Okthoba 18 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-12207 • 1 Comment ku Lapho Amaphuzu Omunwe
Abahlaziyi bezimakethe nabahlaziyi ababhalela ukuthandwa kwe-FT, Bloomberg neReuters bangafuna ukuzama ukubhala indaba yezomnotho maqondana nemininingwane ebuthakathaka ngaphandle kokuthi 'basole' iYurophu .. ”O, ngibona umnotho waseChina usukhule ngezinga elincane kakhulu iminyaka emibili, lokho kuzoba yilabo bantu baseYurophu abakhathazekile kanye nenkinga yabo yasebhange futhi .. ”lokhu kuyinsolo yakamuva.
Umnotho waseChina ukhule ngamaphesenti ayi-9.1 kuphela kwikota yesithathu uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka owedlule, okuyisivinini esiphansi kunazo zonke kusukela ngo-2009, okwenza amanani ezimpahla aphansi. Inzuzo ibingaphansi kwesilinganiso esiphakathi kwamaphesenti ayi-9.3 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News labacwaningi bezomnotho abangama-22 futhi ilandele ukwanda ngamaphesenti ayi-9.5 ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule. Ihhovisi lezibalo likhiphe imininingwane eBeijing ekuqaleni kwanamuhla. Inkomba ye-stockmark yase-Asia yehle cishe ngamaphesenti angu-2.4 ngemuva kokukhula kweChina kunqunyelwe isikweletu esiqinile nokufunwa okuthe xaxa okuvela eYurophu nase-USA. Ukwehla kwejubane lokwanda kweChina, okuhlala kuze kube kahlanu kunokwaseMelika, kungasiza uNdunankulu uWen Jiabao ukunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali njengamanje ngaphezu kwenhloso kahulumeni.
Kungenzeka yini ukuthi ukukhula kweChina akufani nokwendawo yethu eyanda njalo futhi akukwazi ukweqa imithetho ye-physics noma yezomnotho? Emnothweni wethu osizakalayo nowomhlaba wonke kwesinye isikhathi umculo kufanele ume. Ziphi izimakethe ezintsha zaseChina zezimpahla nezinsizakalo zabo? Ngenkathi ngokungangabazeki iyindawo yamandla kwezomnotho inzuzo enkulu abayinikeza abaseNtshonalanga ukuthengwa okungapheli kwempahla eshibhile ngenxa yomsebenzi oshibhile nosetshenziswayo.
Uma i-Apple ingakhokhi amaholo amaShayina ukukhiqiza nokuba yisizinda sokusatshalaliswa kwemikhiqizo yabo, kepha isafuna ukugcina inqwaba yemali engu- $ 75 billion, izindleko ze-iPad zizokhuphuka zisuka ku- £ 500 ziye ku- £ 2000. Ukuze 'bathuthukise' ukukhiqizwa kwabo iChina idinga izinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nophethiloli ngamanani amakhulu, kukhuphule ngqo izindleko zezinsizakusebenza ezilinganiselwe zabo bonke. Amandla ezomnotho kungenzeka kepha isimangaliso akusona futhi empeleni akuyona 'i-rocket science' ukuthola ukuthi 'bakwenza kanjani' noma kungani kwesinye isikhathi umculo uzoma emdlalweni womhlaba wonke wezihlalo zomculo. Iholo elijwayelekile eChina lingama- $ 1500, izwe lingumthumeli wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, kodwa ongenisa amazwe ngobuningi kunabo bonke…
Izindaba zokuthi i-inflation yase-UK inyukele ku-5.2% azimangazanga ngokuphelele ezimakethe namhlanje ekuseni. Lokhu kufana nokurekhoda okuphezulu ngoSepthemba, mhlawumbe intengo abenzi bezinqubomgomo zeBhange laseNgilandi abazimisele ukuyikhokha ukuze kuliwe nosongo lokunye ukonakala komnotho. Izintengo zabathengi zikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-5.2 kusukela onyakeni owedlule, uma kuqhathaniswa no-4.5% ngo-Agasti, iHhovisi Lezibalo Zikazwelonke selivezile. Lesi sibalo sihambisane nedatha ngoSepthemba 2008, okuyisibalo esiphakeme kakhulu selokhu amarekhodi aqhathanisekayo aqala ngonyaka we-1997.
Umlandeli wezibikezelo ezingama-35 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News bekungamaphesenti angu-4.9. UMbusi weBhange laseNgilandi uMervyn King uthe ekuqaleni kwale nyanga ukuthi ukukhula kwentengo yabathengi cishe kuzonyuka ngoSepthemba futhi kwehle kakhulu “ngo-2012. idiphu komnotho isesikhwameni futhi ungakusa lokho ebhange ”.
Khonamanjalo isilinganiso seFrance se-Aaa sisabhekwe ngabomvu futhi uSarkozy mancane amathuba okuthi akwazi ukuphinda anake kakhulu ubunzima besimo sabo sodwa ngokuba nomunye umhlangano uminyene phakathi kwalezi ezimbili ezihleliwe ezilandelayo. Amabhange amakhulu aseFrance angaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu, amasheya amabhange aseFrance aqhubekile nokuwohloka ezinsukwini ezine ezedlule zokuhweba, iBNP Paribas, enkulu kunazo zonke kubabolekisi besizwe, yehla ngaphezulu kwamaphesenti ayi-17 kwathi iSociete Generale yehla cishe ngamaphesenti ayi-16.9 phakathi kokukhathazeka okukhulu uzokwehliselwa phansi kanye nohulumeni.
Ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali baseJalimane kwehlele ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu ku-approx. iminyaka emithathu njengoba inkinga yezikweletu zaseYurophu isongela ukutheleleka emabhange nokunqanda ukukhula komnotho. IZEW Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim ithe inkomba yayo yabatshali zimali nabahlaziyi, ehlose ukubikezela intuthuko ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngaphambi kwesikhathi, yehlile ukukhipha u-48.3 kusuka ku-43.3 ngo-Septhemba, okuyisibalo esiphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoNovemba 2008. Abezomnotho babelindele ukwehla kususwe ama-45, ngokuya ngomqondo olinganiselwe wama-39 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News.
Markets
INikkei ivale u-1.55%, i-Hang Seng yavala u-4.23% kwathi i-CSI yavala u-2.8%. I-ASX 200 ivale u-2.07%. Imakethe yayo enkulu, iChina, ithole izibalo ezingaphansi kwesibalo sokukhula esasibikezelwe. Ama-bourses aseYurophu aphansi cishe ngo-1% ebhodini, i-STOXX yehle ngo-1.01%, i-FTSE yehle ngo-0.95%, i-CAC yehla ngo-1.71% kwathi i-DAX manje yehla ngo-0.42%. Ikusasa lokulingana lenkomba ye-SPX okwamanje liphansi ngo-0.50%. I-Brent crude iphansi ngama- $ 57 emgqonyeni.
zezimali
I-euro yaba buthakathaka kwezentengiselwano e-Asia / Pacific nasesikhathini saseLondon ngenxa yesimo sikaMoody sokuthi izinga eliphezulu lokuthenga ngesikweletu eFrance linengcindezi, okunezela ekukhathazekeni ukuthi abaholi baseYurophu bazokuthola kunzima ukuxazulula inkinga yesikweletu sesifunda. Imali yehle usuku lwesibili uma iqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen njengoba isilayidi esivuselelwe esitokisini saseYurophu siqhubeka. I-yen nedola laqina uma liqhathaniswa nozakwabo abakhulu njengoba ukuqagela komaye waseYurophu kuzonciphisa ukukhula komhlaba kukhuthaze isifiso sabatshalizimali ngezimali nezimpahla eziphephile. Izimali zase-Asia zibuthaka, ziholwa yi-Malaysian ringgit kanye ne-peso yasePhilippines ngenxa yombiko wase-China okhombisa ukukhula komnotho kwehle kwa-China kweza ezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emibili.
Ukukhishwa Kwemininingwane Yezomnotho
13:30 US - PPI Septhemba
14:00 US - TIC Kugeleza Agasti
15:00 US - NAHB Imakethe Yezindlu Inkomba Ngo-Okthoba
Kosomnotho abahlolisiswe yiBloomberg, ukuvumelana okuphakathi kwePPI kwenyanga bekuku-0.20% kusuka kwinani langaphambilini lika-0.00%. Ngonyaka lokhu kuma kuma-6.40% kusuka ku-6.50% phambilini. I-PPI ngaphandle kokudla namandla kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-0.10%, inyanga nenyanga nonyaka ngonyaka lokhu kwabikezelwa ukuthi kuzoba yi-2.40%, okuhlala kungashintshiwe kusuka ekukhishweni kwangaphambilini. I-NAHB iyinkomba esuselwa kusampula labakhi bezindlu abamele ukuthengiswa kwekhaya kanye nokulindelwa kwesakhiwo esizayo. Ucwaningo olwenziwa eBloomberg lwabahlaziyi lwaqagela i-15 kusuka kwinyanga edlule ye-14.
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Lapho Amaphuzu Omunwe
Okthoba 18 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-12207 • 1 Comment ku Lapho Amaphuzu Omunwe
Abahlaziyi bezimakethe nabahlaziyi ababhalela ukuthandwa kwe-FT, Bloomberg neReuters bangafuna ukuzama ukubhala indaba yezomnotho maqondana nemininingwane ebuthakathaka ngaphandle kokuthi 'basole' iYurophu .. ”O, ngibona umnotho waseChina usukhule ngezinga elincane kakhulu iminyaka emibili, lokho kuzoba yilabo bantu baseYurophu abakhathazekile kanye nenkinga yabo yasebhange futhi .. ”lokhu kuyinsolo yakamuva.
Umnotho waseChina ukhule ngamaphesenti ayi-9.1 kuphela kwikota yesithathu uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka owedlule, okuyisivinini esiphansi kunazo zonke kusukela ngo-2009, okwenza amanani ezimpahla aphansi. Inzuzo ibingaphansi kwesilinganiso esiphakathi kwamaphesenti ayi-9.3 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News labacwaningi bezomnotho abangama-22 futhi ilandele ukwanda ngamaphesenti ayi-9.5 ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule. Ihhovisi lezibalo likhiphe imininingwane eBeijing ekuqaleni kwanamuhla. Inkomba ye-stockmark yase-Asia yehle cishe ngamaphesenti angu-2.4 ngemuva kokukhula kweChina kunqunyelwe isikweletu esiqinile nokufunwa okuthe xaxa okuvela eYurophu nase-USA. Ukwehla kwejubane lokwanda kweChina, okuhlala kuze kube kahlanu kunokwaseMelika, kungasiza uNdunankulu uWen Jiabao ukunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali njengamanje ngaphezu kwenhloso kahulumeni.
Kungenzeka yini ukuthi ukukhula kweChina akufani nokwendawo yethu eyanda njalo futhi akukwazi ukweqa imithetho ye-physics noma yezomnotho? Emnothweni wethu osizakalayo nowomhlaba wonke kwesinye isikhathi umculo kufanele ume. Ziphi izimakethe ezintsha zaseChina zezimpahla nezinsizakalo zabo? Ngenkathi ngokungangabazeki iyindawo yamandla kwezomnotho inzuzo enkulu abayinikeza abaseNtshonalanga ukuthengwa okungapheli kwempahla eshibhile ngenxa yomsebenzi oshibhile nosetshenziswayo.
Uma i-Apple ingakhokhi amaholo amaShayina ukukhiqiza nokuba yisizinda sokusatshalaliswa kwemikhiqizo yabo, kepha isafuna ukugcina inqwaba yemali engu- $ 75 billion, izindleko ze-iPad zizokhuphuka zisuka ku- £ 500 ziye ku- £ 2000. Ukuze 'bathuthukise' ukukhiqizwa kwabo iChina idinga izinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nophethiloli ngamanani amakhulu, kukhuphule ngqo izindleko zezinsizakusebenza ezilinganiselwe zabo bonke. Amandla ezomnotho kungenzeka kepha isimangaliso akusona futhi empeleni akuyona 'i-rocket science' ukuthola ukuthi 'bakwenza kanjani' noma kungani kwesinye isikhathi umculo uzoma emdlalweni womhlaba wonke wezihlalo zomculo. Iholo elijwayelekile eChina lingama- $ 1500, izwe lingumthumeli wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, kodwa ongenisa amazwe ngobuningi kunabo bonke…
Izindaba zokuthi i-inflation yase-UK inyukele ku-5.2% azimangazanga ngokuphelele ezimakethe namhlanje ekuseni. Lokhu kufana nokurekhoda okuphezulu ngoSepthemba, mhlawumbe intengo abenzi bezinqubomgomo zeBhange laseNgilandi abazimisele ukuyikhokha ukuze kuliwe nosongo lokunye ukonakala komnotho. Izintengo zabathengi zikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-5.2 kusukela onyakeni owedlule, uma kuqhathaniswa no-4.5% ngo-Agasti, iHhovisi Lezibalo Zikazwelonke selivezile. Lesi sibalo sihambisane nedatha ngoSepthemba 2008, okuyisibalo esiphakeme kakhulu selokhu amarekhodi aqhathanisekayo aqala ngonyaka we-1997.
Umlandeli wezibikezelo ezingama-35 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News bekungamaphesenti angu-4.9. UMbusi weBhange laseNgilandi uMervyn King uthe ekuqaleni kwale nyanga ukuthi ukukhula kwentengo yabathengi cishe kuzonyuka ngoSepthemba futhi kwehle kakhulu “ngo-2012. idiphu komnotho isesikhwameni futhi ungakusa lokho ebhange ”.
Khonamanjalo isilinganiso seFrance se-Aaa sisabhekwe ngabomvu futhi uSarkozy mancane amathuba okuthi akwazi ukuphinda anake kakhulu ubunzima besimo sabo sodwa ngokuba nomunye umhlangano uminyene phakathi kwalezi ezimbili ezihleliwe ezilandelayo. Amabhange amakhulu aseFrance angaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu, amasheya amabhange aseFrance aqhubekile nokuwohloka ezinsukwini ezine ezedlule zokuhweba, iBNP Paribas, enkulu kunazo zonke kubabolekisi besizwe, yehla ngaphezulu kwamaphesenti ayi-17 kwathi iSociete Generale yehla cishe ngamaphesenti ayi-16.9 phakathi kokukhathazeka okukhulu uzokwehliselwa phansi kanye nohulumeni.
Ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali baseJalimane kwehlele ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu ku-approx. iminyaka emithathu njengoba inkinga yezikweletu zaseYurophu isongela ukutheleleka emabhange nokunqanda ukukhula komnotho. IZEW Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim ithe inkomba yayo yabatshali zimali nabahlaziyi, ehlose ukubikezela intuthuko ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngaphambi kwesikhathi, yehlile ukukhipha u-48.3 kusuka ku-43.3 ngo-Septhemba, okuyisibalo esiphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoNovemba 2008. Abezomnotho babelindele ukwehla kususwe ama-45, ngokuya ngomqondo olinganiselwe wama-39 ocwaningweni lweBloomberg News.
Markets
INikkei ivale u-1.55%, i-Hang Seng yavala u-4.23% kwathi i-CSI yavala u-2.8%. I-ASX 200 ivale u-2.07%. Imakethe yayo enkulu, iChina, ithole izibalo ezingaphansi kwesibalo sokukhula esasibikezelwe. Ama-bourses aseYurophu aphansi cishe ngo-1% ebhodini, i-STOXX yehle ngo-1.01%, i-FTSE yehle ngo-0.95%, i-CAC yehla ngo-1.71% kwathi i-DAX manje yehla ngo-0.42%. Ikusasa lokulingana lenkomba ye-SPX okwamanje liphansi ngo-0.50%. I-Brent crude iphansi ngama- $ 57 emgqonyeni.
zezimali
I-euro yaba buthakathaka kwezentengiselwano e-Asia / Pacific nasesikhathini saseLondon ngenxa yesimo sikaMoody sokuthi izinga eliphezulu lokuthenga ngesikweletu eFrance linengcindezi, okunezela ekukhathazekeni ukuthi abaholi baseYurophu bazokuthola kunzima ukuxazulula inkinga yesikweletu sesifunda. Imali yehle usuku lwesibili uma iqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen njengoba isilayidi esivuselelwe esitokisini saseYurophu siqhubeka. I-yen nedola laqina uma liqhathaniswa nozakwabo abakhulu njengoba ukuqagela komaye waseYurophu kuzonciphisa ukukhula komhlaba kukhuthaze isifiso sabatshalizimali ngezimali nezimpahla eziphephile. Izimali zase-Asia zibuthaka, ziholwa yi-Malaysian ringgit kanye ne-peso yasePhilippines ngenxa yombiko wase-China okhombisa ukukhula komnotho kwehle kwa-China kweza ezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emibili.
Ukukhishwa Kwemininingwane Yezomnotho
13:30 US - PPI Septhemba
14:00 US - TIC Kugeleza Agasti
15:00 US - NAHB Imakethe Yezindlu Inkomba Ngo-Okthoba
Kosomnotho abahlolisiswe yiBloomberg, ukuvumelana okuphakathi kwePPI kwenyanga bekuku-0.20% kusuka kwinani langaphambilini lika-0.00%. Ngonyaka lokhu kuma kuma-6.40% kusuka ku-6.50% phambilini. I-PPI ngaphandle kokudla namandla kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-0.10%, inyanga nenyanga nonyaka ngonyaka lokhu kwabikezelwa ukuthi kuzoba yi-2.40%, okuhlala kungashintshiwe kusuka ekukhishweni kwangaphambilini. I-NAHB iyinkomba esuselwa kusampula labakhi bezindlu abamele ukuthengiswa kwekhaya kanye nokulindelwa kwesakhiwo esizayo. Ucwaningo olwenziwa eBloomberg lwabahlaziyi lwaqagela i-15 kusuka kwinyanga edlule ye-14.
chinaisikweletu se-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambili
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