Black Swan, Rashin aikin yi da ba a sani ba
Taron shekara-shekara na jam'iyyar Conservative ta Burtaniya ya kawo karshe a ranar Laraba. Jita-jita tana ta yawo cewa gwamnatin hadaka ta Burtaniya na gab da fadawa cikin matsin lamba mai karfi da kuma rage kashi hamsin na haraji saboda, a ra'ayin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da yawa, hakika ba ta samar da karin kudaden shiga ba. Zaton shine babban adadin haraji shima yana shafar yan kasuwa daga kafa sabbin abubuwan kasuwanci. Duk waɗannan imanin da wuya su tsaya don bincika. Tunanin cewa za a dakatar da dan kasuwa kafa sabon kamfani saboda damuwa kan karin harajin ba shirme bane. Hakanan kuɗin haraji na kashi hamsin, ana zartar da shi ga waɗanda ke samun sama da £ 150k a kowace shekara, na iya samar da kusan biliyan billion 7 a shekara a cewar ƙawancen masu biyan haraji na Burtaniya. Ba karamin kuɗi bane lokacin da Firayim Minista ke yi wa Ingila lacca don datse shagunan ta da katunan kuɗi da zama ta hanyar da ba ta dace ba.
Jam'iyyar demokradiyya ta Amurka tana turawa gaba tare da harajin 'miliyan,' kuma ba kamar gwamnatin hadaka ta Burtaniya ba. sun yi 'jimlar su' yadda ya kamata. Tare da fitattun mutane kamar su Warren Buffett suna ƙoƙarin samun tallafi tsakanin manyan abokan hulɗarsa don ƙarin haraji akan mawadata wannan abin da zai iya haifar da da mai ido. A cewar lissafin karin harajin kashi biyar a kan wadanda ke samun dala miliyan daya a shekara zai samar da karin dala biliyan 1 a shekara. Babban adadi wanda zai iya tallafawa wasu mahimman ayyukan jama'a a cikin Amurka. Tsarin ayyukan Shugaba Obama da aka bayyana a farkon watan Satumba zai lakume dala biliyan 450, attajirai masu fada a ji saboda haka za su iya alfahari da cewa karin gudummawar da suke bayarwa na haraji ya bunkasa damar aiki a cikin tsarin wanda ya basu damar cin gajiyar irin wannan. Shugabannin Majalisar Dattawa na Democrat sun sanar da wannan shawarar a yau yayin da ‘yan majalisar ke matsa lamba kan yadda za a bunkasa tattalin arzikin. Shugaban masu rinjaye Harry Reid, dan jam'iyyar Democrat daga Nevada, ya ce a yau harajin kashi 477 cikin dari hakika zai samar da dala biliyan 5. 'Yan Democrat sun jajirce ga' yan Republican, wadanda ke kin karin haraji, don toshe shirin.
Anonymous, gungun masu fafutuka na masu kutse a bayan kai hare-hare a gidajen yanar gizo na kamfanoni da na gwamnati, sun sha alwashin share kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta New York “daga Intanet” a ranar 10 ga Oktoba. Kungiyar ta wallafa wani sako a YouTube tana ayyana yaki a kan kasuwar musayar hajoji mafi girma a duniya a cikin ramuwar gayya game da kamun dimbin masu zanga-zangar ta Wall Street. Sakon bai yi bayani dalla-dalla ba ko barazanar kawai tana magana ne game da hari kan shafin yanar gizo na NYSE, wanda ba zai yi tasiri ba ga kasuwanci ba. Wanda ba a sani ba ya ƙaddamar da ƙin yarda da kai hare-haren sabis a kan shafukan yanar gizo a cikin watanni da yawa, gami da ayyuka a cikin Disamba akan shafukan MasterCard Inc. da Visa Inc.
Barazanar barazanar ta kasance wasu membobin kungiyar Anonymous, wadanda suka ce a shafin Twitter cewa ba a sanya takunkumi ba. Wani sako da aka wallafa a shafin Anonnews.org ya ce ba shi yiwuwa a iya tabbatar da aikin saboda yanayin kungiyar Anonymous a matsayin kungiyar "mara tsari daga tsarin aiki."
Nassim Taleb, marubucin fitaccen littafin nan mai suna "The Black Swan," a yau a cikin taron manema labarai a Kiev cewa rikice-rikicen kasuwar duniya na yanzu ya fi na 2008 muni saboda ƙasashe irin su Amurka suna da ɗimbin nauyi na bashin ƙasa.
Tabbas, muna fuskantar matsala mafi girma yanzu kuma zamu biya mafi tsada. Tsarin matsalar har yanzu ba a fahimta ba. Ba mu yi wani abu mai ma'ana ba a cikin shekaru uku da rabi. Babu wanda yake son yin komai yanzu.
Taleb ya yadu da kalmar “baƙar fata”, wanda ya samo asali ne daga imanin Yammacin duniya da ke cewa duk swans farare ne har sai masu bincike sun gano nau'ikan baƙar fata a Ostiraliya a cikin 1697. Ya yi jayayya cewa abubuwan da ba a tsammani tare da babban tasiri a kasuwanni a zahiri suna faruwa sau da yawa fiye da ƙididdiga. Tattaunawa game da annabta, don haka yana tabbatar da tsadar tsadar shinge kan bala'i.
Ma'aikatan Amurka sun ba da sanarwar yanke mafi yawan aiki a cikin shekaru biyu a watan Satumba, wanda ya jagoranci ragewa a Bank of America Corp. da sojoji. Sanarwar barin aiki ta tashi da kashi 212 bisa dari, wanda shi ne mafi girma da aka samu tun daga watan Janairun 2009, zuwa 115,730 a watan da ya gabata daga 37,151 a watan Satumbar 2010, a cewar Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Cuts a cikin aikin gwamnati, karkashin jagorancin shirin rage sojoji na shekaru biyar, kuma a Bankin Amurka sun kai kusan kashi 70 na sanarwar. Raguwar ayyukan ayyuka, ya kasance bai dace da wani rahoto na daban ba daga na masu biyan albashi ADP wanda ke nuna yawan masu biyan masu zaman kansu ya tashi da 91,000, sama da tsammanin masana tattalin arziki na karin 75,000. ADP ya ce yawancin nasarorin, wanda ya zarta na watan Agusta na 89,000, sun fito ne daga bangaren sabis.
Hannayen jari sun taru kuma kayayyaki sun karye faduwar su ta kwana uku yayin da bayanan tattalin arzikin Amurka ya karu da kimantawa da kuma kyakkyawan fata cewa shugabannin Turai a karshe zasu sake sanya bankuna. Hanyoyin makamashi suna jagorantar fa'idodi yayin da mai ke ci gaba biyo bayan faduwar da ba zata. SPX ya tashi da kashi 1.8 don rufewa a 1,144.03 a 4 na yamma a lokacin New York, yana ƙara zuwa kashi 2.3 na jiya don nuna babbar ribar kwana biyu a cikin wata ɗaya. Masana'antar ta Stoxx ta Turai 600 ta hau kan kashi 3.1, inda ta dakatar da yin kwana uku. Lissafin S&P GSCI na kayan masarufi ya karu da kashi 2.8 bisa dari yayin da man ya tashi da kashi 5.3 zuwa dala 79.68 na ganga, inda ya dawo daga kaso 7.9 da ya fadi a cikin zamannin uku da suka gabata. Lissafin daidaito na Burtaniya FTSE na gaba yana ba da shawarar buɗewa kaɗan a cikin zaman London, adadin yanzu yana sama da 0.5%. makomar SPX ta ragu kusan 0.3%.
Bayanin tattalin arziki wanda zai iya shafar jin daɗi a zaman safe a London da Turai sun haɗa da masu zuwa;
09:30 UK - Lissafin Ayyuka na Yuli
12: 00 UK - Sanarwar MPimar MPC
12:45 Yankin Yankin Turai - Sanarwar Kimantawar ECB
Hasashen shine cewa za a kiyaye darajar ƙimar Burtaniya da ECB a matakan guda. Akwai jita-jitar da ke faruwa a farkon watan Satumba cewa ECB na la'akari da rage darajar kuɗi, amma, idan aka ba da mamaki game da hauhawar farashin Turai da aka bayyana a makon da ya gabata, ƙimar da ke tashi kusan rabin kashi daga 2.5-3%, duk wani raguwa a cikin asalin yana da wuya.
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