Isimo Sezulu, Ukuphazamiseka Kokuphakelwa Kwamanani Amanani Wegesi
Izintela zikagesi zikhuphuke ngama-40% eGerman naseFrance emasontweni amabili edlule. Emazweni afana ne-UK neSpain, ohulumeni bayashesha ukuthatha izinyathelo eziphuthumayo ukuvikela abathengi. Ngenxa yalokhu, kusuka ezintweni ze-aluminium eMexico kuya ezitshalweni zomanyolo eNgilandi, izitshalo ziyavalwa okwesikhashana. Izimakethe ziyathukuthela. Abanye bathi lokhu kuyefana nenkinga yezezimali zezimpahla zomhlaba wonke. Ngisho naseMelika, ethathwa njengomkhiqizi omkhulu wegesi yemvelo, amaqembu anxenxa afuna i-White House ukuthi ivimbele ukuthunyelwa kwegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe (i-LNG), ekhuphuke ngentengo yaba ngama- $ 25 ngezigidi zamayunithi okushisa aseBrithani (BTU) . Ngokuvamile, ikhuphuke ngo-2/3 ngenyanga edlule.
Ngandlela thile, le nkinga yavela ekuxakekeni kwezimbangela - kusuka ekuzimeni komhlaba kuya ekuqokeleleni ngokuqapha e-Asia, okwaholela emananini aphezulu. Kodwa-ke, uma kubukwa ngombono ohlukile, konke kuvela kucace ngokwedlulele: imakethe yamandla eneziphephelo ezibuthakathaka kakhulu yeqisa ekuphazamiseni. Ngokulandelayo, ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphansi kumafutha ezimbiwa kungasho ukuthi ukungazinzi okuphezulu kuzoqhubeka.
Isimo sezulu sidlale ihlaya elinesihluku.
Ukushoda kuye kwamangaza cishe wonke umuntu. Imakethe yamazwe omhlaba ibinegesi eningi ngo-2019, ngenxa yezitshalo ezintsha ze-LNG eMelika. Ngenkathi ubhadane lweCovid-19 luqhekeka futhi ukukhiywa ngokweqile kunesidingo, iningi legesi eyeqile iya ezindaweni zokugcina izinto eYurophu. Ifike kahle ebusika obudlule, obabubanda kakhulu eNyakatho Asia naseYurophu. UFrost ukhuphule isidingo sokushisa. Ngenxa yalokho, amanani entengo kagesi e-Asia aphindwe kane ezinyangeni ezintathu. Abathengi njengezinkampani zikaphethiloli zikazwelonke bebelokhu bebuka ukuthi imakethe ye-LNG igcwalisa kanjani imali ebekiwe. Ngenxa yalokhu, izimpahla eziningi ezibhekiswe eYurophu zidluliselwe e-Asia. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izwekazi lanciphisa izinqolobane zalo, ngakho-ke amanani akhona akhuphuka kancane.
Isimo sezulu asibikezeleki nakulo nyaka. Ihlobo elishisayo liholele ekwandeni okusheshayo kwesidingo segesi e-Asia. Ngokusho kwenkampani yezezimali i-AllianceBernstein, lesi sifunda sibala cishe u-3/4 wokungeniswa kwe-LNG emhlabeni. I-China ihambe phambili ngokusimama kwayo ngokushesha kwezomnotho. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2021, ukukhiqizwa kukagesi ezweni lakhuphuka ngo-16% ngaphezu konyaka odlule. U-3/5 kagesi wakhona ukhiqizwa ngamalahle; Ingxenye yesihlanu ibalwa ngamandla kagesi.
Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yesomiso, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi kuphansi, futhi nesidingo samalahle sehlile ngenxa yezinqubomgomo ezingayilimazi imvelo. Isibonelo, kwaphakanyiswa ukuthi kufakwe ama-boilers akhishwa ngamalahle afakwe ngegesi. Kukhona nokutshalwa kwezimali okuncane ezimayini, okusho ukuthi iChina iya ngokuya incike kwigesi yemvelo. Ngesikhathi se-2021-H1, umkhiqizo wayo wakhula ngokushesha kunamalahle namandla kagesi. Ngonyaka, ukungeniswa kwe-Chinese LNG kukhule ngama-26%.
Amanye amazwe nawo anesidingo esikhulu, ngenxa yalokho ngokwengxenye yehlobo lase-Asia elifudumele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iJapane, iSouth Korea, neTaiwan bagcwalisa kabusha izinqolobane zabo. Khonamanjalo, isomiso eLatin America, esithola uhhafu wamandla aso ezikhungweni zokuphehla ugesi ophehlwa ngamanzi, sithinte isidingo segesi. Ngenxa yalokho, ngaphezu konyaka, isidingo se-LNG esifundeni sicishe saphindeka kabili.
Ukunikezwa kwe-LNG akuhlangabezananga nesidingo esikhulayo. Uhlu olude lokuphazamiseka okuncane kuthinte ukukhiqizwa komhlaba jikelele. Okunye ukuphuma kukagesi kudalwe ukulibaziseka kokulungiswa ngesikhathi salo bhubhane.
I-Asia ayifuni ukwabelana ngegesi neYurophu.
Yonke i-LNG iya e-Asia, ngakho-ke abathengi baseYurophu abayitholi neze. Manje ukungeniswa kwegesi eYurophu kungaphansi ngama-20% kunangonyaka odlule. Amasheya angaphansi ngama-25% kunesilinganiso sesikhathi eside. Ukukhiqizwa kwegesi kwehle eBrithani naseNetherlands. Abahlaziyi bebelindele ukuthi iGazprom yaseRussia, ehlinzeka ngengxenye yesithathu yegesi yaseYurophu, yenze lo mehluko, kepha inkampani ayithengisanga uphethiloli owengeziwe emakethe. Abanye basola ukuthi ifuna ukusheshisa ukwethulwa kweNord Stream 2, iphayiphi enkulu yegesi.
IYurophu ithintekile yisimo sezulu nangezinye izindlela. Enyakatho-ntshonalanga yezwekazi, umoya wawumi, okwanciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi. Isibonelo, eJalimane, emasontweni amabili okuqala kaSepthemba, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kwakungu-50% ngaphansi kwesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinsiza zaseYurophu zivame ukusebenzisa amalahle amaningi lapho amanani kagesi ephezulu. Kepha amanani amalahle nawo asondele emazingeni aphezulu kakhulu ngenxa yesidingo sikagesi nezingqinamba zokukhiqiza. Izindleko zezimvume zekhabhoni zaseYurophu, ezinikeza umnikazi inani elithile lamagesi abamba ukushisa, nazo ziphula amarekhodi.
Amazwe ayanda ukuthekelisa.
Imakethe yegesi yaseMelika isabele ezidingweni zomhlaba jikelele. Ngesikhathi sika-2021-H1, izwe lakhipha cishe okweshumi komkhiqizo walo wegesi wemvelo, lenyuka ngama-42% kusukela onyakeni owedlule. Kodwa-ke, noma ngabe i-US ikhiqize kakhulu ekhaya, ngeke isize ukulinganisa imakethe ye-LNG yamazwe omhlaba. Amafektri kagesi eMelika cishe asebenza ngokugcwele. Kuyafana nasezitshalweni zokukhipha uketshezi kwamanye amazwe amakhulu akhiqiza igesi njenge-Australia neQatar. Ukunwetshwa kwezitshalo ze-LNG kungenzeka (iQatar ihlela ukukhulisa amandla ayo ngo-50%), kepha kuzothatha iminyaka eminingi. Yini engasiza imakethe esikhathini esifushane? Okokuqala, elinye lamathuba lingena esikhundleni. IYurophu isivele ishisa amalahle amaningi kunangesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. Ezinye izikhungo zamandla kagesi ePakistan naseBangladeshi zisukile ku-LNG zaya ku-oyela. Okwesibili, ukwanda kwempahla evela eRussia. Kepha akucaci ukuthi iRF ingakhiqiza kangakanani. Okwesithathu, isimo sezulu sifudumele. Kodwa-ke, izazi zezulu zibikezela ubusika obubandayo, ngakho-ke amanani egesi mancane ukuthi ehle.
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