ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKISHA SAMASONTO 11 / 9-15 / 9 | Ngabe iSwitzerland National Bank kanye neBhange laseNgilandi, kungaletha ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo?
Embonini yethu kuhlala kukhokha ukulindela okungalindelekile nokwazi ukuthi izindaba ezibalulekile ziziqhuba kanjani izimakethe zethu ze-FX. Umfanekiso ophelele wezimo zezimakethe ezihambayo zezindaba zekhalenda, uze kithi ngoLwesithathu, njengoba ibhange eliphakathi laseCanada lenyuse izinga lenzalo ngo-0.25%, okubangele ukwenyuka kwenani ledola laseCanada uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo. Ipheya ye-USD/CAD yehle cishe. 1.5% ngemuva nje kokudalulwa kwesinqumo.
Sinalokho engqondweni, ake sibhekise ukunaka kwethu eBhange Likazwelonke lase-Swiss, okwamanje elisebenzisa inqubomgomo ye-NIRP (izinga lenzalo elibi), elikhokhisa -0.75% ngelungelo lokufaka imali. Kuthathwa njengenye yezinhlobo zemali zomhlaba ezinzile kakhulu, abaningi bethu bayehluleka ukuthola izindaba zekhalenda laseSwitzerland, naphezu kwesikhalo se-franc esisele emhlabeni wonke; izwe belihlala liyindawo ebucayi, ehlakaniphile futhi eyimfihlo yokungena ebhange. Futhi abaningi bethu bazokhumbula ukukhuphuka okuphawulekayo kwenani le-Swiss franc ngo-2015, lapho i-SNB ithatha isikhonkwane sayo esixegayo i-euro.
Umnotho wase-UK njengamanje ubukeka untekenteke, lapho wehlulelwa ngamamethrikhi amaningi, mhlawumbe umbusi uMark Carney kanye nekomidi lakhe lenqubomgomo yezimali babonise amakhono amangalisayo okuqagela ukuze bafinyelele amazinga aphansi futhi bakhuphule i-QE, ngemuva nje kokuthi abantu base-UK bavotele u-52% I-Brexit ngoJuni 2016. Kodwa-ke, uma iphawundi iba buthaka ngokuqhubekayo futhi uma i-Europe ne-USA benyusa amanani ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, i-UK ngokuqinisekile kuyodingeka ilandele okufanayo, ukuvikela inani lephawundi.
Nakuba osomnotho okwaxoxwa nabo babikezela ukuthi i-SNB kanye ne-BoE ngeke bamemezele izinguquko ezimisweni zabo zamanje zezimali ngesonto elizayo, kuyindaba yesikhathi kuphela ngaphambi kokuba ziphoqeleke ukuthi ziphoqeleke ukuba zenze izinto ngendlela enohlonze.
NgeSonto kusihlwa iqala isonto ngomcimbi wezindaba obalulekile onomthelela omkhulu, ngendlela yemalimboleko entsha ekhishwe nge-yuan, ngamabhange aseShayina. Nakuba izindaba kungenzeka zithinte ngokuqondile iningi lezinhlobo zemali ezihwetshwa ngamakhasimende ethu, imininingwane izocutshungulwa abahlaziyi ukuze kutholwe yonke impilo yomnotho waseShayina futhi kutholwe ukuthi abaphathi neziphathimandla zaseShayina ziyanyakaza yini kulokhu okutholakalayo. amazinga esikweletu kubantu abajwayelekile, noma uma isidingo somthengi sesikweletu sincipha. Isibikezelo sokuvumelana esokwenyuka ngo-Agasti kuya ku-950b yuan, sisuka ku-825.5b ngoJulayi. Izibalo ezihlanganisiwe zezezimali nezokuhlinzekwa kwemali jikelele, qedela uchungechunge lokukhishwa ngeSonto kusihlwa/ngoMsombuluko ekuseni okuhlobene ne-China. Ezinye izindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho lase-Asia zivela e-Japan, njengoba ama-oda anyanga zonke nawemishini ye-YoY kanye nemininingwane yesitoko semali ishicilelwa. Ama-oda emishini abikezelwa ukuthi azoba ngcono ngoJulayi, ukusuka esibalweni sokukhula esingesihle -5.2%, esibhaliselwe uJuni.
UMsombuluko iqhubeka netimu yomshini nokusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi e-Japan, ngokukhishwa kwedatha ye-oda lamathuluzi omshini, isibalo se-YoY (August) kulindeleke ukuthi sigcine izinga elifanayo lokunyuka kwaminyaka yonke okungama-28%, okubhaliselwe inyanga kaJulayi. Imininingwane ye-Swiss total sight kanye nediphozithi yasekhaya iyashicilelwa, kuyilapho ingabhekwa njengezindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu, lokhu kukhishwa kunamandla okuhambisa inani le-Swiss franc. Njengoba ukunakwa kushintshela eNyakatho Melika, imininingwane yokuqala kwezindlu zaseCanada ngo-Agasti izodalulwa, isibalo sikaJulayi (YoY) sifike ku-222.3k, abahlaziyi bazobe beqaphe ukukhishwa ngokucophelela (futhi ngokubheka emuva), baqale ukuhlola ukucabanga okuphelele kweCanada. Ibhange elikhulu likhuphula izinga lenzalo eyinhloko, ngoLwesithathu, 6 September.
NgoLwesibili Imicimbi yekhalenda ebalulekile iqala ngocwaningo lokuqashwa kwenkampani iManpower ehlobene: ne-Japan, China kanye ne-Australia, i-Germany yengezwa ocwaningweni lwale nkampani olushicilelwe ntambama. Ibhange le-NAB e-Australia lembula inhlolovo yalo yokuzethemba kwebhizinisi nezimo, amabhalansi ekhadi lesikweletu kanye nemininingwane yokuthenga e-Australia nayo iyavezwa; iletha inkomba ecashile yokuzethemba kwabathengi base-Australia. Njengoba izindawo zesikhathi zingena ezindabeni zase-Europe, idatha esemthethweni yase-UK ishicilelwa yi-ONS. Izintengo zomkhiqizi (okungenzeka zikhuphuke ngenxa yokwehla kwephawundi uma kuqhathaniswa ne-euro), izintengo zezindlu, i-RPI kanye nenani eliphawuleka kakhulu le-CPI, kokubili nyanga zonke kanye ne-YoY kuyembulwa. Isibalo sanyanga zonke se-CPI sehle ngo--0.1% ngoJulayi, amanani onyaka afika ku-2.6%, ukubuyisela emalini enhle yenyanga, nezinga lonyaka okulindeleke ukuba ligcinwe, kubonakala kuwumbono weningi owabikezelwa izazi zezomnotho. .
Ekuseni ngolwesithathu Ibhange lase-Australia i-Westpac lishicilela ukufundwa kokuzithemba komthengi kanye nenkomba yango-September, ukufundwa kokuzethemba kuka-August kwehle ngo-1.2% okungekuhle, kulindeleke ukuba ngcono. Kulandela imiphumela yokuthenga yebhondi eqondile yonyaka ongu-1-10 e-Japan, i-CPI yaseJalimane yango-Agasti iyavezwa, okulindelekile ukuthi izinga lamanje lika-1.8% ligcinwe. Ngokuhlala endikimbeni yedatha yase-Europe, ukushicilelwa kwakamuva kwenyanga kwase-UK kwedatha yokuqashwa kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kushicilelwe, izinga lokungasebenzi libikezelwa ukuthi lizohlala ku-4.4%, kuyilapho ukukhula kweholo kuhlelelwe ukuhlala ku-2.1% ngonyaka, ngaphansi kokubili kwe-CPI kanye Izibalo ze-RPI. Idatha yokuqashwa kwekota yesibili ye-Eurozone nayo ishicilelwe ngoLwesithathu, isibikezelo siwukukhula komsebenzi wonyaka ukuze kugcinwe ezingeni elifanayo nalelo elirekhodiwe ku-Q1, ku-1.5%. Idatha yokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-Eurozone nayo yembulwa, ukulindela ukuthi ukukhula kuzohlala ezingeni likaJulayi lika-2.6% YoY. Njengoba ukunaka kuphendukela e-USA, kushicilelwa amamethrikhi ahlukahlukene e-PPI, kanjalo nezinhla ezihlukahlukene zamandla okuzothi, uma kubhekwa ukuphazamiseka okubangelwa iziphepho ezihlukahlukene zasezindaweni ezishisayo, kuzocutshungulwa ngokucophelela. Isitatimende sesabelomali sanyanga zonke sase-USA sika-Agasti kanye nombiko webhalansi yentengo yendlu yase-UK we-RICS, siqedela idatha yezomnotho yosuku.
NgoLwesine ingafakaza umsebenzi ngazo zombili izinhlobo zemali ze-Antipodean, njengoba idatha yokuthenjwa ye-New Zealand nemininingwane yase-Australia ku-CPI kanye nezinguquko zokuntuleka kwemisebenzi nokuqashwa zishicilelwa, noshintsho oluncane kuwo womabili la mazwe ukukhishwa kwedatha okubikezelwe. Ukudayiswa kwezitolo zaseChina ngo-August kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzoveza izinga elifanayo lokukhula kukaJulayi ngo-10.4%, kuyilapho ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwezimboni zase-Chinese YoY kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kusezingeni elifanayo, kukhule ngo-6.8% okuqoshwe ngoJulayi. Idatha yokukhiqizwa kwezimboni zaseJapan nayo iyashicilelwa, ngaphambi kokuthi idatha yaseYurophu iqale ukugxila kakhulu, kuqala ngezinombolo zokuthengiswa kwezimoto zaseYurophu kanye nesinqumo sezinga lediphozithi yaseSwitzerland, okwamanje eku-0.75%. I-UK's retail sales (YoY) ibikezelwa ukuthi izogcina izinga lokukhula likaJulayi 1.5%, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kuseshini yaseLondon iBhange LaseNgilandi lizodalula isinqumo salo mayelana nenani lenzalo eliyisisekelo, okwamanje okuyirekhodi eliphansi kakhulu lika-0.25%, kukhona umbono wokuvumelana okuncane wokwenyuka, kuyilapho uhlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla lungalindelekile ukuba lukhule, ngaphezu kwengqikithi yamanje yezinga elingu-£435b. Idatha yamanani ezindlu (izindlu ezintsha) zase-Canada izoshicilelwa, kulandelwe izicelo zamasonto onke zokungabi namisebenzi e-USA kanye nenani lezakhamuzi eziqhubeka nokufaka izicelo. Isibalo se-CPI yase-USA sizodalulwa, isibikezelo sizonyuka sifinyelele ku-1.8%, i-YoY sisuka ku-1.7% ngoJulayi. Isilinganiso sokukhushulwa kwamaholo amasonto onke e-YoY ngo-August kubikezelwa ukuthi azohlala emazingeni amile uma kuqhathaniswa; Ukufundwa kukaJulayi kuzokhula ngo-1.1%.
NgoLwesihlanu ekuseni I-Japan ishicilela ukuthengiswa kwesitolo somnyango kanye nemiphumela yezindali ezihlukahlukene zamabhondi, zokuvuthwa okuhlukahlukene. Lapho izimakethe zaseYurophu zivuleka, izibalo zakamuva zebhalansi yezohwebo nezindleko zabasebenzi ziyembulwa. Njengoba kugxilwa e-USA, imiphumela yokukhiqiza i-Empire ishicilelwa ngo-September, njengedatha ebalulekile yokuthengiswa kwezitolo ethuthukisiwe, okulindeleke ukuthi yehle iye ku-0.3%, isuka ku-0.6% yesibalo esirekhodwe ngoJulayi. Imininingwane yokusetshenziswa kwamandla yembulwa e-USA, njengoba kunjalo nokukhula kokukhiqiza, okufike kubi ngoJulayi, ku -0.1%. Umbiko wokuzethemba wenyuvesi yaseMichigan wangoSepthemba ushicilelwe, ukufundwa okungu-96.8 okubikwe ngo-Agasti kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzofaniswa eduze. Izinhlu zamabhizinisi e-USA zangoJulayi zibikezelwa ukuthi zizokwehla ziye ku-0.2% zisuka ku-0.5% ezibhaliswe ngoJuni. Ekugcineni, njengenjwayelo, imicimbi yekhalenda yeviki iphetha ngokubala kwe-Baker Hughes rig, enenzalo eyengeziwe uma kubhekwa iziphepho zakamuva eziphazamisa ukukhishwa kwamandla nokukhiqizwa endaweni yase-USA.
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