I-Yuan iwela ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2008 njenge-PboC Ilahlekelwa Ukulawula
I-yuan yezwe yehlele ezingeni layo elibuthaka kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nedola kusukela ngenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba yango-2008 phakathi nokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kwemali yase-US ekuhwebeni ngemali kanye namahemuhemu okuthi i-China yenza lula ukusekelwa kwemali yasendaweni.
I-yuan yasekhaya yaba buthaka yaba ngu-7.2256 ngedola ngalinye, izinga elingazange libonwe eminyakeni engu-14, kuyilapho izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-offshore lehla lirekhodi eliphansi ngo-2010, ngokusho kwedatha. I-People's Bank of China ikhombe i-yuan ngamaphoyinti angu-444 ngaphezu kwevelu emaphakathi, ngokocwaningo lwe-Bloomberg. Umehluko ubumncane kakhulu kusukela ngomhlaka-13 Septhemba, okuphakamisa ukuthi i-Beijing ingase idambise ukusekela kwayo uhlobo lwemali njengoba idola liqina kanye namazinga okushintshanisa amazwe ehla.
"Ukulungisa kunikeza amandla emakethe indawo eyengeziwe yokukhohlisa i-yuan ngokusekelwe ekungafani kwenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nokuguquguquka kwemakethe," kusho uFiona Lim, usomaqhinga omkhulu wemali e-Malaya Banking Bhd eSingapore. “Lokhu akusho ukuthi i-PBOC ngeke isebenzise amanye amathuluzi ukuxhasa i-yuan. Sicabanga ukuthi umnyakazo wasekuseni ungasiza ekubambeni amabhuleki kwezinye izimali ezingewona amadola abesevele enengcindezi.”
I-yuan yasekhaya yehle ngaphezu kuka-4% uma iqhathaniswa nedola kule nyanga futhi isendleleni yokulahlekelwa kwayo okukhulu konyaka kusukela ngo-1994. Imali ingaphansi kwengcindezi ephansi njengoba ukwehlukana kwezwe kwenqubomgomo yezimali kuleyo yase-US kubangela ukuphuma kwezimali. Izikhulu ze-Federal Reserve, kuhlanganise noMongameli we-St. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iBeijing isalokhu ibuthakathaka phakathi kwezingozi zokwehla kwamandla emali njengoba isidingo siwela ngaphansi kwesisindo senkinga yezindlu eqhubekayo kanye nemikhawulo ye-Covid.
Ukungenelela kwe-PBoC
I-PBoC izama ukusekela i-yuan, nakuba lezi zinyathelo zibe nemiphumela elinganiselwe. Lokho kusetha ukulungiswa kwe-yuan okunamandla kunokulindelwe kumaseshini angu-25 aqondile, uchungechunge olude kunawo wonke selokhu kwaqala inhlolovo ye-Bloomberg yango-2018. Ngaphambilini, wehlise imfuneko encane yokugcinwa kwemali yangaphandle emabhange.
Ukuncipha kokumelana kwe-NBK ngoLwesithathu kungase kube ngenxa yokuthi i-yuan ihlale izinzile uma iqhathaniswa nezimali zabalingani bayo abakhulu abangu-24, ngokusho kwedatha ye-Bloomberg, eboniswa yinkomba yesikhathi sangempela ye-CFETS-RMB. Abanye abahlaziyi baphinde bacabange ukuthi i-China ingase ingakwazi ukumelana nokwehla kwenani le-yuan, njengoba uhlobo lwemali olubuthaka lungathuthukisa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe futhi lusekele umnotho ohamba kancane.
Amanye amazwe azama ukusekela ngokumelene ne-USD
Khonamanjalo, abenzi bezinqubomgomo e-Japan, South Korea nase-India bayaqinisa ukuvikela izimali zabo njengoba umbuthano wedola ukhombisa ukwehla kancane. Inothi le-Nomura Holdings Inc liphakamisa ukuthi amabhange amaphakathi ase-Asia angavula “umugqa wesibili wokuzivikela” njengamathuluzi e-macroprudential kanye ne-akhawunti yemali.
UBrian Deese, umqondisi we-White House National Economic Council, uthe akalindele esinye isivumelwano sonyaka ka-1985 phakathi kweminotho emikhulu ukuze simelane namandla edola. Idola lingase libone izinzuzo ezengeziwe njengoba i-US ibonakala ingenandaba nokunyuka kwemali, kusho u-Rajiv De Mello, umphathi wephothifoliyo enkulu yomhlaba wonke kwa-GAMA Asset Management e-Geneva. "Empeleni kuyabasiza ukuthi balwe nokwehla kwamandla emali," esho. Izibikezelo ezintsha ze-bearish ze-yuan zivele kuleli sonto. UMorgan Stanley ubikezela intengo yokuphela konyaka engaba ngu-$7.3 ngedola ngalinye. I-United Overseas Bank yehlise isibikezelo sayo sezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-yuan sisuka ku-7.1 saya ku-7.25 maphakathi nonyaka ozayo.
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