Burtaniya da Amurka duka suna buga sakamakon karshe na GDP Q4 dinsu a ranar Juma'a, dukkansu za a sa musu ido sosai, saboda dalilai daban-daban
Dukkanin hukumomin kididdiga na Burtaniya da Amurka sun buga alkaluman GDP na karshe na shekarar 2017, ranar Juma'a 26 ga Janairu. Duk karatun guda biyu za'a sanya su a hankali domin duk wata alamar rauni ta tattalin arziki, ko ci gaba da karfi, yayin da shekarar ta kusa zuwa. Za a lura da karatun Burtaniya a hankali don ƙarin alamun da ke nuna cewa Brexit mai zuwa ba zai shafi tattalin arziki ba, yayin da za a kula da karatun Amurka don duk alamun da ke nuna cewa dala ta ragu, a cikin 2017, ta kasa yin tasiri ga ci gaban ƙasar, wanda aka yi rikodin 'yan shekarun nan.
Da karfe 9:30 na safe agogon GMT (lokacin Landan) a ranar Juma'a 26 ga watan Janairu hukumar UK OnS (alkaluman kididdiga na kasa) hukuma za ta buga kwata-kwata na karshe da shekara kan alkaluman GDP na Burtaniya Hasashen na karatun 0.4% na Q4 na karshe na 2017, wanda ya haifar da shekara guda kan hasashen GDP na ci gaban 1.4%.
Manazarta da masu saka hannun jari za su sa ido a kan waɗannan karatuttukan biyu a hankali, musamman dangane da batun batun Brexit mai zuwa, kamar yadda yawancin masana tattalin arziki da masu sharhi game da kasuwa suka yi imani (kuma hakika sun yi annabta), cewa tattalin arzikin Burtaniya nan da nan zai yi taɓarɓarewar tattalin arziki a ƙarshen 2016 da 2017, saboda don jefa kuri'ar raba gardama don ficewa daga Tarayyar Turai Duk da haka, kamar yadda da yawa suna cikin zafin rai don nunawa; Burtaniya ba ta bar wurin ba tukuna, saboda haka duk wani tasirin tattalin arziki na Brexit ana iya yin hukunci sau ɗaya kawai (kuma idan) Burtaniya ta shiga lokacin canji kuma da zarar ta fita daga ƙarshe.
Karatun Q3 GDP ya shigo a 0.4%, idan adadin Q4 ya shigo kamar yadda aka yi hasashe a 0.4% to adadin adadi na 2017 zai zo a 1.4%, faduwar YoY ta 0.3%, daga 1.7% da aka rubuta a baya. Yayin da wannan zai wakilci faduwar GDP, masana tattalin arziki da yawa za su dauki wannan sakamakon a matsayin karbabbe, idan aka yi la’akari da hasashen tattalin arziki da wuri. Koyaya, idan karatun yazo a cikin 0.5% don Q4, kwatankwacin hasashen da NIESR yayi, ƙungiyar tattalin arziƙi mai zaman kanta, to ana iya kiyaye adadi na GDP na 1.7%. Sterling ya ji daɗin haɗuwa tare da manyan takwarorinsa a cikin 2018, sama da 2% da yawancin takwarorinsu har zuwa kusan 5.5% da dalar Amurka. Idan karatun GDP ya doke hasashen, to sterling na iya samun ƙarin kulawa da kuma sakamakon haka babban aiki.
Da karfe 13:30 na yamma, GMT (lokacin Landan) sabon GDP na tattalin arzikin Amurka za a buga shi ta Ofishin Tattalin Arziki; karatun shekara (QoQ) (4Q A). Hasashen na karatun 3%, faɗuwa daga karatun kashi 3.2% na shekara-shekara wanda aka yiwa rijista don kwatancen baya. Yawan ci gaban YoY a halin yanzu 2.30%.
Duk da shirin rage haraji da aka sanar a karshe wanda ya fara aiki da doka a watan Disamba na 2017, wannan ba da himma ba zai iya aiwatar da aikin GDP a Amurka a lokacin 2017. Babu wata shaida da ke nuna cewa ƙarancin dalar Amurka yana da tasirin da ake so; don haɓaka haɓaka a cikin masana'antun masana'antu da fitarwa. Balance na Amurka na kasuwanci da biyan kuɗi har yanzu yana daɗa haɓaka gibi, shekara zuwa shekara.
Duk wani karatu da ke sama, ko kusa da 3% don jagorantar tattalin arziƙin ƙasashen yamma, ana ɗaukarsa a matsayin mai kyau, saboda haka idan aka rubuta raguwar kowace shekara a cikin haɓakar GDP, daga 3.2% zuwa 3%, to masu sharhi, yan kasuwa da masu saka jari na iya ɗaukar wannan a matsayin karɓaɓɓe, dangane da darajar USD.
MALAMAN TATTALIN ARZIKI NA Burtaniya
• GDP na YoY 1.7%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 0.50%.
• Hawan hauhawar farashin kashi 3%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.3%.
• Girman albashi 2.5%.
• Bashi v GDP 89.3%
• Hadadden PMI 54.9.
MAGANGANUN TATTALIN ARZIKI NA Amurka
• GDP QoQ ya ba da kashi 3.2%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 1.50%.
• Hawan hauhawar farashin kashi 2.10%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.1%.
• Bashi v GDP 106%.
• Hadadden PMI 53.8.
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