Kodi kufupikitsidwa, kwakuthwa, kuwongolera m'misika yamasheya, kupatsidwa mabanki apakati ngati chowiringula kuti asakweze chiwongola dzanja?
"Taper tantrum" ndi mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kutanthauza kuwonjezeka kwa chuma cha US Treasury mu 2013, chomwe chinabwera chifukwa chogwiritsa ntchito tapering ku Federal Reserve kuti ichepetse pang'onopang'ono kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimabweretsa pachuma.
Amalonda ndi ogulitsa ndalama angakumbukire mawu oti "taper tantrum". Ndalama zimangoganizira zochepetsera ndalama zokwana $ 85 biliyoni zogula mwezi uliwonse, ngakhale ndi ndalama zochepa zophiphiritsira monga $ 5 biliyoni. Wapampando wa Fed panthawiyo, a Ben Bernanke, adapita kumawailesi ndi ma studio kuti afotokozere kuti kuwongolera kulikonse kungakhale kocheperako poyamba komanso kuti sanalingalire kuti ZIRP (zero chiwongola dzanja) isinthidwa, mpaka oyambirira 2015.
Zachidziwikire, kuyimba kwa QE komwe kunachitikadi, sikunali kovuta monga momwe amalonda amaopera, misika idapumira limodzi ndikupumulanso, mpaka pomwe QE idachotsedwa pofika Okutobala 2014, misika idayamba chibwano ndikupitiriza kukwera. Ndipo ngakhale panali kukonza kwakanthawi mu 2015, komwe kudabwera chifukwa cha nkhawa zachuma cha China, misika yayikulu yaku USA idalimbikitsana kuti ipange zolemba zapamwamba, mpaka Januware 2018.
Msika wamalonda waposachedwa wogulitsidwa ndikukumbutsa zomwe zimachitika pazochitika zoyipa zomwe zimachitika nthawi yayitali. Katundu wazachuma wazaka khumi waku US adakulitsa zomwe zidagulitsidwa posachedwa kuti afike pamlingo woopedwa kwambiri wa 3%, chifukwa cha mantha kuti ndalama zotsika mtengo ziyamba kutha ndikukwera kwachuma. Tanthauzo lake ndikuti FOMC / Fed idzafunika kukweza chiwongola dzanja chofunikira kuthana ndi kuchuluka kwa inflation (makamaka inflation), yomwe idakwera kupitirira 4.4% YoY.
Kukweza chiwongola dzanja chachikulu mwachangu komanso kukulitsa, kungakhudze kuthekera kwamakampani kubwereka, kubzala ndalama ndi kubwereka, komanso kuchita nawo magawo obwereketsa. Otsatsa ndalama amathanso kuchoka pamalipiro, kukhala chuma cholipira zokolola zochulukirapo, chifukwa chake mabizinesi amafika pamtengo. Akuluakulu osiyanasiyana a Fed adayamba kunena kuti kukwera kwamitengo sikungakhale koopsa (kubwereketsa mtengo wotsika mtengo kumakhalabe kotsika mtengo kwakanthawi) ndipo msikawo udagwedezeka ndikubweza zomwe zawonongeka posachedwa.
Zili ngati kuti misika yonse idakangamira pa Feti kuti ichenjeze kuti malingaliro okhawo akukwera, kunja kwa zomwe FOMC idanena kale mu Disembala zingayambitse misika. Ngakhale kuti ubale wapakati paumoyo wachuma chonse komanso thanzi lamisika yamasheya ndiwosatetezedwa komanso wofooka, mabanki apakati ndi maboma awo akuwoneka kuti akhudzidwa ndi kukonza, kapena msika wa chimbalangondo ukukwaniritsidwa. Kuwongolera kwa 25% m'misika yaku USA kungangochotsa zopindulitsa za 2017 mu DJIA ndi SPX, kugunda kwakukulu, koma kosasinthika ndi mbiri yakale.
FOMC / Fed idanenanso kuti mitengo itatu ikwere mu 2018, atha kuwonongedwa ndi kugulitsa ndikubwezeretsa kukwera koyamba (kolemba mu Marichi koyambirira) mpaka Meyi, kapena mtsogolo. Izi zitha kubwezera m'mbuyo pulani yoyambira yokhazikika. Cholinga choyamba chinali kuchuluka kwa 2.75% pofika kumapeto kwa 2018, lingaliro lomwe lidasinthidwa lomwe lakhala likugunda opulumutsa ndi opuma pantchito ku USA kwanthawi yayitali.
Opulumutsa awona mitengo ikukwera mpaka 1.5% mu 2017, komabe, zopindulitsa zilizonse zakhala zikuwerengedwa chifukwa cha kutayika kwa dola komanso kukwera kwamitengo kukuwononga ndalama. Ndalama ya dollar idatsika ndi kuchuluka kwake kwakukulu zaka zambiri mchaka cha 2017, chifukwa chake mphamvu zogula za anthu aku America zidachepetsedwa. Panthawi ina, Ndalama ziyenera kukonza mtengo wa dola ndi mitengo ya osunga ndalama, ndipo izi zitha kuchitika kudzera pamitengo yachiwongola dzanja ndikupereka misika ndi osunga ndalama kuti athe kuwongolera zomwe zikuchitika. Sitiyenera kukhala udindo wa Fed kusunga mitengo yamsika wamsika pamlingo wambiri.
Ngakhale kugulitsidwa, UK Bank of England inali (malinga ndi atolankhani azachuma) "hawkish" m'mbiri yawo, atalengeza chisankho chawo sabata yatha kuti chiwongola dzanja cha UK sichisinthe pa 0.5%. Komabe, hawkish iyenera kuti inali kukokomeza. Bwanamkubwa adati kukwera kwamitengo kukhoza kukulirakulira komanso pafupipafupi, koma poyang'anitsitsa, mawu olimba mtima otere akukwera mpaka 1.25% pofika 2020.
Asanachitike mavuto amabanki azachuma ndi azachuma ku 2008, kuchuluka kwakanthawi ku UK kunali pafupifupi 5%, kumayesedwa pazaka 30. Chifukwa chake kukwera mpaka 1.25% ndi 75% yochepa yokhazikika. Apanso zikuwonekabe ngati kuwongolera kwaposachedwa ku UK FTSE 100 kungakhudze zisankho za BoE.
Mabanki apakati atha kukumana ndi chisankho chovuta, amalola kuti misika yamasheya igwe, mokomera chiwongola dzanja ndi msika wama bond? Pamavuto apanyanja aponya ndani jekete lamoyo; misika yamalonda, kapena chuma chambiri? Kusankha kolimba, koma ndalama za okhoma misonkho zimawalipira kuti apange zisankho ndi ambiri omwe amapereka misonkho omwe akuyenera kukhala oyamba.
« Misika yaku US ikukwera patatha masiku awiri zitayika, cholozera cha madola aku US chatsika, ndipo ma yen akukwera poyerekeza ndi anzawo CHITSANTHU CHOLEMBEDWA MWA sabata. 26/2 - 2/3 | Sabata limodzi la ziwerengero za GDP ku Canada, USA, France ndi Italy, zitha kuwonetsa kulimba kwakukula kwakumadzulo, pomwe ma CPI osiyanasiyana awulula kuchuluka kwa kukwera kwamitengo »
