ISIKHUMBUZO SESIKOLO SAMASONTO 23 / 10-27 / 10 | Isinqumo sezinga le-ECB, ukwehliswa kokuthengwa kwamabhondi okungaba khona kanye nesibalo sakamuva se-USA GDP, sizogxila kakhulu kuleli sonto elizayo
Iviki elizayo liyisonto elimatasatasa kakhulu lokukhishwa kwedatha enomthelela omkhulu, i-CPI yase-Australia, njengamanje eku-1.9%, izocutshungulwa, njengoba amahemuhemu ephikelela ukuthi ukulungiswa kwezinga lenzalo kungenzeka uma (futhi nini) izinga le-CPI lonyaka lidlula elase livunyelwe ngokuvamile. okuhloswe yibhange elikhulu okungu-2% ngokuqhubekayo. Kunohide lwama-Markit PMIs akhishelwe ukuhola umnotho we-Eurozone kanye ne-USA ngoLwesibili, lawa ahamba phambili kunokuba amamethrikhi asalele, ama-PMI kufanele abhekwe ngokucophelela noma yiziphi izimpawu zobuthakathaka bomnotho obucashile.
Izinqumo ezimbili ezibucayi kakhulu zezinga lenzalo yasebhange zimenyezelwa kuleli sonto; I-ECB ngesinye isikhathi kuyodingeka isuke ku-ZIRP (inqubomgomo yezinga lenzalo eyizero), kuyilapho kulindelwe isimemezelo mayelana nokuqalwa kwangempela kohlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla. Uma yehliswa isuka ku-€60b, iye ku-€30b ehlongozwayo, khona-ke kunengqondo ukulindela ukuthi i-euro isabele. IBhange LaseCanada liphinde lenze isinqumo sezinga lenzalo, okwamanje liku-1%, ibhange eliphakathi lisanda kumangaza izimakethe ngokunyuka kwezinga, ngakho-ke noma yiluphi olunye ushintsho lubhekwa njengento engenakwenzeka.
I-CPI yaseJapan izobhekisiswa kahle, njengoba sekusondele ukhetho olujwayelekile eJapan, yonke imininingwane yaseJapan ezayo izoqashwa ngeso lokhozi ezinsukwini namaviki azayo. Umcimbi wokugcina wezindaba onomthelela omkhulu weviki uthinta isibalo sakamuva se-GDP yase-USA ye-Q3, izinga lonyaka okwamanje lingu-3.1%, ukwehla kwafika ku-2.1% okubikezelwe osomnotho. Ukwehliswa okunjalo kungase kuphazamise izinkolelo kubatshalizimali abaningi nabahlaziyi, ukuthi umnotho wase-USA uqine ngokwanele ukumelana nochungechunge lokunyuka kwezinga elijwayelekile, kusukela ngoDisemba kanye nokuqiniswa kwenani, ukuze kwehliswe ishidi lebhalansi le-Fed lika-$4.5 trillion.
Isibalo sakamuva se-GDP sase-UK sizophinde sembulwe, okwamanje ku-1.5% ngonyaka, okulindelekile ukuthi isibalo se-Q3 sifike ku-0.3%, okuzothatha unyaka kuze kube manje ukukhula ku-0.8%. Uma isibalo se-Q3 sigeja izibikezelo, khona-ke abahlaziyi bangase banqume ngokushesha ukuthi unyaka kuze kube manje isibalo esingu-1% singase siphuthelwe, futhi njengoba i-Brexit isabambezeleka njengodaba olukhulu, noma yikuphi ukuphuthelwa okubalulekile kuzothathwa ngokushesha ngabatshalizimali abasezingeni eliphezulu.
UMsombuluko iyisethulo esithulile sezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho lesonto, kusukela e-Asia China amanani ezakhiwo kaSepthemba akhululwa, inkomba ehamba phambili yaseJapan, inkomba eqondane kanye nokuthengiswa kwesitolo kubikwa. Amadiphozithi e-Swiss sight ahlala eshicilelwa ngoMsombuluko futhi angaba nomthelela ezimakethe, uma encishisiwe kakhulu noma enyuswa. Isibalo sesikweletu sikahulumeni we-Eurozone v GDP sishicilelwe ngo-2016, ku-89.2% okwamanje sishiya cishe ama-trillion angu-1.7 wokuthenga impahla/uhlelo lokunciphisa inani i-ECB eluphethe eminyakeni yamuva nje. Ukufundwa kokuqiniseka kwabathengi be-Eurozone ngo-Okthoba kuzokhishwa, ku--1.2% ngoSepthemba kulindeleke ukuba ngcono. Kushicilelwe izinhlolovo ezahlukene zase-UK CBI; ama-oda, ithemba kanye nokufundwa kwentengo yokuthengisa kuzolethwa.
NgoLwesibili abantu abanamanani entengo yokungenisa yaseJalimane, okwamanje akhuphuka ngo-2.1% YoY, kwembulwa i-PMI yokukhiqiza i-Nikkei yaseJapane; okwamanje iku-52.9 ngoSepthemba, kuyilapho idatha yokuthengiswa kwesuphamakethe nayo ishicilelwe e-Japan. I-Markit Economics izoshicilela i-raft ye-PMIs ye-Eurozone; ukukhiqiza, izinsizakalo, ukufundwa okuyinhlanganisela kwe: Germany, France kanye ne-Eurozone. Inhlolovo yokubolekwa kwemali yasebhange ye-ECB ishicilelwe, njengoba kunjalo nokufundwa kwesikweletu sikahulumeni samanje kanye nokushoda. Uchungechunge lwama-Markit PMIs ase-USA nawo ashicilelwe njengoba kuyinkomba yokukhiqiza yaseRichmond Fed yango-Okthoba; kulindeleke ukuthi yehle iye ku-16, isuke ku-19.
NgoLwesithathu iqala usuku ngokugxila kudatha yase-Australia, njengoba isibalo sakamuva se-CPI sishicilelwa; isibikezelo sizohlala ku-1.9% YOY. Ukufundwa kwe-IFO yaseJalimane kuzolethwa, lesi simo sezulu sebhizinisi, okulindelwe kanye nokufundwa kwesimo sezulu samanje kuthathwa kakhulu, njengoba ukufundwa kwemizwelo le miphumela ephakathi nendawo iqashwe ngokucophelela ngabatshalizimali ngezimpawu zobuthakathaka emnothweni omkhulu waseYurophu. I-UK izobe icutshungulwa ngokucophelela njengoba kuvezwa isibalo sakamuva se-GDP, okwamanje ku-1.5% YoY kukhona okulindelekile kunoma yiluphi ushintsho. Njengoba ukunaka kushintshela e-USA, ukukhula kwe-oda lezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside kulindeleke ukuthi kufike ku-0.6% ngoSepthemba, ukwehla kusuka ku-2% okurekhodwe ngo-August. Ibhange eliphakathi laseCanada lizomemezela isinqumo senzalo yalo, okwamanje ku-1.0%, akukho okulindelekile ukuba kube noshintsho, ibhange lizophinde lilethe umbiko walo wenqubomgomo yezimali, futhi kamuva ntambama umbusi uPoloz uzobamba umhlangano nabezindaba, echaza isizathu isinqumo senqubomgomo kanye nezinga lenzalo. Idatha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya yase-USA ibikezelwa ukuthi izohlala ingashintshile, naphezu kokulungiswa kwesizini. Ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene komnotho waseNew Zealand kuzokhishwa; ibhalansi yohwebo, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kanye nempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle.
NgoLwesine iqala ngezintengo zakamuva zokungenisa nokuthekelisa zase-Australia, kugxilwe bese kuphendukela e-Europe, njengoba ukufundwa kwakamuva kwe-GfK yaseJalimane ukuzethemba kushicilelwa, kulandelwa isinqumo sezinga lenzalo le-ECB, okwamanje liku-0.00%. Imininingwane nganoma yikuphi ukuncishiswa kwe-taper yesikimu sokuthengwa kwempahla, okwamanje esebenza ngo-€60b ngenyanga, izovezwa. Isibalo sebhalansi yezohwebo ethuthukisiwe yase-USA sizokhishwa, ngaso sonke isikhathi sishoda, okulindelekile ukukhuphukela ku-$64.1b ngoSepthemba. Ukuthengiswa kwezindlu okusalindile e-USA I-YoY kubikezelwa ukuthi izoba ngcono ngaphezu kokufundwa kokugcina okungu -3.1% YoY. Kusihlwa isibalo sakamuva se-CPI sase-Japan sizolethwa, okwamanje singu-0.7% kunokuvumelana okuncane okulindeleke ukuba kube noshintsho.
Friday iqala ngokudayiswa kwezitolo zaseJalimane, bese silinda kuze kube emini ukuze sithole noma yiziphi izindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu ngendlela yokufundwa kwakamuva kwe-GDP yase-USA yaminyaka yonke, okubikezelwa ukuthi kuzoncipha kuye ku-2.5% engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2017, isuka ku-3.1%. Imininingwane ehlukahlukene yokusetshenziswa kwabathengi base-USA izovezwa, futhi isonto liphetha ngokushicilelwa kwanyanga zonke okuphelele kwezifundo ezihlonishwayo zemizwa ezivela eNyuvesi yaseMichigan, okuhlanganisa: ukuzethemba, izimo zamanje kanye nokufundwa okulindelwe.
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