Kuchepa kwa ndalama ku USA, ndalama zachuma khumi zikukwera pafupifupi zaka zinayi, pomwe kazembe wa Bank of England a Mark Carney apulumutsa zabwino ndi umboni wawo wotsimikiza

Jan 31 • Kuthamanga kwa Mmawa Wammawa • 3104 Views • Comments Off pa USA kuwonongeka kwa ndalama, zaka khumi zachuma zimakwera pafupifupi zaka zinayi, pamene bwanamkubwa wa Bank of England Mark Carney akuwombola mwachilungamo

Miyeso yamtengo wapatali ya msika wa US; DJIA, SPX ndi NASDAQ, adagulitsidwa kwambiri pa Lachiwiri, atatha kuzunzidwa koyamba mwezi umodzi Lolemba. The DJIA anataya mfundo zoposa 400 pa siteji imodzi pamene intraday low (pamwamba pamwamba pa 26,000) anafikira. Nkhani zina ziyenera kumangirizidwa ku kugwa kwaposachedwa; kutenga SPX monga chitsanzo komanso ngakhale kutayika kutumizidwa masiku awiri apitawo, zopindulitsa 2018 panopa 5.5%, pamene zopambana NASDAQ ali 7.2% mu January. Ngati tiyang'ana pa zotsatira zomwe DJIA wapanga pa masabata a 52 apita ndi circa 35%.

Ndibwino kuti muzindikire kuti malonda a chimbalangondo angatchulidwe, kuvomerezana kolandiridwa ndikutembenuzidwa kwa 20% kuchokera pamwamba pa chiwerengero cha zizindikiro zambiri, kukonzedwanso kudzakhala ngati 10% ikugwa kuchokera pachimake. Kugwa kwa malonda ofanana a USA (kudutsa gulu lonse) pakalipano kuli kochepa kuposa 2.5%. Ndikofunika kuti malingalirowa agwiritsidwe ntchito pokhudzana ndi kuyendetsa modzichepetsa kumeneku, malo omwe angasinthike panthawi yamaseŵera a mawa, pokhapokha zotsatira za "chigawo choyamba cha adondomeko" cha Trump chikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndipo FOMC ikuwulula chigamulo chawo cha chiwongoladzanja.

Ofufuza ambiri ndi owonetsera malonda akunena za kugulitsidwa kwa msika wogulitsidwa komwe kungawonongeke ngati chizindikiro cha chenjezo poyerekezera ndi msika wogulitsa akugwa; Zaka khumi Chuma chachuma chimakankhira pamwamba pa 2.73% pa Lachiwiri, chiwerengero chapamwamba chowonetsedwa kuyambira April 2014. Ndipo 3% nthawi zambiri imawoneka ngati kusokonekera komwe: ndalama zothandizira ndalama zimakhala zotsika mtengo kwambiri, msika wogulitsa ukhoza kutaya kukopa kwake ndipo kotero kukula kwake kukutha. Tiyenera kuzindikira kuti FOMC iwirikizapo chiwerengero cha chiwerengero cha 1.5% kuchokera ku 0.75% ku 2017, ndipo tiyamba kuzindikira Lachitatu madzulo zomwe maganizo a komiti ya Mgwirizano ali okhudzana ndi ndondomeko ya ndalama pa 2018. Ngati chiwerengero cha chiwongoladzanja chikukwera kwambiri mu 2018, ndiye kuti mwayiwu ndi kuti msika wogulitsa nawo udzapitirirabe.

Kalendala ya zachuma imachokera ku USA yogulitsa wogulitsa, yomwe imamenyana ndi kukwera kwa 125.4 kwa Januwale, mndandanda wa mitengo ya Case Shiller 20 kuwerengera inayamba ku 6.31% YoY. Ndalama ya dola ya ku United States inatseka tsiku lopanda kanthu, pamene USD sanalephereke kupindulitsa kwakukulu motsutsana ndi yen, euro ndi yowoneka bwino. The DJIA yatseka 1.19%, SPX pansi 0.92%. Golide inagwa ndi circa 0.2%, ndi mafuta a WTI akugwa pamwamba pa $ 62 pa barre.

Ziŵerengero zonse za ku France ndi za Eurozone za GDP zinabwera paziwonetsero; EZ inaika kukula YoY ya 2.7% ndi France kufika ku 2.4% YoY. Mu kalendala ina ya zachuma nkhani za ku Switzerland zogulitsa kunja zinadzuka ndi 2.8% mwezi pamwezi. Yosi ya ku CPI YoY kuwerenga inagwera ku 1.6% mu Januwale kuchokera ku 1.7%, pamene kugulitsa kwa Eurozone sikudali kusinthika ndipo kunanenedwa pa 1.3%.

M'mayiko ena a ku Ulaya UK ogulitsa ngongole inagwa, pamene ogulitsa ngongole ananyamuka, monga momwe anagwirira ngongole ku UK okhala, kuti ngati akukwera kapena kubwereka akuyimira chidaliro, kapena kudandaula, ndizobvuta kukhazikitsa. Pound ya UK inayamba kugonjetsedwa panthawi yoyamba ya malonda a ku Ulaya, monga momwe tsikulo linkapangira sterling kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wapatali poyerekeza ndi ambiri a anzawo, kulandira mphamvu kuchokera ku mawonekedwe olimba a bwanamkubwa wa BoE Mark Carney patsogolo pa chuma komiti yosankha. Pomwe adanena kuti Brexit sichidzasokoneza chuma cha UK monga momwe ankaganizira poyamba ndipo kuti ndichondomeko cha ndalama zowonongeka zilipo mosavuta. Mawu ake olimbikitsa anali oyenera kuti lipoti lochotsedwa linapereka kuti UK angatayike mpaka 8% GDP pambuyo pa Brexit, zomwe zinachititsa FTSE 100 kugulitsa ndipo zinayambitsa m'mawa oyambirira sterling.

US DOLLAR.

USD / JPY inagulitsidwa mu zovuta zambiri tsiku lonse, kugwera kupyolera mu S1 ndi kulemba 0.4% kugwa, musanayambe kutsegula pansi pa 0.1% patsiku la 108.7. USD / CHF inatsatira chitsanzo chomwecho kwa yen ya dola, ikugwera mu S1, kuti ikabwezeretse kutha kwa tsiku pansi pa 0.3% pa 0.934. USD / CAD inafotokozedwa mosiyanasiyana, mu gawo la Ulaya ndalama ziwiri zamalonda zinasokonekera R2, musanagwere ku S1, kutseka tsiku pafupi ndi tsiku la pivot pa 1.233, pansi pa 0.1%.

KUCHITA

GBP / USD inagulitsidwa mosiyanasiyana, kupumula kuchokera koyambirira kugwa kudzera mu S1, chingwe chinapezedwa kuti chiwonongeke kupyolera mu PP tsiku ndi tsiku kuti chiwonongeke R1, kutsirizitsa tsiku lozungulira 0.3% pa 1.414. GBP / JPY ndidongosolo lalikulu kwambiri la malonda ndi masewera masana, poyamba kugwa kupyolera mu S2 kupyola mu PP tsiku ndi tsiku, kutseka circa 0.3%, pamwamba pa R1 pa 153.9.

EURO

A EUR / GBP adagwidwa ndi machitidwe osiyanasiyana, poyamba akuphwanya R1 mu gawo la European, ndalama zapakati pazigawo zosiyana siyana zopita ku PP tsiku lililonse kuti ziphwanye S1, kusindikizira tsiku ndi tsiku la 0.875, kutseka pa 0.876 pansi pa 0.2% patsiku . EUR / USD imayambidwanso mwatsatanetsatane, ikugwera ku S1 musanayambe kubwezeretsanso R1, mpaka pafupifupi. 0.4%, ndiye kusiya zina mwaphindu kuthetsa tsiku pafupi ndi 1.240, kufika pa 0.2%.

Golide

XAU / USD osasunthika pamtanda wovuta kwambiri, wotsutsa ku S1, akukwera kupyolera mu PP, ndikuyambiranso kuti ayambe kukana. Kutseka tsiku lomwe liri pafupi ndi 1,334, chitsulo chamtengo wapatali chataya zinthu za Circa 32 kuyambira pakufika kwa 2018 pamwamba ndi pamtunda wa mwezi wa 1,366 sabata yatha.

NKHANI ZOYENERA JANUARY 30th.

• DJIA yatseka 1.37%.
• SPX inatseka 1.09%.
• FTSE 100 inatseka 1.09%.
• DAX inatseka 0.95%.
• CAC inatseka 0.87%.

ZOCHITIKA ZIKHALIDWE ZOKHUDZA KWA JANUARY 31st.

• EUR. German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC).
• EUR. Ntchito Yachijeremani Yopereka Maofesi Sa (JAN).
• EUR. Mpikisano wa Ntchito ya Euro-Zone (DEC).
• EUR. Mndandanda wa malire a mtengo wa Euro-Zone (YoY) (JAN).
• CAD. Zamkatimu Zam'mudzi (YoY) (NOV).
• USD. FOMC Lingaliro la Kusankha (Pamwamba Bound) (JAN 31).

« Msonkhano woyamba wokonzekera kuchuluka kwa FOMC wa 2018 ukhoza kukupatsirani chidziwitso, chokhudza kuwongolera kwa Fed kwa chaka Monga USA misika yogwirizanitsa ikupitirizabe kufika pamwamba ndipo madola a US akugwa, kodi zingatanthauzanji kwa 2018, pa malonda a FX »