I-SNAPSHOT YESIKHATHI SAMASONTO 30 / 10-03 / 11 | Izinqumo zenani lenzalo ezisemqoka ezivela ku-BoE ne-FOMC, kuhlanganiswe nedatha yemisebenzi yeNFP, zinikeza okuvelele kusonto lezindaba lekhalenda lezomnotho elikhulu
Iviki elizayo yisonto elimatasatasa kakhulu lokukhishwa kwezindaba okunomthelela omkhulu, okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “idatha eqinile”. Imicimbi evelele izinqumo zezinga lenzalo ezivela e-UK nase-USA kanye nombiko wemisebenzi yanyanga zonke we-NFP ovamile wase-USA, oshicilelwa ngoLwesihlanu lokuqala lwenyanga ngayinye. Idatha ye-CPI yaseJalimane iphinde yembulwe, imibiko yenqubomgomo ye-Bank of Japan ehlukahlukene, i-EZ kanye ne-Canadian GDP, ukuzethemba kwabathengi base-USA, ukungasebenzi kwe-NZ kanye neJalimane, kanye nokufundwa okuhlukahlukene kwe-PMI ne-ISM.
Ibhange eliphakathi lase-UK libikezela ukuthi lizomemezela ukukhuphuka kwezinga lesisekelo, okokuqala ngqa cishe eminyakeni eyishumi, lapho lihlangana ngoLwesine; kusuka ku-0.24% kuya ku-0.5%. Nakuba isibikezelo se-FOMC, uma "izinhloko ze-Feds" ziphetha umhlangano ngoLwesithathu, zixutshwe; abahlaziyi abaningi manje babikezela ukuthi alukho ushintsho, kusukela ku-1.25% yamanje yenzalo eyinhloko ye-Fed. Abadayisi be-FX badinga ukuqapha njengoba kokubili ukukhishwa kwedatha kungase kuthinte inani le-sterling nedola laseMelika, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi zithini izinqumo zenani lenzalo.
NgoLwesihlanu wokuqala enyangeni umbiko wemisebenzi ye-NFP yendabuko, okubikwa ukuthi ihle yaba ngu-33k ngoSepthemba, okwathintwa isizini yesiphepho e-USA, kuphinde kwahlehla ku-330k yemisebenzi edalwe ngo-Okthoba. Kodwa-ke, ukubuyiselwa kancane kwemisebenzi kungase kubonise ezinye izinkinga zomnotho ezibanzi emnothweni wase-USA.
On Sunday kusihlwa Izibalo zezitolo zase-Japan ziqala ukulethwa kwezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho kwesonto, okulindelekile wukuthuthukiswa kwe-MoM ku--1.7% yesibalo esinyatheliswe ngo-August. Imininingwane yediphozithi ebonakalayo evela kwabaphathi bamabhange aseSwitzerland ishicilelwa ngokwesiko njalo ngoMsombuluko ukuqala idatha yamasonto onke yaseYurophu, ulwazi olungavame ukuhambisa inani le-Swissie, uma izinga lediphozi lishintsha kakhulu isonto nesonto. Idatha yabathengi base-UK ngesikweletu kanye nekhredithi evikelekile ngokukhethekile ezindaweni zokuhlala kuyembulwa, okungase kubaluleke kakhulu uma kubhekwa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi ezweni, ngokusobala kwehlile muva nje. E-Eurozone ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene kokuzethemba kuzohanjiswa, kamuva ntambama i-CPI yaseJalimane izokwambulwa, isibikezelo sokuthi izohlala ingashintshile ku-1.8%. Kusihlwa iJapan ishicilela izinga layo labantu abangasebenzi, njengamanje liku-2.8%, izinga lokukhiqizwa kwezimboni kanye nezibalo zezindleko zemizi nazo ziyavezwa.
NgoLwesibili iyaqhubeka njengoba uMsombuluko uphela, ngedatha yaseJapan enomthelela omkhulu; kuzokwethulwa umbiko wenqubomgomo yokubukeka kwe-BOJ, njengoba kuzoba nezinga lebhalansi yenqubomgomo yebhange elikhulu. Ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi laseNew Zealand kanye nedatha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya evela e-Australia ishicilelwe ngokulandelana okusheshayo, ukufundwa okubili kokuqiniseka kukhishwa mayelana nomnotho wase-UK; ukufunda ukuzethemba kwabathengi be-GfK kanye ne-Lloyds business barometer. Kamuva ekuseni, i-BOJ's Kuroda izobamba isithangami sabezindaba sidingida imininingwane yenqubomgomo yezimali eshicilelwe ngaphambili. Ama-PMI aseShayina akhiqizayo nangawakhiqizi ashicilelwa ekuseni kakhulu, njengaseJapan: idatha yokukhiqiza izimoto, ukuqaliswa kwezindlu, ama-oda okwakhiwa kanye nokuzethemba kwamabhizinisi amancane. Kuzodalulwa izibalo zakamuva ze-Eurozone zaseFrance kanye nezakamuva ze-GDP zanyanga zonke, i-France kulindeleke ukuthi igcine isibalo sokukhula esingu-2.1% se-Q3 i-YoY, kuyilapho i-Eurozone kulindeleke ukuthi iphrinte ukwenyuka kwe-Q2.3 YoY ngo-3%. I-Eurozone CPI ibikezelwa ukuthi izohlala ingashintshile, kusukela kusilinganiso sayo samanje esingu-1.5% ngonyaka. I-GDP yase-Canada ibikezelwa ukuthi izohlala (noma isondele), izinga lamanje lokukhula le-YoY elingu-3.8%. Idatha yentengo yendlu ye-Case Shiller yase-USA ishicilelwe ngoLwesibili, ushintsho lwamanje lwentengo yedolobha elikhulu elingu-5.8% YoY, lubikezelwa ukuthi luzogcinwa. Ukuthembela kwabathengi e-USA ngo-Okthoba kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngokulingene, kuye ku-120 kusuka ku-119.8. I-raft yedatha yase-Australasia ivala usuku; Izinga lokungasebenzi laseNew Zealand kanye nokusebenza kwe-AiG yase-Australia kwezokukhiqiza, yizona zincwadi eziphuma phambili.
NgoLwesithathu kuqala ngokushicilelwa kwe-PMI yaseChina yokukhiqiza i-Caixan, okwamanje eku-51 ngoSepthemba, ukufundwa kungaphezu nje komugqa wama-50, ohlukanisa ukukhula nokufinyezwa. Izindaba ezibalulekile zaseYurophu ziqala ngesibalo sokukhiqiza sase-UK PMI, okwamanje esiku-55.9. Ama-PMIs Okukhiqiza nawo ashicilelwa eCanada nase-USA, njengokufundwa kwe-ISM okuningana kwe-USA. I-FOMC yase-USA izodalula isinqumo sayo sakamuva mayelana nezinga lenzalo, okwamanje liku-1.25%, osomnotho abaningi babonakala behlukene phakathi mayelana nokuthi kungenzeka ukwenyukela ku-1.5%.
NgoLwesine iqala ngokugunyaza ukwakha kanye nedatha yebhalansi yokuhweba evela e-Australia, ukufunda ukuzethemba kwabathengi baseJapan nakho kuyavezwa. Ukuthengiswa kwezitolo zase-Swiss kanye nokufundwa kwenkomba yakamuva yokuzethemba nakho kuyashicilelwa, ngemuva kwalokho izinombolo zakamuva ezibalulekile zaseJalimane zokungasebenzi zilethwa, futhi okulindelekile ukuthi izinga lesihloko lihlale lingashintshile ku-5.6%. I-PMI yakamuva yokwakha yase-UK izokwembulwa, isibikezelo sokuthi izofika ithuthukiswe kancane ukusuka kusibalo esifinyeziwe esingu-48.1 esibhaliselwe uSepthemba. Ibhange elimaphakathi lase-UK, iBhange LaseNgilandi, libikezela ukuthi lizokhuphula izinga lenzalo eliyisisekelo liye ku-0.5%, lisuka kuleveli yalo yamanje engu-0.25%. I-BoE izophinde ishicilele umbiko wayo wakamuva wokwehla kwamandla emali ukuze uhambisane nesinqumo sezinga eliphakathi kwamazwe, ukudambisa ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisizathu esiyinhloko sokunyuka kwamazinga, ngokungafani nanoma yimaphi amandla ayisisekelo emnothweni wase-UK. Izimangalo zamasonto onke zokungabi namsebenzi nezinombolo zezicelo eziqhubekayo ezivela e-USA ziyavezwa, phakathi “nesonto le-NFP”, le datha ivamise ukuba nomthelela omkhulu.
Friday iqala ngedatha yokuthengisa yase-Australia, kanye ne-China ye-Caixan PMIs yezinsizakalo kanye nenhlanganisela, i-Markit PMIs yezinsizakalo zase-UK kanye nenhlanganisela nayo ishicilelwe njengesibalo esisemthethweni sase-UK sokugodla. Noma yikuphi ukwehlukana okubalulekile, kusukela ku-$554m eqoshwe ngoSepthemba, kungaba nomthelela enanini le-sterling. Izinga lokungasebenzi eCanada lango-Okthoba libikezelwa ukuthi lizohlala lingashintshile ku-6.2%. Isibalo sanyanga zonke esiholela abantu abangasibo amapulazi, i-NFP, kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyise umfutho omkhulu esiphephweni -33k kanye nesiphepho esithinteke esibaloni sokudalwa kwamathuba emisebenzi ngoSepthemba. Isibikezelo esokukhula kwemisebenzi nge-circa 330k ngo-Okthoba. Izinga labangasebenzi, amahora asetshenziwe kanye nedatha yokukhula kwamaholo nayo izoshicilelwa, ihambisane nokufundwa kwe-NFP okubalulekile. Ukufundwa okungezona ukukhiqiza kwe-ISM kuzovezwa, okubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla ku-58, kusukela ku-59.8 ebhaliswe ngo-Okthoba. Imali eshodayo yebhalansi yezohwebo yanyanga zonke yase-USA ngoSepthemba, kubikezelwa ukuthi izokwehla ifinyelele ku-$44.0, isuka ku-$42.4.
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