ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWESONTO 12/2 - 16/2 | Ukubikwa okuhlukahlukene kwe-GDPs nama-CPIs kuzobe kugxilwe ekhalendeni lezomnotho emasontweni ezayo
Isibalo sakamuva se-Japanese QoQ (Q4) GDP sishicilelwe ngoLwesibili kanti isibikezelo sokwembulwa kokuwa okukhulu, sisuka ku-2.5% kuya ku-0.9%. Uma lesi sibikezelo kuhlangatshezwana naso abatshalizimali bangaphetha ngokuthi imikhosi ephathelene nempumelelo ebonakalayo ye-Abenomics, ibingaphambi kwesikhathi. I-Yen ingase ibe ngaphansi kwengcindezi uma abatshalizimali befika ngokushesha esiphethweni sokuthi ukugqugquzela imali nezimali akukwazi ukutholwa ngokushesha njengoba i-BOJ iphakamise ngaphambili.
Amazwe amabili e-Eurozone, i-Italy ne-Germany, kanye ne-Eurozone ebanzi, babika izibalo zabo zakamuva ze-GDP ngoLwesithathu, izwe elilodwa lemali lithole ukuthuthuka okukhulu ekukhuleni kwe-GDP ngonyaka we-2017, futhi abahlaziyi bazobe befuna ukugcinwa kwalo mkhuba.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali bekuyinto okuxoxwa ngayo kakhulu ezinsukwini ezisanda kwedlula, njengomphumela we-selloff emfushane, ebukhali, lapho izimakethe zezimali zomhlaba jikelele ziye zabhekana nayo. Esinye sezici ezisolwe ngokulahleka okungazelelwe kwemizwa yezimakethe, kubandakanye ukukhuphuka kwemali emholweni e-USA. Lokhu kukhuphuka kuxhunyaniswe ngokungenakuhlukaniswa namanani emali e-CPI, njengamanje aku-2.1%. Isibalo sokwehla kwamandla emali e-USA sizobhekelwa kakhulu, lapho sikhishwa ngoLwesithathu.
I-ejensi yezibalo yase-UK iphinde ishicilele isibalo sayo sakamuva se-CPI. Njengamanje ku-3% iphawundi lase-UK lingathola ukunyakaza uma isibalo sikhuphuka ngaphezu kwaleli zinga. Izinga lamanje le-CPI laseJalimane alikhathazi kangako, kodwa-ke, uma liwela ngaphansi ngaphansi kokufundwa kwamanje okungu-1.6%, abahlaziyi bangacabanga ukuthi i-ECB izobamba noma ikuphi ukunukubeza okunamandla kokugqugquzelwa kwenqubomgomo yezimali yamanje.
Ukuthembela kwe-UK emikhakheni yayo yezokuthengisa kanye nezinsizakalo kubhalwe kahle, ngemuva kokubhekana nokuwa okuphawulekayo nokumangazayo ngenyanga kaDisemba (-1.6%), abahlaziyi bazobe befuna isibalo sokuthengisa sikaJanuwari ukuze babuyele emuva. Uma kunikezwa okunye ukufundwa okungekuhle, lokhu kungafaka i-UK ekufundweni okungekuhle kwe-YoY, okuzomela ukufundwa kokuqala okungekuhle eminyakeni eminingana futhi kuzoba nabahlaziyi bezindaba abaningi abajwayelekile, okuphakamisa ukuthi i-UK kungenzeka idlale ngothando lokwehla kwamandla emali oluzayo. Bangase futhi baphethe ngokuthi uvalo lukaBrexit ekugcineni seluqala ukugcwala imigwaqo ephakeme yase-UK.
Sunday iqala isonto ngemininingwane yakamuva yokuthengisa indlu yaseNew Zealand. Ukuthengisa kwehle ku -10.1% YoY ngoDisemba, abahlaziyi bazobheka imethrikhi ngokucophelela, ngenxa yokwenyuka kweNZ esikweletini sabathengi, uma kuqhathaniswa namanani entengo ezindlu eminyakeni edlule. Imali esetshenziswa ngabadayisi nezikweletu zamakhadi esikweletu kuzosiza ukuqedela ingxenye ye-jigsaw, maqondana nemizwa yabathengi.
UMsombuluko iyaqhubeka ingqikithi yemininingwane yase-Australasia, njengoba kushicilelwa izilinganiso zamakhadi esikweletu zakamuva kanye nezibalo zokuthenga. Njengoba iYurophu ivula, kuvezwa izibalo zakamuva ze-CPI zaseSwitzerland, njengamanje eziku-0.8% YoY, isibikezelo asikho ushintsho. Imali ekhishwa masonto onke ohlelweni lwebhange laseSwitzerland nayo iyakhishwa. Ngasekupheleni kweseshini yaseNew York isitatimende sakamuva sebhajethi sase-US sibikiwe, lapho isibalo sikaDisemba sangena ku- $ 53.1. Usuku luvalwa ngesikhulu se-RBA sase-Australia uMnu u-Ellis ethula inkulumo eSydney, ngemuva kwalokho izintengo zakamuva zezinkampani zaseJapan ziyashicilelwa.
NgoLwesibili iqala ngezibalo zakamuva zokuzethemba zabathengi base-NAB base-Australia, imiphumela yokuthengwa kwamabhondi yakamuva kanye nama-oda wamathuluzi emishini eJapan azobhekwa ngokucophelela. Ukunakwa bese kuphendukela e-UK (uma izimakethe zase-Europe zivulekile), njengoba kushicilelwa iqoqo lemethrikhi yamanani emali. Ukufundwa okubalulekile yi-CPI, njengamanje eku-3% isibalo sakamuva sizocutshungulwa, okuza ngemuva nje kwesinqumo sezinga le-BoE (elibanjwe ku-0.5%) kanye nombiko wekota lokwehla kwamandla emali wekota. I-RPI, ngaphandle kokukhokha imali ebanjiswayo, okwamanje iku-4.1%, isibalo okungafanele singanakwa ngesikhathi somsindo nokugxila maqondana ne-CPI. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-govt yakamuva. Izibalo zokwehla kwamandla emali ezindlini zase-UK zizobikwa, njengamanje ku-YoY yokukhula ngo-5.1%. Lesi sibalo sibukeka sisongelwa, ngokuya ngamanye amamethrikhi wamanani entengo yendlu. Isibalo seGDP sakamuva saseJapan sivala izindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho ezibalulekile zosuku, isibikezelo sokwehla kweQoQ GDP kwehle ku-0.9% ku-Q4 2017, kuqhathaniswa nokufundwa kwangaphambilini kuka-2.5%.
NgoLwesithathuUkugxila kwabatshalizimali kumele kugxile ezibalweni zakamuva ze-GDP ze: Germany, Italy kanye ne-Eurozone ebanzi. Ngenkathi umnotho waseGerman uhlala ungaphansi kwesibonakhulu, umnotho wase-Italy wenze ukuthuthuka okuphawulekayo ngonyaka we-2017, wakhuphukela ku-1.7% YoY we-Q3 2017, ukuqhubeka kwalo mkhuba kungenzeka kuveze iphethini yokukhula okuthuthukile emazweni adlule phambilini. Isibalo sokugcina se-Q3 Euro Zone GDP sifike ku-2.7% kanti nokulondolozwa kwaleli zinga lokukhula kulindeleke. Kubekwe phakathi kwemininingwane ye-GDP imethrikhi yakamuva ye-CPI yaseJalimane izolethwa; njengamanje ku-1.6% isibalo se-YoY sithinteke kabi ngokufundwa kwe-MoM -0.7% ngoDisemba, ngakho-ke lesi sibalo singakhuphuka i-YoY uma isibalo se-MoM sibuyela endaweni enhle. Izibalo zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-Euro Zone zizovezwa, njengamanje ekukhuleni kukaYoY okungu-3.2%, okulindelwe kungoshintsho oluncane.
Njengokunakwa kushintshelwa e-USA, isibalo se-CPI sakamuva sizokhishwa. Njengamanje ku-2.1%, abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi bazoqapha ngokucophelela lesi sibalo. Kuzodedelwa isihlenga sezibalo eziphathelene namanani entengo aseMelika athuthukile kanye namanani entengo. Izibalo zakamuva zokukhushulwa kwamaholo e-USA nazo zizovezwa, njengoba kuzoba njalo nangezinhlu zamabhizinisi; okulindeleke ukuthi zehlele ku-0.2%, kusukela ekufundweni okungu-0.4% okurekhodwe ngoNovemba. Kuzobikwa imininingwane ehlukahlukene ephethiloli nophethiloli we-USA, kanti usuku luphela ngemininingwane yaseJapan kuma-oda emishini.
NgoLwesineImininingwane ebalulekile yekhalenda iqala ngokufundwa kwakamuva kwabantu abangasebenzi e-Australia, kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ku-5.5%. Imiphumela yokuthengwa kwamabhondi eJapan izobhekwa ngokucophelela ukuze kusetshenziswe izinkomba okungenzeka ukuthi i-BOJ isusa inqubomgomo yayo yemali yokuhlala. Idatha yokukhiqiza yezimboni yakamuva yaseJapan nayo izoshicilelwa, kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale isondele kwinani lokukhula kwe-YoY elingu-4.2% elirekhodwe kuze kube nguNovemba. Idatha ebaluleke kakhulu yaseYurophu eyethulwe ngalolu suku iphathelene nebhalansi yezohwebo ye-Eurozone ngoDisemba, okulindeleke ukuthi iveze insalela enempilo.
Njengoba izimakethe zase-US zivulwa, kulindeleke ukuthi umbiko wakamuva wokukhiqizwa koMbuso wethule inani elingashintshiwe ngoFebhuwari ka-17.7. Idatha yesimangalo eqhubekayo futhi ekhona engasebenzi nayo izoshicilelwa. Izibalo zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-USA zizovezwa, kulindeleke ukuthi zifike ku-0.3% ngoJanuwari, ukwehla kusuka ku-0.9% kubikwe ngoDisemba. Idatha yokukhiqiza nokusetshenziswa kwamandla nayo izomenyezelwa, ngenkathi i-NAHB ikhipha imethrikhi yabo yenkomba yakamuva, isibikezelo sokuthi sizofika ngo-73 ngoFebhuwari.
On Friday abahlaziyi bazobhekisa izibalo zakamuva zokuthengisa zase-UK. NgoDisemba ukudayiswa kwezitolo kwehle ngo -1.6%. Uma kubikwa esinye isibalo esingesihle sanyanga zonke ngoJanuwari, ukuthengisa kweYoY nakho kungaletha ukufundwa okungekuhle, ezweni elincike kakhulu emkhakheni wezentengiselwano wokuqashwa kanye nokugqugquzelwa komnotho lokhu kungahle kube nemiphumela emithethweni ye-GBP. Ukuthengiswa kokukhiqizwa kweCanada ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuseduze nezinga lokukhula elingu-3.4% elibikiwe ngoNovemba, kanti amanani kaJanuwari wokungenisa e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke ngo-0.6% MoM, kusuka ku-0.1% ngoDisemba- ukukhuphuka okukhulu okuzoba nokungqongqoza umthelela emininingwaneni yamanani emali ezayo. Izintengo zokungenisa ze-YoY nazo zingakhuphuka ngaphezu kwezinga lamanje elingu-3%.
Izimvume zokwakhiwa kwezindlu kanye nokuqala kwezindlu kulindeleke ukuthi zenze intuthuko ethile yonyaka ngoJanuwari. Umbiko wemizwa yenyuvesi yaseMichigan ngoFebhuwari uzobhekelwa ngeso lokhozi noma yiziphi izimpawu ezikhombisa ukuthi ukholo lwezomnotho lwabathengi base-USA luya ngokuncipha. Isonto liphela ngokubalwa kwendabuko kukaB Baker Hughes e-USA, ngenxa yokwehla kwentengo ye-WTI muva nje, ngenxa yokwesaba ukukhiqiza ngokweqile, lokhu kubalwa kwama-rig kuzobhekwa kakhulu.
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