond sibuye umva sivela kwi-2.90% kwinqanaba losuku laya kwi-2.85%, inzala yokunyuka kwenzala iye yehla. Abatyalomali banokuthi bajonge ngokukhawuleza uqikelelo lweYoY lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-CPI yase-USA, ngenxa yokupapashwa ngoLwesithathu, beqikelela ukuwa kwe-1.9% kwaye bathathe umbono wokuba i-selloff igqityiwe. Ngokwedatha yemarike yaseMelika, abatyali zimali bathathe irekhodi eyi- $ 30.6bn kwiingxowa-mali zamazwe ehlabathi kwiveki ephelileyo ngexesha lokuthengisa, kwaye i-US ibona ukurhoxa okukhulu ngenxa yokungazinzi okubonakalayo eWall Street. Iziphumo eziphuma kwimali yesitokhwe yaseMelika zizonke zafikelela kwi- $ 34bn kwiintsuku ezintlanu zorhwebo ukuya ngoLwesithathu, ngokwe-data ye-EPFR, emele ukuphuma okuphuma phambili ukusukela ngeengxaki zebhanki zika-2008. Iimakethi zingaqala ukubona ukungena ngokukhawuleza kubuya kwiintsuku ezizayo. Ngomhla ozolileyo weendaba zekhalenda yezoqoqosho e-USA ingxelo yohlahlo-lwabiwo mali yanyanga zonke iphosakele uqikelelo, ngokuza nge $ 49.2 yezigidigidi ngoJanuwari.
Isalathiso sedola siwe malunga. I-0.3% emini, njengoko idola livale usuku ezantsi malunga ne-0.3% v ye-euro kwaye isondele kwiflethi xa ithelekiswa: i-franc yaseSwitzerland, iponti yase-UK kunye ne-yen. Igolide yenyuka malunga. I-0.5% ukuya kwi-1,324 yeedola nge-ounce, ngelixa i-WTI ihlala ingaphantsi kwe-60 ebaluleke kakhulu emgqonyeni. Isivuno seminyaka elishumi se-Treasury bond sibuyele kwi-2.85%, emva kokunyuka ukuya kwiminyaka emine ephezulu ye-2.90% ngexesha leseshoni yorhwebo. Kuyo yonke loo nto abathengisi beentsuku ze-FX baya kuba nzima ukutsala inzuzo kwintengiso apho uninzi lwezibini ezithandwayo zorhwebo, ngakumbi ezona zibini zibalulekileyo, zibonise okuncinci kakhulu malunga nexabiso lesenzo. Uninzi lwezibini zithengiswa emacaleni kwiindawo ezixineneyo kuzo zonke iiseshoni zosuku.
Ngomhla ozolileyo weendaba zaseYurophu ii-indices eziphambili nazo zafumana ukonyuka okukhulu, i-UK FTSE 100 yavala usuku ukuya kwi-1.19, i-DAX yavala i-1.45% kunye ne-CAC yenyuka i-1.20%. Nangona kunjalo, ngokungafaniyo noogxa bayo base-USA, ii-indices zaseYurophu zisabhalisa unyaka obalulekileyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, umzekelo; i-FTSE 100 iphantsi -6.64% YTD. Ekuphela kweendaba zekhalenda yezoqoqosho zaseYurophu zayo nayiphi na intsingiselo yokwenyani, echaphazela iSwitzerland CPI yenyanga kaJanuwari, ebetha uqikelelo lokuwa kwe -0.2%, ngokungena ngo -0.1% kunye nokubhalisa ukunyuka kwe-YoY nge-0.7%. Iidiphozithi zebhanki zaseSwitzerland zihlala zizinzile. I-euro ithunyelwe malunga. I-0.3% yeenzuzo ngosuku xa kuthelekiswa: idola yaseMelika, iponti yase-UK kunye nefranc yaseSwitzerland. Ezinye iindaba ezibalaseleyo, ezingadweliswanga kwikhalenda yezoqoqosho, zivela kwinkampani yokulungisa amakhadi iVisa, eyathi inkcitho yokuthengisa yase-UK yehle ngeepesenti ezi-4 ngoJanuwari, ukuwa okukhulu kweJanuwari kungqinwe ukusukela kwiminyaka yokudodobala koqoqosho, malunga neshumi leminyaka umva; ngo-2008-2009.
UKUQALA
I-GBP / i-USD ithengiswe nge-approx engqongqo. Uluhlu lwe-0.2%, kunye nokuthothisa kancinci ukuya kwicala eliphantsi ngexesha leseshoni yosuku. Ukuvala usuku ezantsi nge-0.1%, ngaphantsi kwe-PP yemihla ngemihla ngo-1.383. I-GBP / CHF ilandele iphethini efanayo kunye nokuthengiswa okuthe kratya kuluhlu oluqinileyo ngokuchasene nabo bonke oontanga bayo abaphambili, ukusilela ukubhalisa naziphi na izibonelelo ngosuku.
EURO
I-EUR / GBP ithengiswa kuluhlu oluqinileyo lwe-approx. I-0.3% ngexesha leseshoni yangoMvulo, ukuvala nge-0.3% ngosuku, kwinqanaba elinye lokophula inqanaba lokuqala lokumelana ne-R1, ngaphambi kokuvala ngo-0.888. I-EUR / i-USD yabethelwa kuluhlu oluxineneyo, inyuka nge-R1 kwiseshoni yaseYurophu kusasa, ibuyela umva nge-PP yemihla ngemihla, ukubuyisa inqanaba le-R1, ukuvala nge-0.3% ngosuku ngo-1.229.
Idola yaseMelika
I-USD / JPY ithengiswa kuluhlu olomeleleyo kakhulu lwe-0.1% ngexesha leseshoni yosuku, ukurhweba kufutshane nenqaku lemihla ngemihla, isibini esikhulu semali sigqibe usuku kufutshane neflethi nge-108.6. I-USD / i-CHF ibhuqwe kuluhlu oluxineneyo, ihamba phakathi kweemeko zokuqala, ukubuyisa umva ukuvala usuku malunga ne-0.1%, ngaphezulu kwe-PP yemihla ngemihla kwi-108.6. I-USD / CAD ithengiswa kuluhlu oluqinileyo, inyuka ngaphezulu nje kwe-PP yemihla ngemihla, ngaphambi kokuyeka ukuzuza, ukuvala usuku ezantsi nge-0.1%, ngo-1.258.
GOLD
I-XAU / i-USD iprintwe isezantsi ngomhla we-1,317 kunye ne-1,324 ephezulu, ngaphambi kokuphela nge-circa 1,327. Ukuvala i-circa eyi-0.5% ngosuku, isinyithi esixabisekileyo siguqule uthotho lweelahleko zemihla ngemihla ezibonise ukuba amaxabiso awela kwiveki ephantsi ye-1,314.
IZALATHISO UQINISEKISO LWE-FEBRUWARI 12th.
• I-DJIA ivale i-1.70%.
• I-SPX ivale i-1.39%.
• I-FTSE 100 ivale i-1.19%.
• I-DAX ivale i-1.45%.
• I-CAC ivale i-1.20%.
IZIGANEKO EZIBALULEKILEYO ZEKHALENDA YEZOQOQOSHO KWE-FEBRUWARI 13th.
• IGBP. Isalathiso samaXabiso abaThengi (MoM) (JAN).
• IGBP. Isalathiso sexabiso labathengi (YoY) (JAN).
• IGBP. Isalathiso sexabiso lendlu (YoY) (DEC).
• I-JPY. Imveliso yangaphakathi yagqitywa ngo-sa (QoQ) (4Q P).
IZIPHUMO ZEKHALENDA YEZOQOQOSHO EZIPHAKAMILEYO EMAZISWE NGOLWESIBILI FEBHU.
Amanani akutshanje e-UK CPI, ngenyanga kunye neYoY, aya kujongwa ngeliso elibukhali xa bekhutshwa ngexesha leseshoni yaseLondon-yaseYurophu. Uqikelelo kukuwa kwe -0.6% ngoJanuwari kunye nokwehliswa ukuya kwi-2.9% yoYY, ukusuka kwinani langoku le-3%. Ukuba -0.6% ukuwa kuyatyhilwa emva koko impendulo inokubaluleka kwi-GBP. I-BoE icebise ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo wabo wezemali unokutshintsha kwiinyanga ezizayo; irhuluneli yeBhanki yaseNgilane icebisa ukuba inzala ingaphakama kwaye iphindaphindeke ngakumbi kunangaphambili isikhokelo sangaphambili esichaziweyo ngenxa yoxinzelelo lwexesha elifutshane lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba zombini ukufundwa kwe-CPI kungena njengokubikezela, ke abatyali-mali banokuguqulela iindaba njenge-bearish kwipondo, becinga ukuba i-BoE iphantsi koxinzelelo oluncinci (kwixesha elifutshane ukuya kweliphakathi), ukunyusa amaxabiso.
Emva kwexesha ngokuhlwa omnye umsitho obalulekileyo wempembelelo yosuku ubandakanya inani le-GDP lakutshanje laseJapan. Uqikelelo kukuwa ukusuka kwi-2.5% yeQoQ yonyaka ukuya kwi-1%, ngenani lenyanga elingena kwi-0.6% yokukhula kwe-GDP ye-Q4 ka-2017. Ukuba ezi ngqikelelo zingena njengoko bekuxeliwe, i-yen inokuba phantsi koxinzelelo, njengabahlalutyi kunye nabarhwebi. unokufika kwisigqibo sokuba kusekutsha kakhulu kwinkulumbuso u-Abe okanye kwi-BOJ yebhanki ephambili, ukuphuhlisa utyekelo lwe-hawkish. I-govt kunye ne-BOJ mhlawumbi baya kuqwalasela ukumisa iinjongo zabo zangaphambili zosasazo; ukulungelelanisa nokutshintsha imigaqo-nkqubo yabo yezemali neyemali ngokulandelelana.
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