ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVEKI 01/02 - 05/02 | IZINKOMPANI ZOKULINGANA ZIHOLA NGAPHEZU KWEZIMPAWU ZOKUGCINA ZONKE ZE-Yurophu

UJan 29 • Ingabe i-Trend Still Friend Yakho • Ukubukwa okungu-2279 • Amazwana Off ku-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 01/02 - 05/02 | IZINKOMPANI ZOKULINGANA ZIHOLA NGAPHEZU KWEZIMPAWU ZOKUGCINA ZONKE ZE-EUROPE ZE-Q4 EZA NGCONO KOKULINDELEKILE

Bekuyisonto lama-GDPs kuleli sonto. Ukufundwa kokugcina kwe-GDP kwezomnotho wase-USA ngonyaka ka-2020 kungene ngo -3.5%, okuwukusebenza okubi kakhulu kusukela ngo-1946 okurekhodwe ngesikhathi se-WW2.

Imethrikhi ye-Q4 yokukhula kwe-GDP yase-US ifike ku-4%, kwesibikezelo futhi yabuyela emuva kusuka ku-blist 33% ye-COVID-19 yejubane lokutakula eliqoshwe ku-Q3 ngaphambi kokuba i-US iqale ukudalula imikhakha ethile yezomnotho (kanye nomphakathi).

NgoLwesihlanu ekuseni, iFrance neJalimane zishicilele izibalo ze-GDP ze-Q4 2020. Abahlaziyi nabathengisi bebebheke kule datha ukukhombisa ukushesha kokululama kwe-Eurozone.

IJalimane imangaze izimakethe ngokuthumela isibalo sokukhula esingu-0.1% ku-Q4, yize ngo-2020 umnotho wehle ngo -5%. IFrance iqophe ukusikwa okungu--1.3% ku-Q4, okungcono kunokubikezela kwe -4% futhi kuza ngemuva kokukhula kwerekhodi okungu-18% ku-Q3. I-GDP yaseSpain nayo yashaya izibikezelo, eza ngo-0.3% wokukhula kwikota yokugcina ka-2020.

Kodwa-ke, kokubili ukuvinjelwa kwesifo esiwumshayabhuqe saseFrance nesaseJalimane kwanda ngamandla ngasekupheleni kukaDisemba; ngakho-ke, izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP azikwazi ukukhomba ekutholeni okusimeme. Amamethrikhi we-Q1 2021 azoba nzima ngenxa yomjikelezo omusha wokuvalwa phansi kuyo yonke indawo yokuhweba kanye nesifunda esibanzi se-EU. Njenge-UK, iFrance neJalimane nazo zibhekene nokwehla okungenakugwemeka kokudilizwa kabili ku-Q1 2021.

Izinkomba zezimali zaseYurophu zehle lapho izimakethe zivulwa ngoLwesihlanu kodwa zalulama kancane lapho idatha ye-bullish Eurozone GDP isishicilelwe. Ngo-9: 30 ekuseni isikhathi sase-UK i-DAX ithengise phansi -0.77%, i-CAC yehla -0.88% kwathi i-UK FTSE 100 yehla -0.69%. I-DAX ne-CAC manje sezihweba ezindaweni ezingezinhle minyaka yonke, kuyilapho i-FTSE 100 inyuke ngo-0.50%.

Ikusasa lezimakethe zezimali zaseMelika likhomba ukuwa lapho iNew York ivula namhlanje ntambama, i-SPX 500 ithengise phansi -1.04% kanye ne-NASDAQ 100 phansi -1.53%. Uma lawo mazinga egcina emakethe evulekile, lezi zimakethe ezihola phambili zase-US zizophenduka zibe zimbi minyaka yonke. Masonto onke i-SPX yehle ngama--2.35%, kanti i-NASDAQ iphansi -2.55%.

Ukuthengiswa okulingene kwaleli sonto ezimakethe eziningi zomhlaba ezisentshonalanga kungahle kube ngenxa yezici ezine.

1. Umhlangano wokusiza weBiden usuphelile. Abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali bacabanga ngemisebenzi emikhulu okumele umongameli ayibhekele kwezomnotho nasemphakathini, ngenkathi eletha imijovo yokugoma emakhulwini ezigidi zezakhamizi zaseMelika.
2. Ukwehliswa okuningana okuhlukanisiwe eYurophu nase-USA kuphazamise noma yikuphi ukululama okuqhubekayo. Khonamanjalo, sekuqubuke izimpikiswano ezingenasithunzi ngokunikezwa nokusatshalaliswa kwemithi yokugoma phakathi kwe-UK ne-EU.
3. Ukuthatha inzuzo kungenzeka kwenzeka. Ngemuva kokukhula okuphawulekayo okwenzeka ngo-2020, ngeke kusimangaze uma abatshalizimali abaningi (ikakhulukazi abatshalizimali abathengisa) befaka ama-chips abo futhi besuka etafuleni.
4. Ukwanda okukhulu kokuhweba ngosuku lokuthengisa kungahle kuphele. Abathengisi abaningi base-US bathole imakethe yezinketho ngokusebenzisa amapulatifomu anamageyimu afana neRobin Hood ukusiza ukuphoqa amasheya (ikakhulukazi amasheya ezobuchwepheshe) ezindaweni eziphakeme. Manje njengoba amaholo eseshicilelwa kuya ngokuya kuba nzima ukuthethelela amanani asuselwa kuzilinganiso zamanani wenzuzo wangempela.

I-USD iyakhuphuka phakathi nesonto ngenkathi uwoyela ongahluziwe ugcina izinzuzo zawo zakamuva

Idola laseMelika liqophe inzuzo enkulu uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo phakathi nesonto. Abatshalizimali nabathengisi be-USD bakhuthazwe izitatimende zakamuva zikasihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell mayelana nenqubomgomo yemali ahlose ukuyigcina. I-Fed ayilukhuphuli uhlelo lokuthenga ama-bond / QE kanti noMnu uPowell ubuye wakhombisa ukuthi alukho ushintsho kuzinga lenzalo ka-0.25% yamanje esikhathini esimaphakathi.

Inkomba yedola i-DXY ibikhuphuke ngo-0.27% ngesikhathi sokuqala sangoLwesihlanu futhi inyuka ngo-0.57% masonto onke, igcina isikhundla ngaphezulu kwesibambi sezinga eliphakeme esingu-90.00 ku-90.70. I-EUR / USD yehle -0.54% masonto onke ngenkathi ihweba eduze nefulethi futhi eduze kwepinti le-pivot yansuku zonke phakathi neseshini yangoLwesihlanu eLondon naseYurophu.

I-GBP / USD inikele ngokunenzuzo okurekhodwe phakathi nesonto phansi -0.11%. Esikhathini sokuqala sangoLwesihlanu lezi zimbili zemali zathengisa -0.38% ngenkathi zisongela ukwephulwa kwe-S1.

Ukudluliswa kwesiphephelo kwe-JPY ne-CHF kuphelile kuleli sonto. I-USD / JPY inyuke ngo-1.09% ngeviki inyuke ngo-0.51% ngosuku. I-USD / CHF inyuke ngo-0.53% masonto onke futhi inyuke ngo-0.10% ngosuku. I-USD iphinde ibuyisele emuva ukulahleka kwakamuva kuqhathaniswa nezimali ze-antipodean kuleli sonto; I-AUD / USD iphansi -0.90%, kuthi i-NZD / USD yehle -0.22% masonto onke.

Uwoyela ongahluziwe ukhuphuke kakhulu ngo-2021. Uphethiloli wokukhula komhlaba unyuke ngo-8.25% YTD no-8.54% njalo ngenyanga. Lokho kukhuphuka kwehle kuleli sonto, kwehle kwafika ku-0.48%. Izimakethe zifakile ezitokisini nasekudlulisweni kwezinyanga zasebusika eYurophu naseMelika, futhi ngokombono we-IMF kuleli sonto ukukhula komhlaba ngeke kubuye kuze kube yilapho umuthi wokugoma ukhishwa futhi kufakazelwa ukuthi uyasebenza.

Izinsimbi eziyigugu zihlangabezane nenhlanhla ehlanganisiwe kuleli sonto. Igolide lidayisa eduze nefulethi ngesonto, phansi -0.06% kepha lenyuka ngo-0.76% ngoLwesihlanu ku- $ 1,853 ngehora. Isiliva likhuphuke kakhulu kuleli sonto, lenyuka ngo-6.18% masonto onke futhi lenyuka ngo-2.31% ngoLwesihlanu ukuhweba ngo- $ 26.95 ngehora.

Imicimbi yekhalenda ezobhekwa phakathi nesonto eliqala ngeSonto, Januwari 31

On NgoMsombuluko, ngoFebhuwari 1, kushicilelwa ama-PMIs amaningi akhiqiza i-IHS Markit eYurophu. I-Italy, iFrance, iJalimane nendawo ebanzi ye-Eurozone kufanele ikhombise ukuwa ngoJanuwari.

UMarkit ubikezela nokuthi i-UK izokwembula ukuwa. Kodwa-ke, konke ukufundwa kwamazwe kufanele kuhlale kungaphezu kwamazinga angama-50 ahlukanisa ukusikwa ekukhuleni. Ukuvunyelwa kwempahla ebanjiswayo, isikweletu sabathengi nedatha yamanani ezindlu iyashicilelwa e-UK ngesikhathi sesikhathi sasekuseni, futhi konke ukufundwa okuthathu kufanele kuhlale kusondele kumanani wangaphambilini.

Ama-PMM akhiqiza ama-PMI eCanada nase-USA azoshicilelwa ntambama. Ukusetshenziswa kwemali yokwakha e-USA kungahle kwehle kuye ku-0.5% lapho kushicilelwa isibalo sikaDisemba.

Idola lase-Aussie lizohlolwa ngesikhathi NgoLwesibili Iseshini yaseSydney njengoba i-RBA iveza isinqumo sayo senani lenzalo. Izinga kufanele lihlale lingashintshiwe ku-0.1%.

Njengoba kuvulwa iseshini yaseLondon-European, izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP zase-Italy zizoshicilelwa. Abahlaziyi babikezela ukuwa konyaka nonyaka -5.8% no-Q2 2020 ka--2.3%. AbakwaReuters babikezela ukwehla kwe-GDP ye-EA kuye -6.0% ngo-2020 no--2.2% we-Q4.

Izinsiza ze-IHS Markit zaseYurophu zizokwabiwa phakathi NgoLwesithathu Iseshini yaseLondon-European. IFransi, iSpain, i-Italy ne-EA bazokhombisa ukuwa ngokusho kwabahlaziyi baseReuters naseBloomberg.

Izinsizakalo zase-UK i-PMI zizoba nokuwohloka okuphawuleka kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuthi zifike ku-38.8 ngoJanuwari, zehle zisuka ku-49.4 ngoDisemba. Ukuwa okunjalo kungaba nomthelela enanini le-GBP uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yalo lapho idatha isakazwa. Ngokwabahlaziyi, ukwehla kwamandla emali e-Europe bekungakhuphukela ku-0.1% minyaka yonke kukhuphuke no-0.5% ngoJanuwari.

Ukufundwa kwezinsizakalo zeMarkit e-USA kufanele kukhombise ukuthuthuka ngoJanuwari, futhi inhlanganisela ingafika kuma-58, ngaphezu kwamazinga angama-50 okwandisa ukusikwa. Inombolo yokuqashwa kwe-ADP ibikezelwa ku-50K, intuthuko enkulu uma kuqhathaniswa nokufunda -123K phambilini. Inhlanganisela kaMarkit enempilo engezwe ekukhuthazeni izinombolo zemisebenzi ingaba nomthelela omuhle enanini le-USD uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yalo.

Ama-PMI wokwakha ahanjiswa NgoLwesine kweJalimane ne-UK, ukwakhiwa akuzange kume ngesikhathi sokuvalwa kwe-UK; ngakho-ke, ukufundwa kuzohlala ngaphezulu kuka-50 ku-54.6 ngokusho kwabahlaziyi. Ibhange laseNgilandi lase-UK lizoveza isinqumo samuva senzalo futhi liluleke uma kukhona ushintsho ohlelweni lwe-QE. Zombili izindaba zenqubomgomo yezimali kufanele zihlale zingashintshiwe.

Isibalo samasonto onke sokungasebenzi kwemisebenzi ye-US silethwa yi-BLS ngoLwesine ntambama, ukufundwa kwakamuva kwehle ngaphansi kuka-900K ngesonto, futhi ithemba ukuthi lo mkhuba uzoqhubeka nokukhombisa ukwehla. Ngokwabahlaziyi, ama-oda efektri kufanele akhombise izimpawu zokuthuthuka; isilinganiso sizokhuphuka sisuke ku-1% siye ku-1.7% ngoJanuwari. Ithemba elenziwe yilezi zibalo ezimbili lingaba nomthelela omuhle enanini le-USD.

On Friday sizokwamukela idatha yesibili ye-NFP yango-2021. Ngemuva kokuthi isibalo sikaJanuwari siqukethe imisebenzi yangoDisemba, uFebruwari uzoba ngokoqobo maqondana nemisebenzi edalwe emnothweni omkhulu emhlabeni. Abahlaziyi babikezela imisebenzi engu-80K kuphela edaliwe, ithuthuka kusuka ekulahlekelweni kwemisebenzi -140K ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okurekhodwe phambilini. Izinga labantu abangasebenzi e-US kufanele lihlale ku-6.7%, kanti elaseCanada kufanele lehle lisuka ku-8.8% liye ku-8.7%. Idatha yakamuva yoku-oda yasefemini evela eJalimane, ibhalansi yezohwebo yaseFrance, ukuthengisa okuthengiswayo e-Italy, namanani ezindlu zase-UK (ngokusho kwebhange leNationalwide) ukufundwa okungathinta inani le-EUR ne-GBP uma imiphumela ingaphumeleli noma ishaye izibikezelo zabahlaziyi.

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