Njengokuba i-MPC yeBhanki yaseNgilani ihlangana ukuxoxa nokwazisa ngenqanaba lenzala yase-UK, abahlalutyi baqala ukubuza ukuba "luza kubakho nini unyuko olungenakuphepheka?"
NgoLwesine ngoFebruwari 8th, ngo-12: 00pm GMT (ixesha lase-UK) ibhanki ephakathi yase-UK iBhanki yaseNgilani, iya kutyhila isigqibo sabo malunga namazinga enzala. Okwangoku izinga lesiseko likwi-0.5%, kwaye kukho ulindelo oluncinci lokunyuka. I-BoE iphinda ixoxe kwaye ibonise isigqibo sayo malunga neskimu sokuthengwa kwempahla yase-UK yangoku (QE), okwangoku kwi-£ 435b, abahlalutyi abavotelwe yiReuters kunye neBloomberg, balindele ukuba eli nqanaba lihlale lingatshintshi.
Nje ukuba isigqibo senzala sibonakaliswe, ingqwalasela iya kukhawuleza ijike kwingxelo ehamba nesigqibo seBhanki. Abatyalomali kunye nabahlalutyi baya kukhangela phambili izikhokelo ezivela kwirhuluneli ye-BoE, malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo wabo wemali wexesha elizayo. Inqanaba le-inflation yase-UK ngoku i-3%, eyipesenti enye ngaphezu kwendawo ekujoliswe kuyo / emnandi ukuba i-BoE ijolise kuyo njengenxalenye yomgaqo-nkqubo wemali. Kwamanye amaxesha i-BoE inokuthi inyuse amaxabiso ukupholisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kwe-GDP e-UK kwi-1.5%, ngoko ke ukunyuswa kwamazinga kunokonakalisa ukukhula okunjalo okungenanto. Ngaphezu koko, ukunyusa amaxabiso ngoku kunokuchaphazela amaxabiso e-asethi, njengomzekelo, ngexesha lovavanyo lwamva nje loxinzelelo lwebhanki enguvimba olwenziwayo, bagqibe kwelokuba ukunyuka komyinge wesiseko ukuya kwi-3% kunokunciphisa ixabiso lentengiso yepropathi yaseLondon neyoMzantsi Mpuma yeNgilane ukuya kuthi ga ngoku. 30%.
I-MPC/BoE kuya kufuneka kwakhona igxile kumgaqo-mali we-Fed kunye ne-ECB, iibhanki ezingoovimba ababini base-UK abarhwebi abaphambili base-UK-i-USA kunye ne-Eurozone. I-FOMC / Fed iphindwe kabini imilinganiselo kwi-2017 ukuya kwi-1.5%, i-projection yezinye ezintathu ukunyuka kwi-2018, ukuthatha amaxabiso kwi-2.75%. I-ECB inokufuneka iphakamise, ukuze igcine / ilawule ixabiso le-euro, ngokuchasene ne-dollar yase-US. Ngokwendalo ezi zigqibo zinokuhlehliswa, ukuba i-equity market selloff yangoku ibonakalisa ukuba isilungiso se-10% okanye ngaphezulu, ukusuka kwincopho yakutshanje.
I-BoE nayo ibanjwe phakathi kwedwala kunye nendawo enzima, ngenxa yemeko ye-Brexit. UMark Carney, irhuluneli yebhanki ephakathi kunye noogxa bakhe kwi-MPC (ikomiti yomgaqo-mali wemali), bazifumana bekwimeko enzima kakhulu. Akunyanzelekanga ukuba balawule umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ngeli lixa bejongene neengxaki eziqhelekileyo uqoqosho luya kuthi luveze, kufuneka kwakhona bakhumbule ifuthe elithe ngcembe nelipheleleyo eliza kuba nalo iBrexit kuqoqosho lwase-UK, xa iBritane imkile ngoMatshi ka-2019. Ukubizwa ngokuba "lixesha lenguqu" yorhwebo, ukusuka ngoMatshi ka-2019, sele kuphele unyaka kuphela, uxanduva lokulawula ukuphuma ngoku yinxalenye yoxanduva lwe-BOE, hayi urhulumente weTory kuphela.
Abarhwebi akufanele bazilungiselele kuphela isigqibo sezinga lenzala, kodwa kunye nenkomfa yeendaba kunye nayiphi na enye ingxelo ekhutshwe yi-BoE. Ukuba isigqibo sibambe kwi-0.5%, ayiguquleli ukuba i-sterling iya kuhlala ingashukumi xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo. I-Sterling ibe phantsi koxinzelelo ekuqaleni kweveki ngenxa ye-equity market selloff, ngoko ke imali inokuba novakalelo kuyo nayiphi na inkcazo yekhowudi yebhanki, okanye uMark Carney wenza.
IZIBALO EZIFANELEKILEYO ZASE-UK EZINXULUMENE NOKUKHUTSHWA KWEMPEMBELELO EPHAKAMILEYO
Umyinge wenzala 0.5%.
• IGDP YoY 1.5%.
• Ixabiso lentengo (CPI) 3%.
Umyinge ongenamisebenzi 4.3%.
• Ukukhula komvuzo 2.5%.
• Ityala likarhulumente v GDP 89.3%.
• I-PMI edibeneyo ye-54.9.
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