Shin ƙarshen Jumma'a zai dawo cikin kasuwannin daidaito zai ci gaba a farkon wannan makon kuma menene tasirin selloff a kan USD?
Makon da ya kasance mafi munin cikin kusan shekaru biyu don kasuwannin daidaitattun Amurka sun rufe a ranar Juma'ar da ta gabata yayin da ƙididdigar ta ƙare a cikin yanki mai kyau; DJIA ya karu da 1.39%, SPX ya karu da 1.49% sannan NASDAQ ya tashi da 1.44%. Indididdigar yanzu sun ƙaura daga yankin gyara (wanda ake kira ƙasa da 10% daga recentarshen kwanan nan), amma har yanzu suna rijistar shekara zuwa yau ta faɗi, DJIA ya sauka -2.14% da SPX ƙasa -2.04%. Halin da ake ciki tsakanin masu saka hannun jari ya bayyana da firgici, wanda hakan ba abin mamaki bane ganin cewa babban adadin ya tashi daga kusan 12,000 a shekarar 2012, zuwa kusan kwanan nan. 26,600, samun fa'ida 121% cikin kusan. 5 shekaru. Irin wannan haɓaka ya sa yawancin masu saka jari a kasuwannin Amurka zama masu laulayi da kallon kasuwannin daidaiton a matsayin hanyar cin nasara, don haka ba su da ƙwarewa kwata-kwata kuma ba sa shirin gyara, ko kasuwannin ɗaukar kaya.
A cikin yanayi mai ƙarancin riba, wanda ya dawo kan tanadi ya kasance babu shi, ga mutane masu zaman kansu da yawa kasuwanni sun ba da hutu da mafaka don sanya ajiyar su. Nan da nan suka fuskanci zabi; Shin suna samun kuɗi kuma suna komawa cikin wasu kadarorin, ko kuma suna sa hannun jari? Idan suka cire kudadensu daga kasuwa wadanne kadarori suke saka jari; karafa masu tamani, ago, shaidu? Ko yanzu suna buƙatar koyon ƙwarewar ƙirar yadda ake gajarta alamomi? Skillwarewar da yawancin yan kasuwa ke ƙoƙari su cika.
Yin aiki a cikin hanyar watsa labaran kuɗi na ƙarshen mako, kamar yadda kasuwanni suka rufe bayan irin wannan rikice-rikicen mako, babban ra'ayi yana nuna cewa kasuwannin na iya kasancewa don ƙarin lokutan gwaji. Kamar dai ba zato ba tsammani aka kunna kwan fitila kamar yadda masana tattalin arziki, masu saka jari da kuma manazarta, a wani mataki na matsar da kasuwanninmu, kwatsam suka fahimci cewa; ninka kudin ruwa na Amurka daga 0.75% zuwa 1.5% a cikin 2017 kuma FOMC tana barazanar tashi sau uku a 2018 yayin ganawarsu ta Disamba 2017, na iya yin mummunan tasiri ga ƙimar daidaito, duk da rage harajin Trump.
Ya ɗauki lokaci kafin a manta da irin wannan matsalar ta kasuwa, masu saka hannun jari, masu yin kasuwa da masu motsi kasuwa za su kusanci kasuwannin ta hanyar da ta fi sauƙi a cikin makonni masu zuwa kuma a cikin wannan ma'anar watakila gyara ya kamata a duba da kyau; an ƙirƙiri kiran farkawa Fatan kasuwanni don sadar da dawowa har abada wauta ce, a wani mataki dokokin tattalin arziki, lissafi da ƙila ilimin lissafi sun karɓi. Zamanin bayar da bashi / bashi mai arha ya wuce, akwai iyakance ga ci gaban tattalin arziki a cikin kowane zagaye da aka bayar, kuma juyawa baya zai sa kasuwanni su ja da baya koyaushe a wani mataki, saboda dalilai daban-daban.
Zamu kara sani, dangane da irin lalacewar masu saka hannun jari a kasuwannin Amurka sun sha wahala a hankulansu, da zarar an bude kasuwanni a New York a yammacin Litinin. Da wuya mu iya auna yanayin ta kasuwar nan gaba da yammacin ranar Lahadi da sanyin safiyar Litinin a cikin irin wannan yanayi mai kyau. A ranar Laraba sabbin alkaluman CPI na Amurka za su kasance a cikin kallon fitowar hauhawar farashi a cikin shekaru da yawa, bisa da'awar da cewa tsoron hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda karin albashi ya haifar, ya haifar da dalar. Lamunin baitulmalin shekara goma ya kai kashi 2.88% a ranar Juma'a, wanda yakai shekaru huɗu.
Hanya guda daya ce da aka gwada kuma aka gwada don dakile hauhawar farashin kayayyaki- kara farashin amfani har sai kudin cikin gida sun tashi. Currencyarfin kuɗi mafi ƙarfi yana sa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya faɗi. Koyaya, gwamnatin Amurka da FOMC / Fed suna da aikin daidaita daidaitaccen wahalar gudanarwa; suna so su bunkasa karuwar masana'antu da fitarwa kuma karamin dala ya cimma wannan manufar, bisa ka'ida. Amma farashin shigo da kayayyaki yana ta tashi kuma Amurka tana bunkasa sakamakon 80% na masarufin da take dogaro da dogaro da tattalin arzikinta, kuma wadanda suke tashin farashin kayan masarufin da aka shigo dasu suma zasu afkawa masana'antun. Shin dalar Amurka tayi faɗi sosai a cikin 2017, Shin FOMC na buƙatar haɓaka da ƙarfi kuma me yasa firgitar kasuwar kwanan nan, da aka bayar cewa a 2.1% CPI da wuya yayi yawa?
Hasashen na sanarwa ne a ranar Laraba cewa CPI ya koma zuwa 1.9% YoY, idan wannan hasashen ya tabbatar da daidai to jin daɗin sauƙi na iya haifar da daidaito ya fara tashi, wataƙila sake dawo da ƙasarsu da suka ɓace. Idan dabi'un adalci ba su murmure ba bisa ragin adadi na CPI, to manazarta na iya fara yin tambaya cewa akwai wasu dalilai da yawa waɗanda suka ɗora dalilin jawo koma baya, ka'idar da ta sami amincewa sosai yayin zaman makon da ya gabata.
Litinin wata rana ce mai nutsuwa don labaran kalandar tattalin arziki, an yi hasashen hauhawar farashin CPI ta Switzerland a -0.2% na Janairu da 0.8% YoY. Bayanin kasafin kudin kowane wata daga Amurka shine fitowar kalandar mai muhimmanci ta gaba a ranar; tsammani na faduwar faduwar watan Janairu zuwa $ 51.0b daga $ 51.3b.
« A wane lokaci ne Amurka Fed da gwamnatin Amurka zasu iya ɗaukar dalar Amurka tayi ƙasa kaɗan? Kamar yadda sabon CPI (hauhawar farashi) ya fito, Shin Bankin Ingila zai tabbatar da daidai wajen kiyaye ƙimar riba a 0.5%? »
