Ngabe i-FOMC izokhuphula inani lenzalo esemqoka futhi imemezele uhlelo lokuqiniswa kwamanani?
NgoJanuwari 2017, usihlalo weFed uJanet Yellen, wethula isitatimende se-hawkish, esikhombisa ukuthi i-Fed izokhuphula inzalo ebalulekile kathathu phakathi nonyaka, uma yena nekomidi lakhe bebona ukuthi umnotho wase-USA unamandla okwanele ukubhekana evuka. Ngokuvumelana nokuzibophezela kwakhe, izinga lanyuswa ngokufanele ngoMashi laphinde laphindwa ngoJuni.
Izinga likaJuni limangaze abahlaziyi abaningi, njengoba kumenyezelwe ngenkathi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuncipha. I-Fed nayo yaqala ukuvula ifasitela lezingxoxo maqondana nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “ukuphumula okukhulu”; indlela iFed enciphisa ngayo, ngalokho okubizwa ngokuthi "ukuqina okulinganiselwe", ibhalansi ebhalisiwe ibe ngu- $ 4.5 trillion, kusukela ezingeni lika- $ 1 trillion ngo-2017, elandisiwe ukuze kutakulwe noma kuvuselelwe umnotho wase-USA, ngokusebenzisa isikhuthazi esinolaka nesokuzama uhlelo.
Ngokusobala, idatha eningi yezomnotho ithanda isimemezelo sokukhuphuka kwesilinganiso sesithathu (mhlawumbe esokugcina) sika-2017, lapho i-FOMC iphetha imihlangano yabo yangoLwesithathu. Okuphikisana nalokho ukuthi: ukwehla kwamandla emali kusengaphansi kwesibalo sika-2%, amaholo ayama, ukukhula kwe-GDP kusanda kutholakala, kuneziphepho / iziphepho ezishisayo ezizolulama ngokwezimali, njll. Ngamafuphi kusekhona ukuxega okuthile, umnotho wasekhaya kunganciphisa, ngaphambi kokuba elinye izinga lokukhuphuka lifakwe engcupheni.
Bese kuba khona nodaba lwedola laseMelika okufanele licatshangelwe; ukwehla kwayo eweni kuqhathaniswa nontanga yayo abaningi selokhu uTrump ethole isikhundla sobumongameli, izindaba ezimnandi kubathengisi nabakhiqizi ekuqaleni, njengedola elishibhile (ngombono) likhuthaza ukuthengisa futhi likhuthaza ukukhula, kepha izindleko zokuthengisa ezingenisiwe ekugcineni zishaya izindleko zokukhiqiza, ngaphandle kokuthi konke izinto zitholakala ekhaya. I-FOMC izokwazi ukuthi isikhathi seGoldilocks sokwenza, kungenzeka ukuthi siyaphela. Bazokwazi nokuthi i-USA ingumngenisi omkhulu wenetha nokuthi cishe u-80% womnotho usekelwa ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi cishe kuwo wonke amadola okugcina abanayo; Izilinganiso zokonga ziyahlupheka eduze kwawo wonke amazinga aphansi ka-3.5%. Idola eliphakeme kancane lingathathwa njengenzuzo emnothweni, esikhathini esifushane kuya kwaphakathi.
Ukuvumelana okujwayelekile, okuvela kosomnotho abavotelwe yizinhlangano zezindaba iBloomberg neReuters, akulona ushintsho, kusuka ezingeni lamanje lokweboleka elikhulukazi elingu-1.25%. Kodwa-ke, uma isilinganiso singahlala singashintshi, ukunakwa kuzosheshe kugxile ekulandiseni okuhambisanayo okulethwe ngokushicilelwa kwesinqumo, njengoba abatshalizimali bezokhipha ngokushesha amagama abhaliwe nawakhulunywayo, ukuthola noma imiphi imininingwane maqondana nesikhathi sebhalansi engaba khona.
Imininingwane eyinhloko yezomnotho, maqondana nalo mcimbi wekhalenda lezomnotho
Isilinganiso senzalo esingu-1.25%
• Ukukhula kweGDP YoY 2.6%
Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.4%
Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali 1.9%
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni esilinganisweni seGDP 106%
• Isilinganiso semali etholwa ngehora esingu-0.1%
Ukukhula komholo YoY 2.95%
• Isikweletu sangasese v GDP 200%
• Ukuthengisa ngokuthengisa i-YoY 3.2%
Imali yomuntu siqu engu-3.5%
« Igolide lisongela ukuwela ngesibambo esingu- $ 1300, izimali zase-US zifinyelela phezulu, ama-yen alahlekelwa isikhalazo, futhi idola laseMelika lenyuka Izimali zaseMelika zikhuphuka njengoba uTrump ethula ikheli lakhe elingavamile emhlanganweni weZizwe Ezihlangene, idola liwa ngokuncane, igolide lihlala liyisicaba »
