Ngabe i-FOMC izolandela ukuzibophezela kwabo; ukukhuphula amanani kathathu ngo-2017?
Emhlanganweni wabo wokugcina wango-2017, ozophothulwa ngoLwesithathu Novemba 1, i-FOMC (izihlalo zawo wonke ama-Feds ezifunda), izophetha umhlangano wayo ngokumemezela isinqumo sayo maqondana nezinga lenzalo yamanje ye-USA. Isimemezelo ngokuvamile silandelwa yisithangami sabezindaba kanye / noma umqulu, oveza izizathu zokuthi kungani kuthathwe isinqumo.
Imvamisa ngesikhathi sokuhlaziywa okusheshayo kwemibhalo, noma ngesikhathi sengqungquthela yabezindaba, lapho abatshalizimali bezothola ukuqonda okwengeziwe ngesisusa se-FOMC nokuholwa phambili; ingabe umyalezo ophelele uwuthengisi, noma uyisidomu? Ngabe izihlalo zeFed zisebenza ngendlela ye-hawkish; ngokubheka ukuvimbela inqubomgomo yezimali engalawuleki ebikade ikhona eminyakeni edlule ngokusebenzisa amazinga aphuthumayo / aphansi kanye nokuncipha kwenani? Noma bazoqhubeka nenqubomgomo yedokodo; ngokugcina amazinga ephansi futhi ekhombisa ukuthi ukuqiniswa kwamanani ngeke kwenzeke, nganoma yisiphi isilinganiso sokuphuthuma, ku-2018?
Ngasekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo, kusuka ezingeni lamanje elingu-1.25% kuya ku-1.5%, kubukeke kuyinto engeke isamenyezelwa ngoLwesithathu, ngokuhambisana nokuzibophezela okwenziwe ekuqaleni konyaka yi-FOMC; ukukhuphula amanani kathathu ngo-2017. Kodwa-ke, ukuvumelana okukhona njengamanje kwabaningi bezomnotho abavotelwe ngeBloomberg neReuters, manje kubonakala kuxubekile. Eziningana manje ziphakamisa ukuthi isilinganiso sokhiye sizohlala ku-1.25% kuze kube sekuqaleni kuka-2018, yize kunodedangendlale lwedatha yamuva e-USA eshaya izibikezelo; I-GDP ikhuphukile yize kulinyazwe isiphepho sakamuva, ukwehla kwamandla emali akulungile ku-2.2%, ukungasebenzi kusondele eminyakeni eyishumi ephansi, amaholo ayakhuphuka, ukuthengisa nokuthengisa okuqinile kukhuphukile futhi nokuzethemba kwabathengi kubonakala kuphezulu. Imininingwane iveza ukuthi umnotho unamandla okwanele ukubhekana nochungechunge lwamazinga okukhuphuka kwamanani, ukuze kube nokujwayela amazinga abe ngu-3%, ngekota yesithathu yonyaka we-2018.
Le nqubo yokwenza okujwayelekile, kuhlanganiswe neFed eqala ukuzikhiphela ibhalansi yayo engu- $ 4.5 trillion, ngendlela yenqubo ebizwa ngokuthi "ukuqina kwamanani", kwakuyinqubomgomo echazwe nguJanet Yellen ngonyaka we-2017, manje osekubonakala ukuthi izingqinamba zingathathelwa indawo ukukhetha kukaTrump, njengoSihlalo weFed ngoFebhuwari. Lolu shintsho olungaba khona lungaphinde lube nomthelela esinqumweni se-FOMC; mhlawumbe ukuqokwa okusha akufanele kuzuze ifa lenqubomgomo yangaphambilini.
Njengoba isimemezelo sikhishwa, ngesikhathi nangemva nje kokubanjwa kwesithangami sabezindaba, singalindela ukubona ukunyakaza nge-USD, kuqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu futhi ngaphezu kwalokho iningi lontanga bayo. Ngokwemvelo ukunyakaza kuzoncika ngokwedlulele ezingeni lanoma yikuphi ukukhuphuka nokuthi i-hawkish, noma idonsela kanjani ukulandisa okuphelele. I-USD yenze inzuzo ebonakalayo uma iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abambalwa emasontweni adlule, ngakho-ke imakethe kungenzeka ukuthi isivele inentengo kunoma yikuphi ukukhuphuka kwezinga futhi umthelela (uma ngempela kukhushulwa izinga kumenyezelwa). Okuqinisekile ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwesilinganiso se-circa 0.25% akulindelekile. Kodwa-ke, abathengisi kufanele balungise izikhundla zabo ngokucophelela futhi ngokufanele, njengoba izinqumo zamazinga wenzalo ngaphandle kokungabaza zingenye yezinto ezibalulekile, umthelela omkhulu, imicimbi yekhalenda phakathi nonyaka nokuphendula kwezimakethe kungalindeleka kakhulu.
IMINININGWANE YOKUQHUBEKA YOKUQHUBEKA KWEZOMNOTHO E-USA
• Isilinganiso senzalo 1.25%.
• Ukukhula kweGDP 3%.
• Ukukhula kweGDP ngonyaka ngo-2.3%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.2%.
• Ukukhula komholo u-3.2%.
• I-CPI (ukwehla kwamandla emali) 2.2%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni v GDP 106%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 55.7.
• Izimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside zi-2.2%.
• Ukuthengisa okuthengiswayo 4.4%.
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