SNTHAWI YA SUMBA YA SUMBA 29 / 1-2 / 2 | Deta ya USA imakhala yovuta kwambiri, pamene FOMC ikumana kuti ikwaniritse ndondomeko ya chiwongoladzanja, pamene akatswiri akuyembekeza kusintha kwa nambala ya ntchito ya January NFP
Sabata yodzaza ndi kutulutsa kwamphamvu kwachuma, France ndi Eurozone apereka ziwerengero zawo zaposachedwa za GDP Lachiwiri, chiyembekezo chikuyembekezeka kuti onse asasinthe, pomwe kuwerenga kwakukulu kwa inflation (CPI) kwa Eurozone kumayembekezereka kuti sikungasinthe pa 1.4%. Kuwerenga kwachidaliro kwaposachedwa ku USA kudzaululidwa, sabata yomwe FOMC yalengeza chigamulo chaposachedwa cha chiwongola dzanja, komitiyi ikhala ndi msonkhano wokambirana za tsogolo lazandalama. Manambala aposachedwa a NFP aperekedwa Lachisanu, chifukwa kuchuluka kwa anthu osowa ntchito kumayembekezeka kukhala kosasinthika. Ofufuza adzaganiziranso za GDP yaposachedwa ku Canada, chifukwa cha kukula kwachuma kwa 3.4% mu 2017.
Pali ma rafti a PMI omwe asindikizidwa sabata ikubwerayi, mndandanda woyamba wa chaka nthawi zambiri umakhala chiwonetsero cha chiyembekezo chomwe chikuwonetsedwa ndi oyang'anira kugula. Momwemonso kuwerengetsa kwa ISM, makamaka ku USA, kulinso ndi ziwonetsero zabwino kwambiri zakomwe malingaliro onse komanso kuwerengera zovuta zachuma, zitha kutsogozedwa kwakanthawi kochepa mpaka pakati.
Lolemba imayamba ndikuwerenga kwaposachedwa kochokera ku Germany, ndikutsatira nkhani zaposachedwa sabata iliyonse kuchokera ku banki yayikulu yaku Switzerland, yokhudza kuchuluka kwa ndalama. Ndalama zomwe munthu amapeza komanso zomwe amawononga ku USA ziziwonetsedwa mosamala pazizindikiro zomwe ogwiritsa ntchito aku USA akugwiritsabe ntchito, ndalama zikuyembekezeredwa kuwonetsa kukwera kwa 0.3% ya Disembala, pomwe ndalama zatsikira ku 0.5% mweziwo, munthawi yomweyo. Kuwerenga kopanga kwa USA Dallas kutseka nkhani ku America patsikuli, kuyerekezera kuti igwa mpaka 25.3 ya Januware. Chidwi kenako chimatembenukira ku chuma cha New Zealand; zogulitsa kunja, zogulitsa kunja ndi kugulitsa bwino. Mtengo wosagwira ntchito ku Japan ukuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupi kapena pafupi ndi 2.7%, ndikuwononga ndalama zapanyumba YoY (mpaka Disembala), ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pa 1.7%, malonda ogulitsa akuyenera kukhalabe pa 2.2% pachaka.
Lachiwiri mboni France idasindikiza kuwerenga kwake komaliza kwa Q4 GDP kwa 2017, kuyembekezera kuti kungowerenga 0.5%, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ziwonetsedwe za 2.2% YoY. Kutumiza, kutumizira kunja ndi kuwonera kugulitsa / kutumizira kumawululidwa ku chuma cha Switzerland. Kuchokera ku UK tilandila zatsopano za: ngongole za ogula, kubwereketsa kotetezedwa, kuvomereza ngongole zanyumba ndi ndalama. Kuwerengedwa kambiri kosavuta kwachidziwitso kwa USA kumasindikizidwa, kuphatikiza kuwerengera kudalira kwamaofesi ndi ntchito. GDP YoY yowerengera Eurozone idawululidwa, ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupifupi 2.6%. Kuwerenga kwaposachedwa kwa CPI ku Germany kudzaululidwa, kukuyembekezeredwa kukhala pafupi ndi kuwerenga kwa 1.7% komwe kudalembedwa mu Disembala. Kuwerengedwa kwamitengo yosiyanasiyana ya Case Shiller kudzaperekedwa ku USA, monganso kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa ogula kwaposachedwa kwa Januware, kunanenedweratu kuti kukwera pang'ono pa 123. Zochitika pakalendala yazachuma yamasiku ano Lachiwiri ikutha ndi ziwerengero zopanga mafakitale aku Japan.
Lachitatu m'mawa tilandila zatsopano za CPI yaku Australia, pakadali pano pa 1.8% pali chiyembekezo chochepa chosintha. Ndi China posachedwa yalengeza zakukwera pang'ono kwa GDP mpaka 6.3%, akatswiri adzawunika PMI yaposachedwa ya Januware kuti adziwe ngati pali zovuta zina ndi mamanejala ogula, kuwerenga komaliza kudafika pa 51.6. Kugula kwa ma bond angapo ndi BOJ kudzawunikidwa kuti ziwonetsetse kuti kuchepa kwachuma kutha kuchepa, kuyambika kwa nyumba ndikuitanitsa ma data ochokera ku Japan adzaunikidwanso mosamala. Pomwe chidwi chikuyang'ana ku Europe ziwerengero zaposachedwa za ulova ku Germany zikuyembekezeredwa kuti zisasinthe, kuchokera pano 5.5%, kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito ku Eurozone kuyenera kukhalabe pa 8.7%. CPI yaku euro ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pamlingo wofanana ndi 1.4%.
Zambiri zaku North America zimayamba ndikufunsira ngongole mlungu uliwonse; akuganiza kuti adzagwa chifukwa cha nyengo, ziwerengero zakukula kwa ntchito za ADP zikuyembekezeka kugwera ntchito 183k zopangidwa, motsutsana ndi 250k mu Disembala. Chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha Canada ku GDP chikuyembekezeka kuwulula kuti kukula kwasungidwa ku 3.4% YoY. Kuwerengedwa kosiyanasiyana kwa USA kuphatikiza; zopangira mphamvu zamagetsi ndi kugulitsa nyumba, zikuyambitsa kulengeza kwaposachedwa kwa chiwongola dzanja kuchokera ku FOMC, zikuyembekezeka kukhalabe 1.5%.
On Lachinayi zowerengera zaposachedwa ku Australia ndikuwonetsa index zakunja zidzasindikizidwa, monganso zilolezo zanyumba, mwezi uliwonse mwezi ndi chaka pachaka. China ya Caixan yopanga PMI ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe chimodzimodzi ndi Disembala 51.5. Pamene misika yaku Europe ikutsegula ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri zaku Switzerland zidzaululidwa, zikuyembekezeka kusintha pa -0.2% chiwonetsero cha YoY chofalitsidwa mu Disembala. PMI wopanga zida zaku Switzerland akuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupifupi 65.2. Pali timagulu tomwe timapanga ma PMI a February omwe amafalitsidwa m'maiko angapo akutsogola ku Europe; Italy, Germany, France, UK ndi dera lonse la Eurozone. Kuwerenga kwa Germany kukuyembekezeka kubwera pa 63.3 ya February, kuyang'aniridwa nthawi zonse, kupatsidwa udindo waku Germany ngati injini yokula m'derali. PMI yopanga ku Canada idzatulutsidwa.
Pomwe chidwi chikuyang'ana ku USA chidziwitso chatsiku ndi sabata chopanda ntchito chidzaululidwa, kuwerengera kwa Markit PMI ndi ISM pakupanga kudzafalitsidwa; kuwerenga kwa ISM kukuyembekezeka kugwera 58.9. Ndalama zomanga ku USA zikuyembekezeka kuti zagwera ku 0.4% mu Disembala.
FridayChochitika chachikulu pakalendala yazachuma chimakhudzana ndi lipoti laposachedwa la manambala a NFP pantchito, kusindikiza kwa NFP kwa Disembala kukhumudwitsa misika yomwe ikubwera ku 148k, kuneneraku ndikusintha mpaka 165k. Kusowa kwa ntchito ku USA kukuyembekezeka kuti sikungasinthe pa 4.1%, pomwe kuyerekezera kwapakati pa ola kudzafika pakukula kwa 0.2%, zomwe zingakhudze kukula kwapano kwa 2.5%. Malamulo a mafakitale akuyembekezeredwa kugwera ku 0.6% mu Disembala, kuchokera ku 1.6% yolembedwa mu Novembala. Malipiro azinthu zokhazikika komanso malipoti a University of Michigan apamwezi, komanso kuchuluka kwaposachedwa kwa Baker Hughes, kumathetsa kuchuluka kwachuma kwa sabata.
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