ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWESONTO 21/12 - 24/12 | ZIZOZENZEKA KANJANI IZIMAKI ZEZIMPAHLA, IZIMPAHLA NEZIMPAHLA NGESIKHATHI SEVIKI LEXMAS?
Isonto elingaphambi kweXmas ngokwesikhathi esivamile isikhathi sokuthula sokuhweba ezimakethe zezimali, iFX, kanye nezimpahla. Kodwa-ke, lo bekungewona unyaka ojwayelekile. U-2020 ube yincazelo yonyaka omuhle ngokweqile.
Usizi lweCoronavirus selubuse umhlaba wethu wezentengiselwano kusukela ngoMashi, futhi akekho umuntu obengabikezela ukuthi iBlack Swan izofika kanjani, yehle ukuzethemba emakethe ezinhlotsheni eziningi zokuphepha okuholele ekutheni kube nothango olungena zero.
Kepha ukwesekwa kweza ngokushesha ngendlela yesikhuthazo esikhulu esivela kohulumeni basentshonalanga nasemabhange amakhulu, okwenza izimakethe zokulingana zirekhode amanani aphezulu. I-SPX 500 inyuke ngo-14.33% unyaka nosuku kanti i-NASDAQ 100 inyuke ngo-43.83% omangalisayo futhi ongakaze ubonwe.
Unyaka omusha, kanye nokuphathwa okuncane kakhulu eWhite House
Eminyakeni edlule abahlaziyi abaningi baye babhala incwadi yabo yemithetho yekhalenda lezomnotho futhi bagxila ezindabeni ezinjengemicimbi ye-macroeconomic kanye nama-tweets kaTrump. Isikhathi esithile ngesikhathi esengumongameli, ama-tweets akhe kanye nokunyathela kwakhe emakethe yezokuxhumana elawulwa yimakethe.
Impi engadingekile ayithathe neChina yabangela ukuthi izimakethe zokulingana zehle ukuze zithwale izimo zezimakethe ngasekupheleni kuka-2018 ekuqaleni kuka-2019 kanye nenani le-USD ukwehla. Usole iChina ngokukhwabanisa imali wase eqala ukushaya imali eningi yokungeniswa kwamaShayina eMelika. Izimakethe zezimakethe zezimali zase-US zashaywa indiva ngokuthanda kwakhe.
Ubungacabanga ukuthi othile ubezomhlebela endlebeni yakhe “Mnumzane Mongameli; asiqiniseki ukuthi lokhu kuzosebenza, singenisa izimpahla zethu eziningi eChina, azithengi okuningi kithi, ngaphandle kwezolimo zesoya nezilwane. Futhi uma beyeka ukuthenga uzocasula abalimi owabathembisa ukuthi uzobavikela kwizethembiso zakho zokhetho zango-2016 ”.
Kuyiqiniso, uqeda isikhathi sakhe sokuboshwa e-White House esola ibhange eliphakathi laseSwitzerland ngokukhwabanisa kwemali, ngoba i-CHF inyuke ngo-8.96% uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD ngonyaka ka-2020. i-euro ithole cishe i-10% uma iqhathaniswa nedola, i-Aussie inyuke ngo-9%, i-yen inyuke ngo-5%, kanti i-Dollar Index (DXY) yehle -7%. Mhlawumbe, engqondweni yakhe, konke lokhu kuyitulo.
Njengabahlaziyi, sizama ukuhlala singakhethi ipolitiki; kodwa-ke, uma uBiden engakavulwa ngoJanuwari 2021, ngethemba sonke singabheka phambili esikhathini sokuzinza nokuhlanzeka e-USA. Azisekho izimpi zezohwebo, ukufinyelela e-Iran, eVenezuela naseYurophu, ekubuyiselweni kobudlelwano bomhlaba wonke, kanye nokuzibandakanya nesivumelwano sokuguquka kwesimo sezulu eParis okungenani.
Ukugoqwa kwemakethe kuleli sonto
Ukuxolisa kusengaphambili ngokuzwakala njengerekhodi eliphukile kepha asisodwa ekunikezeni izincazelo zemakethe eziphindaphindayo muva nje. Izinkinga ezimbili eziyinhloko ziphethe izimakethe; isikhuthazo esizovunyelwa iSenate yase-US kanye neBrexit.
Isikhuthazi sisondele esivumelwaneni, imininingwane eyimbudumbudu igxila ekutheni umuntu ngamunye omdala nengane yase-United States kufanele ithole malini. Amanye amaSenator aseRiphabhulikhi acabanga ukuthi u- $ 600 ngomuntu omdala ngamunye futhi u- $ 500 ngengane ngayinye kufanele anele ngemikhawulo yokufaneleka. Amanye amaSenator acindezela u- $ 1,200 kumuntu ngamunye omdala kanye ne- $ 600 ngengane ngayinye.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuqaphela ukuthi u- $ 2.4 trillion usuvele uvunyelwe yi-govt yase-USA ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene. Izilinganiso ziphakamisa ukuthi umfutho ohlangene we-Fed ne-Treasury (govt) ungafinyelela ku- $ 6 trillion uma kuphela u-2020, okwenyusa isikweletu sonke sase-US esidlule ku-125% v GDP.
Okuqinisekile, ukuthi izinkokhelo zesikhuthazo zizofika sekwephuze kakhulu ukusiza abantu abaningi baseMelika ukuthi bajabulele ukuzitika ngotshwala ngomkhosi. Ukudayiswa kwezitolo sehlile eMelika, futhi abasebenzi abaningi ngeke bachithe imali becabanga ukuthi “kulungile, ngizoqinisa nje ibhande lami ngoJanuwari” ngoba abazi nakancane ukuthi bazosebenza yini ngoJanuwari.
Abantu abadala baseMelika abangamashumi amabili nanhlanu bathola uhlobo losizo lokungasebenzi, amakhaya angama-60% awanayo imali ebonakalayo, kwathi ngoLwesine kwengezwa amanye angama-885K kwirejista yesimangalo sabangasebenzi.
IBrexit; ngeke bavumelane ngesivumelwano ngempelasonto?
Ngempelasonto edlule bekufanele kube yisiqephu sokugcina sesicelo esithi "kungumnikelo wami wokugcina, thatha noma ushiye" isaga seBrexit. Kodwa umnqamulajuqu ushelele, njengoba kwenzeka ngo-Okthoba nangoNovemba. I-UK ne-EU bavumile ukuthi kuxoxiswane ngale mpelasonto ukuzama ukuthola isisombululo.
Sonke siyazi ukuthi i-fudge esindisa ubuso iyeza, njengoba i-EU inikeza i-UK ithuba lokuphuma ngomusa, kepha ukulandisa okwenzelwe ukukhohlisa abantu base-UK akunakwenzeka ukubikezela. Ukuqagela okuhle ukuthi isivumelwano esingaxegi, esingabophi siyashicilelwa, kepha sibanjwa kuze kube ngoJanuwari ukuze kuvotwe emkhandlwini we-EU. Lokho okwenzayo ngosuku lukaJanuwari 1 iBrexit ukuqagela kwanoma ngubani.
Konke kumayelana nokukhanya nohulumeni wase-UK; badinga abavoti babo ukuze bababone njengabanqobile. Kepha izakhamizi zase-UK zilahlekelwa yinkululeko yokuhamba, inkululeko okhokho bayo abayilwela ukuyivikela. Lesi sehlukaniso kufanele sifake isikhathi sokulila e-UK; akukho okuzobungazwa.
USterling ushaye isifuba ezinhlakeni ezibanzi emasontweni edlule njengoba izingxoxo beziqhubeka, kwavela namahemuhemu amadili. NgoLwesihlanu, ngoDisemba 18, i-GBP / USD ibidayisa phansi -0.58%, inyuke ngo-2.15% masonto onke ngenxa yethemba lokuthi intuthuko ibisondele.
Lezi zithandani zemali zephule i-DMA engu-50 zaya ezansi ngesonto eledlule kodwa sezidayise ngaphezu kwaleli zinga kusukela ekuqaleni kukaNovemba. Njengamanje ihlelwe ku-1.3200 le ndawo engama-50 ye-DMA kanye nesibambo senombolo eyindilinga kungaba yinto ebhekiwe uma izingxoxo zingadilika ngaphandle kwanoma yiluphi uhlobo lwesivumelwano (yize lukhululekile).
Ukubheka okungahleliwe kwe-EUR / GBP eshadini lansuku zonke kuveza ukuthi ngabe ububanzi be-whipsawing bebukhulu kangakanani ngoDisemba. Ngesinye isikhathi kuleli sonto ukuphepha kudlule kwi-100 DMA. I-50 DMA kanye ne-100 DMA-cross-cross yayiseduze nokwakhiwa phakathi nesonto njengoba igebe lesilinganiso elihambayo lancipha. NgoLwesihlanu, ngoDisemba 18, i-EUR / GBP ithengise ngo-0.39% kuya ku-6.72% YTD.
Izinsimbi eziyigugu; indawo yokuphephela unyaka wonke
Uma ungumthengisi, akunakwenzeka ukuthi ungazisoli ngemisebenzi ongayithathi kulo nyaka. Sawubona, ukube nje besivele singene ku-Zoom naseTesla kulo nyaka ngesikhathi sokudilika ngoMashi noma sithenge i-NASDAQ 100 njengokubheja okuphephe kakhudlwana.
Ukuhamba igolide elide nesiliva bekuzoba yindawo yokubheja emuva ngesikhathi sezinyanga ezinzima esike sabhekana nazo. Njengezindawo eziphephile, bobabili oNdunankulu bavuke kakhulu. Igolide lenyuke ngama-23% we-YTD nesiliva lenyuka ngama-43%. Inhlanganisela yakho kokubili ukutshalwa kwezimali, kungaba ngokomzimba noma ngomthengisi wakho, ikhombise ukuthi iludonga oluhle kakhulu.
Isiliva belifunwa ngoba i-ounce lingu- $ 26 futhi liphansi njenge- $ 12 emuva ngoMashi. Ukuthola u- $ 1,000 wensimbi kwakuyithuba abaningi baseMelika (ababengabaza uhlelo) bangasebenzisa ngokunenzuzo lezi zimali ezincane. Abatshalizimali abaningi okunye kungenzeka ukuthi batshale imali ku-Bitcoin ngonyaka we-2020, ofinyelele izinga eliphakeme kakhulu ezinsukwini ezisanda kwedlula, wephula izinga lama-23,000.
Imicimbi enomthelela omkhulu okufanele ibhekwe esontweni eliqala ngoDisemba 20
Ukuqhutshwa kweXmas kuvamise ukuba yisonto elithule lezindaba ezibalulekile zekhalenda lezomnotho. NgoLwesibili i-UK ishicilela izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP, kulindeleke ukuthi zize zingashintshi kusukela kwikota edlule ngo-15.5% QoQ no -9.6% YoY.
Ukufundwa kweYoY kuzonikela i-UK njengomnotho owenza kabi kakhulu we-G7 ngesikhathi sobhadane yize kunezigidigidi ze-GBP zokuxhaswa kanye nabasebenzi abayizigidi ezingama-5.5 besakhokhelwa ngenkathi beselulekini elandisiwe.
Ngokuphambene nalokho, ukubikezelwa kwe-USA kungumlinganiso wokukhula we-QoQ GDP wama-33%, yize lokho kuphikisana ngentengo ephezulu; i-Coronavirus isebenzisa i-amok, ibulala ngokwesilinganiso abantu abayi-3,000 ngosuku. NgoLwesithathu kushicilelwa ama-oda wokuthengisa ahlala isikhathi eside e-USA, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yomuntu siqu, imali engenayo kanye nedatha yokuthengisa emakhaya emisha, ukufundwa okuzoba yisifinyezo sokuzethemba komthengi.
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