ISIKHATHI SOKUQALA SOKUPHAKATHI KWESIKHATHI 18 / 9-22 / 9 | Ngabe i-FOMC izomemezela ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo e-USA ngo-2017 ngoLwesithathu, noma izogcina impuphu yabo yomile kuze kube yikota yokugcina?
Ngaphandle kokungabaza, umcimbi obalulekile wekhalenda lezomnotho kuleli sonto elizayo, yisinqumo se-FOMC ngamazinga wenzalo, esizodalulwa ngoLwesithathu. Njengamanje ku-1.25%, izinga le-FOMC / Fed lenyuke kabili ngo-2017 futhi i-FOMC iphakamise ekuqaleni konyaka, ngezixwayiso ezivamile nolimi oluyisisekelo oluvumela indawo eyanele ukuthi ibuyele emuva, ukuthi okungenani kuzonyuka amazinga amathathu 2017.
Idola lehle kakhulu ngo-2017, yize izinga lenzalo likhuphukile selokhu kukhethwe uTrump, njengoba izinkomba zezimali zase-USA zihlangene, ngokuhlangana okungahambi kahle nedola. I-orthodoxy yezomnotho yakudala inquma lokho; inani eliphansi lemali yasekhaya lenyusa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe nokukhiqiza, kanti ukwenza ukungenisa ngaphakathi kubize kakhulu kanti uTrump ubophezelekile ukwenza ngcono ukukhiqizwa nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle "ngokubeka iMelika phambili". Kodwa-ke, ingozi ukuthi isikhathi seGoldilocks siqale sijatshulelwe. Ngemuva kwalokho; uma okokufaka / ukungenisa kwamanani entengo kubakhiqizi bese kuba abathumeli ngaphandle, khona-ke umbono wezomnotho uyawa, njengoba abakhiqizi bengasazizwa inzuzo yemali yabo yasekhaya eshibhile.
Ukwehla okusheshayo, ukuqoshwa kwerekhodi, ukukhuphuka kwezimakethe zezimali e-USA ngonyaka we-2017, kwenzeke ikakhulukazi njengomphumela wekhefu lentela elithenjisiwe likaTrump, okungenzeka ukuthi lenyuse imali kanye nenzuzo yezinkampani ezizinze e-USA, lokhu kukhuphuka akubangelwa yimali etholakalayo eyenziwe ngcono yodwa. Umnotho wase-USA ubuthakathaka kakhulu kunezinkomba eziningi zedatha enzima ezingaholela ekubeni sikholwe, ngakho-ke i-FOMC ingahle ivumelane nesibikezelo sokuvumelana (esethulwe ngabezomnotho abavotelwe), futhi ithathe isinqumo sokushiya inzalo ingashintshiwe, okwamanje.
Isonto liqala ngeSonto kusihlwa ngemininingwane yamanani yakamuva yasendlini yase-UK evela enkampanini yangasese i-Rightmove, eshicilela amanani abuzwayo (hhayi amanani athengisiwe), ehle ngo-0.9% ngo-Agasti, kuphakanyiswa ukunyuka okuncane, ukugcina ukukhula okwenziwe minyaka yonke ngaphezu kuka-3%.
UMsombuluko bafakazela imiphumela yendali yobisi evela eNew Zealand, imethrikhi ebucayi ukwahlulela ukusebenza komnotho wezwe ngokuthi, ngenxa yokuncika kwayo ngokweqile kubisi lobisi nobisi njengokuthunyelwa e-Asia. Izintengo zezimpahla zaseChina zibuye zivezwe ekuseni ngoMsombuluko, okuzobhekwa ngokucophelela ukuze kutholakale izimpawu zokuntenga kwasekhaya, kwezomnotho. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivuleka, kushicilelwa idatha yaseSwitzerland efaka imininingwane, ukufundwa okungafanele kuchithwe ngokuthi (yize kunomthelela ophansi) kungahle kube nomthelela enanini le-CHF (Swissie). I-Eurozone CPI kulindeleke ukuthi isondele ekukhuphukeni kwamanje kwe-1.3% YoY ebhaliswe ngoJulayi. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela e-USA, inkomba yemakethe yezindlu ye-NAHB izovezwa. Kamuva, i-USA isingathe umbusi weBhange LaseNgilandi uMark Carney, njengoba ethula inkulumo e-IMF eWashington. Kusihlwa kakhulu iNew Zealand ihlinzeka ngokufundwa kwayo kokuzethemba komthengi kwakamuva, okulethwa iqembu lebhange iWestpac.
NgoLwesibili imicimbi yekhalenda yezomnotho ebalulekile, iqala ngokuthi ibhange elikhulu lase-Australia (i-RBA) lishicilele amaminithi omhlangano ekuqaleni kwale nyanga, lapho linqume ukugcina inani lenzalo elingashintshi linga-1.50%. Kuzodalulwa nemininingwane yentengo yezindlu yase-Australia. Njengoba iYurophu ivula, imininingwane eyinhloko yezezimali emayelana ne-akhawunti yamanje ye-Eurozone kaJulayi iyalethwa, isibikezelo ngesomuntu ofanayo noJuni. Emalini eyinsada engu- + 21.2b, qhathanisa bese uqhathanisa lokho ku- $ 116b deficit i-USA erekhodwe ku-Q1 2017, isibikezelo sokwehla kuphela, lapho sishicilelwa ngo-12: 30 pm GMT. Ucwaningo lweZEW kwezomnotho, lwenziwa eJalimane nase-Eurozone, okulindelwe ukuthi kufundwe ngokufanayo nango-Agasti. Njengoba izimakethe zase-USA zivulwa, ukuqala kwezindlu kulindeleke ukuthi kubonise ukukhula kweYoY ngo-2.2%, intuthuko ephawulekayo ekuweni kwe -4.8% ebhaliswe ngoJulayi. Inkomba yentengo yokungenisa yaseMelika kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke iye ku-0.4% ngo-Agasti, kusuka ku-0.1% ngoJulayi, inkomba yamanani okuthekelisa kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ku-0.2% ngenyanga. Sekuhlwile ibhalansi ye-akhawunti yamanje yaseNew Zealand iyavezwa, kanye nebhalansi yezohwebo yaseJapan.
NgoLwesithathu kuqala ngombusi uLowe wase-RBA wase-Australia ethula inkulumo ePerth, kwalandelwa inkomba ehola phambili yase-Westpac yase-Australia kanye nedatha yezikhala ezinamakhono ezishicilelwa. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zilungiselela ukuvula, izintengo zakamuva zabakhiqizi baseJalimane (i-MoM ne-YoY) ziyashicilelwa. Ukugxila bese kudlulela emnothweni wase-UK, ngemininingwane yakamuva yokuthengisa eshicilelwe, ukuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ku-0.1% ngo-Agasti, kwehlise kukhule ngo-1.4% we-YoY, ngomnotho othembele kakhulu emkhakheni wezinsizakalo kulokhu kuwa (uma kufakazelwa efanele), kuzomela ukushaya kokusebenza kwe-UK jikelele. Njengoba ukunakwa kushintshela e-USA, kushicilelwa isicelo semali ebolekiswayo kanye nedatha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya, kanye nezinto ezijwayelekile zamandla ngoLwesithathu. Umcimbi obalulekile wezomnotho kuleli sonto; isinqumo se-FOMC (Fed) senzalo, sivezwa ngo-18: 00 GMT. Njengamanje ku-1.25%, osomnotho abavotelwe yiReuters kanye neBloomberg, babonakala behlukene phakathi ngesibikezelo sokwenyuka, ukuvumelana okuphelele akulona ushintsho. Kuthe kusihlwa kushicilelwa isibalo sakamuva se-Q2 YoY saseNew Zealand, okuyisibalo samanje sokukhula okungu-2.5%, kulindeleke ukuthi sigcinwe.
NgoLwesine imininingwane yezomnotho esemqoka iqala ngesitatimende senqubomgomo yezimali yaseJapan, esizocutshungulwa kahle ngenxa yokusebenza kweJapan kweGDP okwenziwe ngcono muva nje, okuphakamisa ukuthi lo mbuso onedumela elibi
Uhlelo lwe-Abenomics kungenzeka lusebenza. Inkomba yemisebenzi yonke yezimboni yaseJapan ngoJulayi nayo izokwembulwa, kanjalo nokwanda kokuthengiswa kwezitolo ezinkulu ngo-Agasti. Kamuva emini, umbusi we-BOJ uKuroda uzobamba isithangami nabezindaba, ngemuva kokuthi umthelela wesitatimende senqubomgomo yezimali usufakwe ekuziphatheni kwezimakethe. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zilungiselela ukuvula iSwitzerland: ibhalansi yezohwebo, izibikezelo zezomnotho zezwe, izibalo zokunikezwa kwemali, ukuthunyelwa kanye nedatha yokungenisa impahla kukhishwa. Yize kubhalwe njengezehlakalo ezinomthelela ophansi kuya ophakathi, umphumela wokuqoqwa kokukhishwa kwedatha okusheshayo, ungasusa inani leSwitzerland franc, uma kwenzeka noma iyiphi idatha imangaza imakethe. Ntambama kuzokhishwa ukufundelwa ukuzethemba kwabathengi kwe-Eurozone. Umbiko omusha wakamuva wezomnotho we-ECB ushicilelwe. Sibe sesidlulela ngokushesha esihlahleni semininingwane yase-UK, maqondana nesimo sezimali zomphakathi zezwe. Kusuka e-USA kuvela: izimangalo ezingenamsebenzi zamasonto onke zivezwa, njengezicelo eziqhubekayo, izinkomba zakamuva eziholayo nombono webhizinisi likaPhilly Fed. Ushintsho lwenani eliphelele labaninikhaya nalo liyashicilelwa, okujwayelekile futhi okuhlobene kakhulu ngqo namazinga esikweletu kanye nemali esetshenziswayo.
Friday iphethwe yisheduli esebenzayo kakhulu yezomnotho yaseYurophu; I-GDP yaseFrance ye-Q2 kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale cishe ku-1.8%, ama-PMI amathathu abalulekile aseFrance: izinsizakalo, ukukhiqizwa kanye nokuhlanganiswa, kuyashicilelwa. Uchungechunge olufanayo lwama-PMIs lushicilelwa i-Germany ne-Eurozone. Njengoba ukunakwa kuthuthela eNyakatho Melika, iCPI yaseCanada ishicilelwa, njengamanje i-1.2% YoY kaJulayi, nesibalo seMoM singena ngoziro, akukho ukulindelwa okuncane kokwenyuka okukhulu. Imininingwane yokuthengisa yaseCanada nayo iyakhishwa. Ukukhishwa okubalulekile kwamasonto kuphela ngamaMarkit PMIs e-USA; izinsizakalo, ezokukhiqiza kanye nezinhlanganisela, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi yize idumela lazo eliyinkomba ehamba phambili, ukufundwa kweMarkit PMI e-USA kuvame ukuthatha isikhundla esiphansi kunama-ISM PMIs, ngokuya ngomthelela jikelele wemakethe e-USA. Isibalo se-Baker Hughes sithatha ukubaluleka okwandayo kwakamuva, njengomphumela wesiphepho e-USA futhi siqeda ukukhishwa komnotho kwesonto.
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