Sabbin alkaluman ci gaban GDP na Amurka na iya kwantar da hankulan masu saka jari, amma su gabatar da tambayoyi game da manufofin kudin Fed
A ranar Laraba 28 ga Fabrairu da 13:00 na yamma agogon GMT (lokacin Ingila), za a buga sabbin alkaluman GDP da suka shafi tattalin arzikin Amurka. Akwai awo biyu da aka saki; shekara ta shekara akan adadin girma shekara da adadi har zuwa Q4. Hasashen ya nuna cewa adadin YoY zai fadi zuwa kashi 2.5% daga kashi 2.6% da aka yiwa rijista a watan Janairu, yayin da aka yi hasashen cewa adadin Q4 zai ci gaba da zama a matakin Q3 na 2.4%.
Adadin GDP na kwanan nan zai kasance mai lura da hankali saboda dalilai da yawa: ayyukan da Fed / FOMC ke yi dangane da manufofin kuɗi, da yiwuwar ayyukan baitul malin da kuma gwamnatin Amurka dangane da manufofin kasafin kuɗi, abin da ke nuna ci gaban adadi kan hauhawar farashi. da kuma abin da adadi na ci gaba yake wakilta, dangane da gyaran kasuwar hannun jari ta Amurka kwanan nan, da aka fuskanta a ƙarshen Janairu farkon Fabrairu.
Tattalin bayanan tattalin arziki, wanda wasu hukumomin kididdiga na Amurka suka bayar (galibi BLS), ba lallai bane ya zama mai karfin gaske kamar wanda ba a kalubalance shi ba, babban labarin yada labarai zai sa masu saka jari suyi imani. Haɓaka tattalin arziƙin Amurka da aka gani a cikin 2017 an tallafawa bashi, bashin mabukaci / kasuwanci da bashin gwamnati, wanda yanzu yake a 105.40% lokacin da gwamnatocin baya suka ɗauki adadi sama da 90% game da abin. Yayinda har yanzu Fed ke zaune akan dala tiriliyan $ 4.2 ba tare da wani shiri ba na tsaurara matakan yawa, yayin da suma suke kokarin daidaita fa'idodi na ƙarancin dala, game da duk wata ɓarnar da zata iya haifarwa. Hakki ya fara aiki a zahiri (daidaita hauhawar farashi) kuma har yanzu suna nan a kan matakan 1990 na Amurkawa, da yawa daga cikinsu sun haɓaka gibin shigarsu tare da bashi.
Gabaɗaya, akwai damuwa da ke haɓaka a cikin tattalin arzikin Amurka, matsalolin da za a iya haɓaka idan GDP ya tashi da sauri kuma membobin kwamitin FOMC sun yanke shawara cewa tattalin arziƙin ya isa sosai don karɓar sama da ƙimar riba uku da aka riga aka tsara don 2018. Saboda haka, ya kamata adadi na GDP ya doke hasashe lokacin da aka fitar da alkaluman a ranar Laraba, masu saka jari na iya ɗaukar shi a matsayin shaida cewa FOMC yana da isasshen ɗaki don ƙara ƙimantawa gaba, ba tare da haifar da wata illa ga ci gaban ba. Wannan na iya haifar da yan kasuwar FX su sanya farashin dalar Amurka.
Ididdigar GDP ta Amurka wasu fitattun kalandar tattalin arziƙi ne waɗanda 'yan kasuwar FX suka karɓa, damar motsi nau'i-nau'i na USD yana da matuƙar girma, saboda haka yan kasuwa yakamata suyi la'akari da kula da duk wani matsayin dala da suke dasu a kasuwa, yayin da aka fitar da bayanan. .
MAGANIN MAGANAR TATTALIN ARZIKI DANGANE DA SAURON KALALE.
• GDP na YoY 2.5%.
• GDP QoQ 2.4%.
• Hauhawar farashi 2.1%.
• Girman albashi 4.47%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 1.5%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.1%.
• Bashin Gwamnati v GDP 105.4%.
« Hankalin masu saka jari zai koma kan sabon hauhawar farashin Euro, saboda damuwar ECB game da darajar Euro Kasuwancin Amurka sun ci gaba da dawowa daga baya, USD ya tashi, yayin da masu saka hannun jari ke jiran fitowar Fed Powell na farko a gaban kwamitin majalisar »
