Ngabe intengo yamanani entengo yabathengi yakamuva evela e-USA, izonikeza ukukhanya okuluhlaza ku-FOMC ukukhuphula amazinga enzalo emhlanganweni wabo kaDisemba?
Emithonjeni ehlukahlukene yase-USA ngoLwesihlanu, sithola okwakamuva: idatha ye-CPI, ukuthengisa okuthuthukile kanye nocwaningo lokuzethemba lwenyuvesi yaseMichigan. I-trinity yamamethrikhi abaluleke kakhulu, kepha ahluke ngokugqamile azokhanyisa imisebe ehlukahlukene: ukukhula, ukuzethemba nokusebenza, kwezici ezahlukahlukene zomnotho wase-USA. Futhi ngemizuzu ye-FOMC eyethusayo esanda kushicilelwa, okungenzeka ukuthi yashintsha umbono abatshalizimali abaningi abanayo; maqondana nezifiso zeFed zokuzibandakanya ekuqiniseni okuningana nokukhuphula amanani enzalo ngonyaka we-2018, lezi zibalo zizobhekwa ngeso elibukhali, nganoma yiziphi izimpawu zobuthakathaka besakhiwo, kunoma yiziphi izindawo zomnotho wase-USA.
I-CPI kulindeleke ukuthi ingene ngo-2.3%, ngaphambi kuka-1.9% oqoshwe ngenyanga ka-Agasti. Imizuzu ye-FOMC iphakamise ukuthi izinhloko ezithile ze-Fed zesifunda zifuna ukubona ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphezu kwesibalo sokwehla kwamandla emali okungu-2%, ngaphambi kokuthi bahambise ivoti ngazwilinye, ukukhuphula inani lenzalo emhlanganweni wokugcina we-FOMC ka-2017, obuhlelelwe uDisemba 12-13. Uma isibikezelo sokwehla kwamandla emali sihlangatshezwa ngoLwesihlanu, abatshalizimali bamadola bangahumusha ngokushesha lo mphumela njengobufakazi bokuthi ukukhuphuka kwamazinga kuzokwenzeka, futhi, bangakholelwa ukuthi i-FOMC inezinhlamvu ezanele zokuzibandakanya ohlelweni lwe-QT futhi namazinga enyuka ngo-2018, kushiwo emihlanganweni nasemaminithini edlule.
Ukuthengisa okuthuthukile okuthuthukile kunikeza ukuqonda okuhle kakhulu ekuthembekeni okuphelele okuzwiwa ngabathengi base-USA; ngabe bafaka ama-oda wokuhambisa, ikakhulukazi, izinto ezinkulu zamathikithi? Umnotho wase-USA ungokokubili kokuthathu okuqhutshwa ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi, ngakho-ke noma ikuphi ukwehla ngokuvamile kubhekiswe kubenzi benqubomgomo yezimali. Isibikezelo esokufundwa kokukhula okungu-1.7% ngoSepthemba, okuzokhombisa ukuguqulwa okukhulu, kusuka ku -0.2% isibalo esibhaliselwe u-Agasti.
Inkomba yokuzethemba yaseyunivesithi yaseMichigan, kungenzeka ingahlonishwa njengeNkomfa Yebhodi Yezinkomfa Yabathengi, kodwa-ke, isabhekwe kakhulu ngabatshalizimali, ngoba ngokomlando kungenye yezindawo ezifundwa kakhulu zokuzethemba e-USA. Izibalo ze-UMich zinomlando wokudlulela phambili ekuphendukeni kwe-GDP yonke. Isibalo esiyinhloko sibalwa ngokukhipha iphesenti lezimpendulo ezingathandeki, kusuka kumaphesenti ezimpendulo ezinhle. Ukufundwa kukaSepthemba kungene ngo-95.1, izibikezelo zika-Okthoba ngeze-95.
IZINKOMPHA ZOKUSEBENZA KOMNOTHO EZISEMQOKA E-USA.
• Ukukhula kweGDP 3.1%.
• Ukungasebenzi 4.4%.
• I-CPI (ukwehla kwamandla emali) 1.9%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni v GDP 106%.
• Ukukhula komholo u-2.95%.
• Izinga lenzalo ebalulekile 1.25%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 54.8.
• Izimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside zi-1.7%.
• Ukuzethemba komthengi 95.1.
• Ukuthengisa ngokuthengisa YoY 3.2%.
« Idola laseMelika liwa njengoba imizuzu ye-FOMC ikhombisa ithoni eyinqaba kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelekile, imibuthano ye-euro ngokuqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu I-Sterling whipsaws ngobudlova, njengoba izingqinamba zeBrexit ziqala ukugxila kakhulu. Izimakethe eziningi zokulingana zomhlaba zifinyelela phezulu »
