Ngabe idola lizolandela isonto lalo elihamba phambili onyakeni, ngokuthi liphinde likhuphuke kuleli sonto, njengoba isimemezelo sokukhuphuka kwamazinga enzalo e-FOMC sibonakala sisondele?
Izinkinga zamanje, ezivelele, zezombusazwe e-USA, zisekelwe yizindaba ezibalulekile ezikhuthazayo, ukuthumela i-SPX ne-DJIA indices ukuthi iqophe phezulu ngoLwesihlanu. Uhlelo lokushintshwa kwentela lubukeka luzoba umthetho futhi uhulumeni wase-US wagwema ukuvalwa okuhleliwe (ngenxa yesikweletu sawo sika-$20+ trillion), njengoba abenzi bomthetho bavuma ukwelulwa kwezikweletu zesikhashana. Njengoba kubonakala kuyinto evamile entsha, isikweletu esikhulu sase-USA, noma ngabe; inkampani, abathengi, uhulumeni, noma i-Federal Reserve, ibekwe eceleni ngokuphelele futhi akuxoxwa ngakho emithonjeni yezindaba yezezimali evamile, mhlawumbe ngenxa yokwesaba ukuphazamisa ukuphishekela ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla.
Iqhubeka nendikimba yezikweletu, umthengi waseMelika kanye nomsebenzi kumele bazizwe belondeke kakhulu, naphezu kokuthi amaholo ehlulekile ukukhuphuka njengoba bekubikezelwe ngoLwesihlanu (iza ngokukhula ngo-2.5% ngo-YoY), njengoba izakhamizi zaseMelika zisanda kunyusa isikweletu sazo samakhadi esikweletu safinyelela ngaphezulu kwe- $ 1 trillion. , emele cishe isikweletu esingu-$8,300 umuzi ngamunye. Izinombolo ze-NFP ezishicilelwe ngoLwesihlanu zizobe sezingezelele emuzweni wethemba labantu baseMelika, njengoba yedlula isibikezelo seReuters sokuthi kunemisebenzi engu-195k eyengezwe ngoNovemba, ingena ku-221k.
Inqubekelaphambili yokuguqulwa kwentela, isandiso sesikweletu sikahulumeni, izinombolo ze-NFP ezishaya isibikezelo, zengezwe emhlanganweni oseduze we-FOMC, esiphethweni lapho abahlaziyi abaningi beqiniseka ukuthi izinga lenzalo lizokhuphukela ku-1.50, lengezwe kumqondo wethemba lemakethe futhi likhuthaze ingozi. kusimo sengqondo kuzo zonke izimakethe ngoLwesihlanu. Idola laseMelika lisabele kahle ekufundweni kwe-NFP, ngokukhuphuka ngoLwesihlanu uma liqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu, ngesikhathi lijabulela izinzuzo zalo zamasonto onke ka-2017, uma liqhathaniswa nobhasikidi walo nontanga yalo. Umbuzo owodwa obalulekile wabahwebi bamadola aseMelika kuleli sonto uthi; ingabe imali izokhuphuka uma (njengoba kulindelekile) sithola isimemezelo esivela ku-FOMC (ngemuva kokuthi umhlangano wabo wezinsuku ezimbili uphele ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa ngo-19:00 GMT) sokukhuphuka kwezinga, noma ingabe izinga lenzalo selivele lithengisiwe?
Naphezu kokuthi i-UK ibonakale yenza impumelelo ekuseni ngoLwesihlanu mayelana ne-Brexit, abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali basheshe baqaphela ukuthi isivumelwano sasiyimfucumfucu kanye nokuthi imigqa ebomvu ehlukahlukene eyakhiwe yi-Tories maqondana nezingxoxo, isuliwe. phambi kwamehlo e-hardliner Brexiters. I-UK yavuma ngokuphelele kuzo zonke izimfuno zayo zasekuqaleni, kodwa manje isizuze ilungelo lokuxoxa ngesivumelwano sohwebo, esingeke sikwazi ukuvuna i-UK ngezindleko zabasele abangama-27, noma abanye ozakwethu bamazwe ngamazwe, njengokuthi; Japan naseCanada. Okungcono kakhulu i-UK okungenzeka inethemba layo yisivumelwano sesitayela saseCanada, noma isivumelwano saseNorway, kodwa imodeli yaseNorway izobandakanya uhlobo lokunyakaza kwamahhala.
Njengoba sasikisela ngesikhathi blog post ngolwesihlanu; omunye wemiphumela engenzeka, ukuze udlulele esigabeni sesibili, kungaba yimfucuza; uhulumeni wase-UK ukhohlisa abavoti babo be-Brexit abaqinile ukuthi babambelele emalini yabo, kuyilapho empeleni bengenzanga lutho, ngaphandle kokuvota okwamanje ukuze baphume ezinqumweni ze-EU futhi bakhokhe imali efika ku-€50b yokuphuma, ukuze bathole ilungelo. yokumiswa yiqhwa ngaphandle kwebhulokhi yokuhweba esebenza kahle kakhulu emhlabeni. Lapho izindaba zesivumelwano esixakile sase-UK seziqala ukubonakala, i-sterling yalahlekelwa iningi lezinzuzo zayo zangoLwesihlanu, yavalwa iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu. Ngokwemvelo abahwebi bazobe bebheke ezinye izindaba ze-Brexit kuleli sonto, ukuze bathathe izikhundla eziphakeme, noma baphathe ukubheja kwabo kwamanje okuphakathi nendawo ukuya kwesikhathi eside.
Igolide libhekane nesikhathi esibi sokuhweba ngesonto eledlule, kubatshalizimali. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, noma yibaphi abathengisi ababebheke ukuhwebelana nsuku zonke ngezokuphepha ze-XAU/USD, banikezwe amathuba amafushane kakhulu. Njengoba iqale isonto cishe ngo-1280, inani lehle laya cishe ku-1243 ngesikhathi esisodwa phakathi neseshini yangoLwesihlanu eNew York, ukwehla okungama-3% phakathi nesonto, kubuyisele inani lensimbi eyigugu kumazinga ka-August. Akungabazeki ukuthi abahwebi bazoqapha isimo se-Wall Street nezimakethe zomhlaba, ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi isikhalazo sendawo ephephile kanye nenani lingehla ngokuqhubekayo, maqondana nengozi endaweni ehlala iqinile.
IZENZAKALO ZEKHALENDA EZISEMQOKA ZOMNOTHO NGO-DECEMBER 11.
• Ama-oda wethuluzi lomshini we-JPY (YoY) (NOV P).
• I-CHF Isamba Sediphozithi Yokubona CHF (DEC 08).
• USD JOLTS Job Openings (OCT).
« ISITHOMBE SEMAKHI ESIVIKIWEYO 11 / 12-15 / 12 | Amabhange aphakathi agxila kakhulu kuleli sonto elizayo njengoba i-FOMC, i-ECB ne-BoE bonke beveza izinqumo zabo zakamuva zokubeka amazinga USterling ushelele njengoba uNgqongqoshe wase-UK ebuyela emuva esivumelwaneni seBrexit, e-USA equites ibeka elinye irekhodi eliphezulu, ukukhuphuka kwedola laseMelika, njengoba kubukeka sengathi inzalo yenzalo izomenyezelwa ngoLwesithathu »
