Izimakethe zezimali zase-US zihlukumezeka kakhulu kusukela ngo-2016, njengoba abaxoxisana be-European Union bevula uhlelo lukahulumeni wase-UK uBrexit
UFebhuwari 2018 ukhombise ukuba ngenye yezinyanga eziguquguqukayo nezinesiphithiphithi ezimakethe zezimali, okubonwe ngazo eminyakeni eminingi. Inyanga isivaliwe ngokuwa okukhulu kakhulu ezimakethe ezinkulu zamasheya (i-DJIA ne-SPX), okubonakale eminyakeni emibili. Ukuwa kukaFebhuwari kwe-DJIA kungu -4.28%, i-SPX ibhalise ukuwa okungu -3.89%. Ngisho nenkomba ye-NASDAQ, eyeqe ubukhulu bokulungiswa kwemakethe ehlupheke ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari, ivale inyanga ngokuwa kwe -1.86%. Zonke izimakethe ezintathu zisabhalisa ukunyuka ngo-2018, ukuphrinta kwe-NASDAQ ngonyaka kuze kube manje kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-5.3%, kodwa ngaphandle kokungabaza, abatshalizimali ezimakethe zezimali (mhlawumbe emhlabeni jikelele), bahlulekile ukubuyisa ithemba labo le-2017, ngemuva kwe-selloff wazibonela ekuqaleni kwenyanga.
Uma abatshalizimali bebefuna usihlalo omusha weFed uJerome Powell ukubanikeza isizathu sokubhida amanani entengo noma ukubamba izimali, khona-ke bazobe beshiywe izolo bethuka ubufakazi bakhe obuthile obubhekiswe kuphaneli leNdlu, lapho aphakamise khona ukuthi iFed / I-FOMC izonamathela ohlelweni lwayo lokukhuphula inzalo kathathu ngonyaka ka-2018. Kodwa-ke, lokho kunganwetshwa kufinyelele kwabane, uma yena nekomidi lakhe bekholelwa ukuthi umnotho wase-USA uqine ngokwanele ukumelana nolu chungechunge lokukhuphuka. Abenzi bemakethe nabathengi abakhulu bezitoko, manje sebependwe ekhoneni; izinkampani azikwazi ukusebenzisa imali eshibhile ukuzibandakanya ezitokweni ezithengwayo ukuze zithumele amanani aphezulu ngokususelwa ekushodeni, azikwazi ukukhipha kalula lokho ezikuphethe, azikwazi ukuboleka ngokushibhile ukuqagela, amabhizinisi ngeke esakwazi ukufinyelela ngokomlando ezezimali ezishibhile ngakho inzuzo yabo izokwehla.
Izindaba zokuthi i-USA GDP ilahlekelwe yisibikezelo, ingena ngo-2.3% we-Q4, ngeke ibe nenduduzo, uma kubhekwa ukuthi i-YoY eyenziwe ngonyaka, isibalo se-GDP sivele sibikezelwe ku-2.5%. Ukusetshenziswa komuntu kuwele ku-Q4, kwaphakama izinhlu ezingaphenduliwe nophethiloli, okwenza amanani entengo ehla ngokuhwebelana kwamandla. Idatha yakamuva yokuthengisa yasekhaya yase-USA inikeze ukushaqeka; okulindelwe bekungukunyuka kuka-0.5% ngemuva kokuwa kwesizini ngoDisemba, uJanuwari ubhalise ukuwa okungu -4.7%, okwenza ukuwa kweYoY kwaba -1.7%. Nakulokhu futhi, imethrikhi enjalo ingasebenza njengesibonakaliso sokuthi uma abahlaziyi nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bengabheka ngaphansi kwebhonethi yemoto yezomnotho yase-USA, bangathola ukuthi injini ayisebenzi kabi.
Abafundi abajwayelekile bamabhulogi ethu namakholomu bazokwazi ukuthi sihlale sixwayisa amaklayenti maqondana nesimo seBrexit esiqhubekayo nesenzeka, nokuthi sizoqala kanjani ukwenza inani le-sterling (elijabulele ukukhula ngo-2017) njengoba iwashi liza ku Mashi 2018 phuma. Uhulumeni wase-UK manje akaziphikisi nje kuphela, kepha uqala nokuhlanganyela ezimpini zangaphakathi, zangaphakathi. Isiphakamiso somngcele wezohwebo e-Ireland, yindlovu esegumbini, okufakazela ukuthi kunzima ukukuziba nokukugwema.
UMichel Barnier, umphathi omkhulu wezingxoxo ngokombono we-EU, wethule umqulu wohlaka lwezomthetho lwe-EU ngoLwesithathu, oqukethe imithetho kaBrexit, uNdunankulu wase-UK ayichitha ngokushesha. UMnu Barnier waphinda futhi wakhumbuza abaphathi base-UK ukuthi babenezinyanga eziyishumi nantathu kuphela ukuhlela ukuphuma kwabo. Ngaso sonke isikhathi usomaqhinga, isethulo sakhe sigweme intukuthelo nokukhungatheka, incazelo engeke isetshenziswe kowe-UKPM uJohn Major, owadabula ukwehluleka kweqembu lakhe leTory ukuhlinzeka ngemephu yomgwaqo ehambisanayo yokuphuma kuze kube manje. I-GBP / USD yehle cishe ngo-1%, ngenkathi i-sterling yehle iqhathaniswa nabanye ontanga.
UKUQALA
I-GBP / USD ithengiswa ngendlela ejwayelekile yansuku zonke, iphrinta amasonto amahlanu nge-intraday ephansi engu-1.375, ivala usuku phansi cishe ngo-0.8%, ngenkathi yephula i-S2, ku-1.375. Umbhangqwana omkhulu wemali manje usulahlekelwe ama-pips angama-450, selokhu athumela unyaka wawo ukuba ube phezulu esontweni lesithathu likaJanuwari. I-100 DMA ibonwa ku-1.354, futhi ingaqondiswa, uma ukuthambekela kwe-bearish kuqhubeka. Iphawundi lase-UK lehle ngaphezu kwe-1% uma kuqhathaniswa ne-yen, i-GBP / JPY ishayeka ezingeni lesithathu lokuxhaswa kanye ne-200 DMA, ivala nge-circa 1.3% ku-146.8. I-Yen ibonakale isebenza njengendawo ephephile uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga abaningi, ngesikhathi sokuhweba sosuku.
IDOLELA LASEMelika
I-USD / JPY ithengiswe ngomkhuba omncane wansuku zonke, isongela ukuwela ezingeni lesibili lokuxhaswa ngesikhathi seseshini yaseNew York, ivala usuku phansi cishe ngo-0.5% ngosuku ngo-106.6. I-USD / CHF ithengiswe ngomkhuba obanzi wansuku zonke, yephula i-R2, ivala cishe i-0.7%, ngenhla komugqa wesibili wokumelana no-R2, ku-0.944. I-franc yaseSwitzerland yehle kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa neningi lontanga bayo ngezikhathi zeLwesithathu. I-USD / CAD iphinde yahweba ngomkhuba wansuku zonke, inyuka nge-R1, isongela ukwephula u-R2, ivale cishe u-0.5% ngo-1.283.
EURO
I-EUR / GBP ithengiswe ebangeni elibanzi, elihamba phambili nsuku zonke, lenyuka liye ku-R2, livala usuku kuze kube ngu-0.7% ku-0.886, lifinyelele ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu elibonwe ngesonto futhi ekugcineni lephula i-100 DMA. I-EUR / USD yehle kakhulu kusukela ukuphrinta unyaka kuze kube yimanje ngoFebhuwari 16, intengo yehle kusuka ku-circa 1.25 kuye ku-1.219. I-EUR / JPY ithengiswa ngomkhuba obanzi wansuku zonke, iwela ezingeni lesithathu lokuxhaswa kwe-S3, ivala cishe i-1.1% ku-130.05, isondele ekuphuleni isibambo esibucayi se-130.00.
GOLD
I-XAU / USD ithengiswe ngobubanzi obuncane ngokwedlulele, emaceleni phakathi nezikhathi zokuhweba zosuku, kujikeleza iphuzu le-pivot yansuku zonke, kubhaliswa inani eliphakeme lama-circa 1,318 ngesikhathi sokuhweba sosuku kanye ne-1,317 ephansi, inani lapho insimbi eyigugu ivaliwe khona ukuhweba kosuku ku. Intengo isengaphezulu kwe-100 DMA ebonwe ku-1,300, okuyithagethi enganakekelwa, inikezwe umuzwa we-bearish nomkhuba, obonwe eshadini nsuku zonke kusukela maphakathi noFebhuwari.
ISITHOMBE SOKUFANANA KWEZIMPAWU ZOKULINGANA FEBRUARY 28.
• I-DJIA ivale u-1.50%.
• I-SPX ivale u-1.11%.
• I-FTSE 100 ivale u-0.69%.
• I-DAX ivale u-0.44%.
• I-CAC ivale u-0.44%.
IZENZAKALO ZEKHALENDA EZISEMQOKA ZOMNOTHO NGO-MARCH 1.
• CHF. Umkhiqizo wasekhaya omningi (YoY) (4Q).
• I-GBP. Isikweletu Se-Net Consumer (JAN).
• i-EUR. Umkhiqizo Wangaphakathi Womhlaba Wonke wase-Italy (YoY) (2017).
• USD. I-PCE Core (YoY) (JAN).
• USD. Ukukhiqiza kwe-ISM (FEB).
• USD. Ukuqashwa kwe-ISM (FEB).
• I-JPY. Inkomba Yamanani Abathengi baseTokyo (YoY) (FEB).
IKHALENDA LIHAMBISANA NOKUQAPHA NGOKUSEDELA NGOLWESINE NGOMHLA KA-1 MARCH.
I-franc yaseSwitzerland ithole ukuthengiswa phakathi nezikhathi zokuhweba zangoLwesithathu, izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP zihlelelwe ukukhishwa ngoLwesine, kanti isibikezelo sizoba yi-1.7% YoY kuze kufike ku-Q4. Mayelana nokuthi lesi sibikezelo esiseduze sivelise noma cha inani le-CHF aliqinisekile, kodwa-ke, njengoba umphumela ukhishwa, inani le-franc yaseSwitzerland lingahlolwa. Kukhishwa ama-PMI amaningana akhiqiza i-Eurozone ahlobene ne: Italy, france, Germany kanye ne-Eurozone yokuhweba ebanzi, ne-UK yokukhiqiza i-PMI nayo iyakhishwa. Enye imininingwane yase-Europe yenothi iphathelene nezibalo zakamuva zokubolekwa kwabathengi base-UK nokuvunyelwa kwempahla.
Uma nje izimakethe zase-USA zivulekile sizokwamukela imali engenayo yomuntu siqu kanye nemininingwane yokusebenzisa imali yomuntu siqu. Njengoba kunikezwe uvalo lwabatshali zimali jikelele oluboniswe ekuqaleni kwenyanga, obekugxile ekwehleni kwamandla emali futhi ikakhulukazi ukwehla kwamandla emali, lawa mamethrikhi angabhekwa ngokucophelela nganoma yiziphi izimpawu zobuthakathaka besakhiwo emandleni abathengi, noma isifiso sabo sokusebenzisa. Ukufundwa kwakamuva kwe-ISM kokubili kokukhiqiza nokuqasha e-USA kuzophinde kushicilelwe, amamethrikhi abalulekile asezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu (ngokomthelela) kubatshalizimali baseMelika kune, ngokwesibonelo, ukufundwa kwe-PMI.
« Izimali ze-US ziyawa futhi i-USD iyenyuka, njengoba abatshalizimali behumusha ubufakazi bukaJerome Powell njengo-hawkish Ukhetho lwase-Italy 2018 lusasele izinsuku ezimbalwa. Obani abakhethiweyo abakhulu nokuthi i-EUR ingathinteka kanjani? »
