ISIKHUNGO SE-MARKET WEEKLY 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Ingabe inombolo ephansi ngokweqile yeNFP ingamangaza izimakethe?
Yileso sikhathi senyanga futhi; lapho inombolo ye-NFP ishicilelwa ngoLwesihlanu lokuqala lwenyanga entsha. Kubathengisi abasafufusa bangase bazibuze ukuthi yini le ngxabano engaka, nokho, abahwebi ababehileleke ezimakethe ngesikhathi se-Great Recession, lapho izinombolo ze-NFP zingabonisa ukulahlekelwa kwemisebenzi engaphezu kuka-700k ngenyanga eyodwa, bayohlala bebeka isitolo esihle emakethe. inombolo. Sekunesikhathi sibona ukushaqeka kwedatha ye-NFP, eyanele ukuhambisa izimakethe ze-equity yase-USA, noma inani ledola, kodwa ngoLwesihlanu isibikezelo semisebenzi engu-50k kuphela ezodaleka ngoSepthemba, okumaka lokhu. NgoLwesihlanu iphume njengomcimbi wokuqapha izikhundla ngokucophelela.
Eminye imicimbi yomthelela ephezulu evelele yeviki elizayo ihlanganisa: i-RBA ebeka inani lenzalo lase-Australia, ukufundwa kwe-ISM kwe-USA kanye nokufundwa kwe-Markit PMI kwawo wonke amazwe ahamba phambili aseYurophu nase-USA. I-Swiss CPI ishicilelwe, kanye nedatha yakamuva yaseCanada yokungasebenzi kanye nedatha yokuqashwa.
Sunday iqala ngenkomba yokukhiqiza ye-AiG yase-Australia, okwamanje iku-59.8 ngo-August kuphela ushintsho oluphakeme olusesilinganisweni esibikezelwe. Ngemuva kwalokho sizothola idatha ye-Japanese Tankan, egqama kakhulu kuzoba yinkomba yabakhiqizi abakhulu nabangebona abakhiqizi kanye nokufundwa kwemibono. Uchungechunge lokufundwayo konke kubikezelwa ukuveza ukuthuthuka okuthobekile futhi njengoba uhulumeni wamanje waseJapan uchithiwe, njengoba undunankulu u-Abe ebize ukhetho olusheshayo, imininingwane yezomnotho yaseJapan kungenzeka ibhekisiswe emasontweni azayo, maqondana nomthelela wayo ku-yen. Kuzoshicilelwa nokudayiswa kwezimoto zaseJapan kanye ne-Nikkei PMI yokukhiqiza.
As Izimakethe zaseYurophu zivulwa ngoMsombuluko Izibalo zokudayisa zaseSwitzerland zizoshicilelwa, njengoba zehle ngo--0.7% ngo-August, ukuthuthukiswa kuzobhekwa. I-Swiss SVME PMI kaSepthemba nayo izoshicilelwa, ngo-61.2 ngo-Agasti, okulindelekile ukuthi ukufundwa kugcinwe. Ama-PMI okukhiqiza eFrance, eJalimane nase-Italy azolethwa nguMarkit, njengoba kuzoba ukufundwa okuhlangene kokukhiqizwa kwe-Eurozone, ngo-60.6 ngo-Agasti lesi sibalo kulindeleke ukuthi sigcinwe, uma singathuthukisiwe. I-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-UK izokhishwa, okuthakaselwa kakhulu uma kubhekwa ukuthi imfundiso yezomnotho eyi-orthodox iphakamisa ukuthi iphawundi elibuthakathaka, elitholakala kumakota amabili okuqala ka-2017, bekufanele liholele ekuthuthukisweni kokukhiqiza / ukuthekelisa e-UK Canada's Markit PMI ishicilelwe ngo. NgoMsombuluko, njengochungechunge lokufundwa kwe-ISM e-USA, lokhu kufundwa kwe-ISM kwaziswa kakhulu e-USA kune-PMI ka-Markit, ukufundwa okubalulekile okokukhiqiza, okulindeleke ukuthi kufike ku-57.8, kwehle kusuka ku-58.8 ngo-Agasti. Izindleko zokwakha e-USA kubikezelwa ukuthi zizokhuphuka ngo-Agasti ziye ku-0.5% ukukhula, zisuka ekwindla ngo-0.6% ngoJulayi.
NgoLwesibili iqala ngedatha yanyanga zonke yaseNew Zealand ngezintengo zendali zobisi, okuhlanganisa namandla obisi. Imikhiqizo yobisi iwukuthunyelwa okukhulu kwe-NZ kuya e-Asia, kanti i-NZ isanda kuba nephalamende elilengayo okhethweni lukazwelonke kanye nesinqumo sokugcina izinga lenzalo ku-1.75%, ukuhambisana kwedatha kuzobhekwa. Ibhange elimaphakathi lase-Australia (i-RBA) lizodalula isinqumo salo ngamanani enzalo, okubikezelwe ukuthi azohlala angashintshile ku-1.5%. Ukufunda ukuzethemba kwabathengi baseJapan kuzocutshungulwa eduze, kusondele kakhulu kundunankulu u-Abe ebiza ukhetho olusheshayo, ukugcinwa kokuthenjwa kubaluleke kakhulu. I-PMI yokwakha yase-UK izonyatheliswa, ngo-51.1 ngo-Agasti yembula ukukhula, noma kunjalo, lokhu bekungahambisani nedatha ye-ONS yase-UK. Ingabe abakhi base-UK babambe iqhaza kumaphrojekthi, ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kwe-Brexit? Kusihlwa kuzoshicilelwa ukufundwa kwedatha okuhlukahlukene okuphathelene ne-Australia ne-New Zealand, okugqama kakhulu ukusebenza kwenkomba yesevisi ye-AiG.
NgoLwesithathu ofakazi bezinkonzo zaseJapan kanye nama-PMI ayinhlanganisela ashicilelwe, njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivula inqwaba yama-PMI ahlobene neYurophu kushicilelwa, ukukhiqizwa, izinsizakalo nezinhlanganisela zeFrance, i-Italy, iJalimane, i-Eurozone kanye ne-UK ziyashicilelwa. Ama-UK ngokungangabazeki abukwa kakhulu, uma kubhekwa isimo seBrexit, izinsizakalo eziku-53.7 kanye nenhlanganisela engu-54 ngo-Agasti, kufanele zigcinwe. Uma kungenjalo, i-sterling ingase ibe ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Idatha ye-YoY yokuthengisa ye-Eurozone izodalulwa, okulindelekile ukuthi isibalo samanje se-2.6% sihambisane. Njengoba kugxilwa ku-USA, kushicilelwe ukufundwa kwe-ISM engakhiqizi i-ISM, okubikezelwa ukuthi kuzofika ngo-55.3 ngoSepthemba, ukufundwa okufanayo okuqoshwe ngo-Agasti. Kusihlwa isikhathi saseYurophu, uJanet Yellen, usihlalo we-Fed, uzokwethula inkulumo ngamabhange omphakathi e-St. Usuku luphetha ngedatha yase-Japan ephathelene nokuthengwa kwamabhondi nezitoko zangaphandle.
NgoLwesine ivula ngedatha yase-Australia yokuthengisa okudayisa kanye nebhalansi yokuhweba, ngesinqumo esenziwe ekuqaleni kwesonto mayelana nenani lenzalo lase-Aus, lezi zibalo zedatha eqinile zizocutshungulwa ngokwengeziwe, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi isinqumo sezinga sasihambisana yini nokusebenza komnotho kukonke. . Njengoba izimakethe zase-Europe sezilungele ukuvulwa, kuzoshicilelwa imethrikhi yakamuva ye-Swiss CPI, alukho ushintsho esibalweni samanje se-YoY esingu-0.5% esilindelwe. I-PMI yokwakha yaseJalimane izokwambulwa, ukufundwa kwe-54.9 ngo-Agasti kufanele kugcinwe, uMarkit uzophinde aveze ama-PMIs okudayisa eJalimane, i-Eurozone, iFrance ne-Italy. Idatha ebalulekile yase-Europe yosuku iphetha ngombiko womhlangano wenqubomgomo wakamuva oshicilelwe. Kunokuxutshwa kwedatha okuxubile (kwedatha eqinile nethambile), evela e-USA ntambama; Ukuncishiswa kwemisebenzi enzima, izimangalo zamasonto onke zokungasebenzi, ibhalansi yezohwebo, ama-oda asefekthri, ama-oda ezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside, kuyilapho izikhulu ezimbili ze-Fed zinikeza izinkulumo ezingqungqutheleni zamabhange nezabasebenzi.
Friday iveza umholo wase-Japan kanye nemali etholwayo, ehle yomibili ngo-Agasti, kokubili izinkomba eziphambili ne-coefficient zase-Japan nazo zizoshicilelwa. Ama-oda efekthri yaseJalimane nawo azoshicilelwa, njengamanje akhula ngo-5% nge-YoY, izibalo ze-MoM zisanda kwehla ngesizini (zehle -0.7% ngoJulayi), ukubuya ekukhuleni kulindeleke. Idatha yakamuva yaseCanada yokuqashwa nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi izoshicilelwa, okunenzalo ethile ezayo ngenyanga ngemva kokuba ibhange eliphakathi laseCanada lenyuse izinga lenzalo yalo. Izinga lamanje labangasebenzi lika-6.2% akulindelekile ukuthi lishintshe.
I-NPF yesiko yanyanga zonke (i-non-farm payroll) izoshicilelwa ngoLwesihlanu, yimisebenzi emisha engama-50k kuphela yenyanga kaSepthemba okulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngaphansi kuka-156k edalwe ngo-August futhi ibe ngaphansi kakhulu kwesilinganiso sanyanga zonke esilinganiselwa ku-250k. Naphezu kwedatha ye-NFP engakhiqizi iziqhumane ezinyangeni zamuva (noma iminyaka), lokhu kungase kushintshe uma inani eliphansi kangaka lithatha abahlaziyi nabatshalizimali ngokumangala. Iholo elimaphakathi kubikezelwa ukuthi lizokhuphuka ngo-0.3%, likhuphuke lisuka ku-0.1% ngo-August, okungase kwenyuse ukukhula kwamaholo onyaka, ngaphezu kwesibalo samanje sokukhula esingu-2.5%.
« Izingxoxo zeBrexit zidala ukuthi i-sterling ne-euro zishaye ngamandla, njengoba abatshalizimali base-USA bezilungiselela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga okungenakugwemeka ne-QT Ama-PMI ase-UK i-Eurozone ne-USA, kanye nokufundwa kwe-USA ISM, akha isisekelo semicimbi yekhalenda eyinhloko yangoMsombuluko »
