Ngati Mtengo Ugwa M'nkhalango Ndipo Palibenso Wina Komwe Mumamve, Kodi Umamveka?

Okutobala 14 • Ndemanga za Msika • 12269 Views • 1 Comment Ngati Mtengo Ugwa M'nkhalango Ndipo Palibenso Wina Komwe Mumamve, Kodi Zikumveka?

"Mtengo ukagwa m'nkhalango ndipo palibe amene ali pafupi kuti awumve, kodi umamveka?" ndi nthano yongopeka yanzeru yomwe imadzutsa mafunso okhudzana ndikuwona komanso kudziwa zenizeni. Kodi china chake chingakhalepo osazindikira? Kodi kumveka kumangokhala phokoso ngati wina akumva? Nkhani yodziwika kwambiri yomwe mwambiwu umayambitsa imakhudza kukhalapo kwa mtengo (ndi phokoso lomwe umatulutsa) kunja kwa malingaliro amunthu. Ngati palibe amene ali pafupi ndi; mwawona, kumva, kukhudza kapena kununkhiza mtengowo, zikanatheka bwanji kunenedwa kuti ulipo? Kodi tinganene chiyani kuti zilipo pomwe kukhalako kotereku sikudziwika?

Kuyesera kumakambidwa motere; Kodi mtengo ukagwera pachilumba pomwe panalibe munthu, pangakhale phokoso lililonse? Yankho lake n’lakuti ayi chifukwa chakuti phokoso ndi mmene munthu amamvera m’khutu pamene mpweya, kapena sing’anga ina ikayamba kuyenda. Izi zimabweretsa funso osati kuchokera kumalingaliro afilosofi, koma kuchokera ku sayansi. Phokoso ndi kunjenjemera, komwe kumatumizidwa kumalingaliro athu kudzera m'machitidwe a khutu, ndipo amadziwika kuti amamveka pamitsempha yathu yokha. Kugwa kwa mtengo kapena kusokonezeka kwina kulikonse kumapangitsa kugwedezeka kwa mpweya. Ngati palibe makutu akumva, sipadzakhala mawu. M'nkhalango yodzaza ndi zambiri zamisika zomwe timakumana nazo tsiku ndi tsiku, kodi pangakhale phokoso la mitengo yakugwa yomwe sitikumva? Zomwe zawonongeka pamsika wa 2008-2009 zidachitika m'miyezi ingapo yapitayi; PIIGS, mavuto azandalama aku Eurozone komanso mwayi wopatsirana, kutsika kwa chiwongola dzanja cha USA, kulephera kosalekeza kubanki ku USA, (khumi ndi zisanu kuyambira Ogasiti 2011), wogulitsa mwachinyengo wa Soc Gen, kuchuluka kwa ngongole zamabanki aku France, kusowa ntchito kumakhala kouma khosi , MPC yaku UK BoE yomwe ikuchita nawo gawo lina la QE..Mndandandawo sutha pokhudzana ndi mavuto azachuma omwe alipo ngakhale zili choncho chifukwa cha kunyalanyaza misika, makamaka misika yamalonda, yasokoneza nkhaniyi ndikukhalabe pamilingo yomwe ( pomwe akugonjetsedwa) palibe paliponse pafupi ndi Marichi 9th 2009 pomwe Dow Jones mafakitale (INDU) adatseka ku 6547.05, malo ake otsika kwambiri kuyambira Epulo 25, 1997. Zogulitsa zamtengo wapatali za V zooneka ngati 'kubwezeretsa' pambuyo pake zinali zodabwitsa. Pogwiritsa ntchito galasi lathu lakumbuyo, zinali zodziwikiratu kuti mantha anali atachuluka ndipo misika yambiri yapadziko lonse yagulitsidwa, msonkhano womwe unachitika pambuyo pake unali wochititsa chidwi. Mosakayikira zirp, bailouts, anathandizira bankirapuse ku USA, (otchedwa pre-packaged kupulumutsa ku UK) ndi kuzungulira kwa QE "kupulumutsa dongosolo" anathandiza Dow Jones kuchira ku 11,000 koyambirira kwa 2010. Kuwonongeka kwapadziko lonse kwa 2008-2009 kudachitika ndi a Lehman Bros. kugwa, revisionist ndi kusankha kukumbukira zimasonyeza kuti Lehman anali chifukwa. Komabe, izi zimanyalanyaza kugwedezeka komwe msika udakumana nako chaka chatha ndi Bear Stearns. Ndinakumana ndi chochitika chachilendo pamene Bear Stearns inayamba kuchepa. Ndinali patchuthi ndi banja langa ku Kefalonia Greece pa nthawi ya matenda a mtima, ngati kuti akale Greek milungu anali 'kuguguda' dongosolo, dongosolo ATM pachilumba anatsika. Chifukwa chimene chinaperekedwa madzulo chinali chakuti pafupi ndi chilumbachi, kapena kumtunda, panachitika chivomezi chaching'ono. Pambuyo pake usiku womwewo, ndikuwerenga za Bear Stearns pa intaneti cafe ndidadabwa, mosintha mwangozi, ngati tikadafika pamtundu wina wa 'inflection point'. Kodi 'ife' tinali ndi ndalama zochepa?

Pa Juni 22, 2007, Bear Stearns adalonjeza ngongole yofika $ 3.2 biliyoni kuti "atulutse" imodzi mwa ndalama zake, Bear Stearns High-grade Structured Credit Fund, pomwe akukambirana ndi mabanki ena kuti abwereke ndalama pobweza ngongole ina , Bear Stearns High-grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund. Chochitikacho chidadzetsa nkhawa zakupatsirana pomwe Bear Stearns atha kukakamizidwa kuthetsa ma CDO ake, ndikupangitsa kuti chuma chofananacho chigawidwe m'mabwalo ena. Mu sabata la Julayi 16, 2007, Bear Stearns adawulula kuti ndalama ziwiri zapansi pantchito zatayika pafupifupi mtengo wake wonse pakuchepa kwamsika kwa ngongole zanyumba ya subprime. Panthawiyo Bear Stearns inali banki yogulitsa ndalama padziko lonse lapansi komanso malonda achitetezo ndi mabizinesi, mpaka idagulitsidwa ku JPMorgan Chase mu 2008 panthawi yamavuto azachuma komanso kugwa kwachuma. Bear Stearns adagwira nawo ntchito yosungiramo chitetezo ndipo adapereka ndalama zambiri zothandizidwa ndi chuma, zomwe pa nkhani ya ngongole zanyumba zidachitidwa ndi Lewis Ranieri, "bambo wa chikole cha ngongole". Pamene kutayika kwa amalonda kunakwera m'misikayi mu 2006 ndi 2007, kampaniyo inawonjezera kuwonetseratu, makamaka katundu wobwereketsa ngongole zomwe zinali pakati pa subprime mortgage crisis. Mu March 2008, Federal Reserve Bank ku New York inapereka ngongole yadzidzidzi kuyesa kulepheretsa kugwa kwadzidzidzi kwa kampaniyo. Kampaniyo sikanatha kupulumutsidwa ndipo idagulitsidwa kwa JP Morgan Chase kwa $ 10 pagawo, mtengo womwe uli pansi pavuto la masabata 52 asanafike $ 133.20 pagawo, koma osati otsika ngati $ 2 pagawo lomwe adagwirizana poyamba ndi Bear Stearns. ndi JP Morgan Chase. Kugwa kwa kampaniyo kunali chiyambi cha kusokonezeka kwa kayendetsedwe ka ziwopsezo kwa banki yogulitsa ndalama ku Wall Street mu Seputembala 2008, komanso mavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi komanso kugwa kwachuma. Mu Januware 2010, JPMorgan adasiya kugwiritsa ntchito dzina la Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns inali kampani yachisanu ndi chiwiri pazachuma zazikuluzikulu pazachuma chonse. Pofika pa Novembara 30, 2007, a Bear Stearns anali ndi ndalama zokwana pafupifupi $13.40 thililiyoni pazida zazachuma, zomwe $1.85 thililiyoni zidalembedwa zam'tsogolo ndi makontrakitala angasankhe. Kuphatikiza apo, Bear Stearns inali ndi ndalama zoposa $28 biliyoni mu chuma cha 'level 3' m'mabuku ake kumapeto kwa chuma cha 2007 motsutsana ndi ndalama zokwana $ 11.1 biliyoni zokha. $ 11.1 biliyoni iyi idathandizira $ 395 biliyoni muzachuma, kutanthauza kuti chiŵerengero chapakati cha 35.5 mpaka 1. Tsambali, lokhala ndi zinthu zambiri zopanda pake komanso zopanda pake, zidapangitsa kuti chidaliro chaogulitsa ndi obwereketsa chichepe mwachangu, chomwe chidasokonekera pomwe adakakamizika kuyimbira Federal Reserve ku New York kuti aletse chiwonongeko chomwe chikubwera. chiwopsezo chomwe chingachitike chifukwa chokakamizidwa kuthetsedwa. Mfundo yakuti Bear Stearns idayambitsa vuto lalikulu la mtima ku dongosolo la 2007, zomwe zikanapangitsa kuti mafunso afunsidwe okhudzana ndi solvency ndi njira zopezera ndalama zamabanki onse, koma mafunsowa okhudza kutha kwa ntchito zonse ndi makina ogwirira ntchito padziko lonse lapansi. dongosolo lazachuma silinawonekere mpaka 2008, liyenera kukhala chenjezo lochenjeza ndikuwonetsa zomwe zikuseweredwa pano. Mtima wamsika waposachedwa kwambiri womwe unachitika mu Ogasiti-Seputembala ukhoza kukhala chiyambi chazovuta kwambiri kuposa zovuta zomwe zidachitika mu 2008-2009. Komabe mofananamo ichi chikhoza kukhala chiyambi cha kuwulula kwa zochitika zomwe zingatenge nthawi kuti kukhetsa magazi kwathunthu kudzera mu dongosolo. Koma poyerekezera mwachindunji tili pa Bear Stearns siteji tsopano osati Lehman bros. Ndiye 'Bear Stearns' wathu ali kuti? Sizinali zophweka ndipo monga zatsimikiziridwa kuti anali ngati canary mu mgodi wa malasha yomwe inatsekedwa nyimbo yolira isanamveke kwambiri. Komabe, ngati tiwona momwe mabanki athu amagwirira ntchito ngati chiwalo chazachuma padziko lonse lapansi; chiwalo chomwe chili ndi ntchito zambiri zofunika komanso zovuta: kupanga, kuphatikizira, kupanga ndi kutulutsa ndulu, kutulutsa zinthu zomwe zitha kukhala zovulaza ndikuyeretsa dongosolo, ndiye kuti pali zidziwitso zambiri zochokera kubanki zomwe zikuwonetsa mitengo ingapo mu nkhalango yatsala pang'ono kugwa. Kupatula mafunso okhudzana ndi kutha kwa mabanki aku France omwe tangokumana nawo posachedwa a Dexia omwe, ngati chiwonetsero chamasewera azaka za Victorian, adapakidwanso mwachangu, kutsekedwa ndikusamukira ku tawuni ina pamaso pa ana a parishiyo amachita mantha kwambiri. Koma kuganiza kuti Dexia ndi vuto lapadera ndikutambasula kukhulupilika kwa banki ndi kudalirika kwa matupi omwe adapeza kuti adayimilira ku mayesero aposachedwa, mpaka malire. Osatengera Dexia misika yamanjenje posachedwapa yaletsa kugulitsa kwakanthawi kochepa pazachuma, mafuta ena 'obwerera ku mtsogolo' omwe sanagwire ntchito mu 2008-2009. Lero tikuphunzira UniCredit, banki yaku Italy, idayimitsidwa magawo ake atangogwa 7.5%. Sikuti kugwa komwe kumakhudzidwa ndi misika, kapena kufalikira kapena kufalikira, monga mosiyana ndi Bear Stearns iyi si njira yakubanki yomwe ikufunsidwa, iyi ndivuto langongole lomwe likuyambitsa kukayikira kutha kwa mayiko, osati. Mabanki payekha ndipo izi ndizosiyana kwambiri ndi 2008-2009. Komabe, ngati Bear Stearns anali chizindikiro cha Lehman, kodi Greece ingakhale yolengeza za kusakhulupirika kwakukulu?

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