Ukuhweba ngezilinganiso ezihambayo, ingabe kuyisiprofetho esizigcwalisayo noma empeleni izinkomba ezinamandla?
Abadayisi abaningi emphakathini wethu bazokhumbula kahle ngesikhathi baba nentshisekelo ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe. Abaningi bazofakazela iqiniso lokuthi kwakuyizilinganiso ezihambayo ezafinyelela isithakazelo sabo kuqala. Mhlawumbe besibeke isilinganiso esinyakazayo sezinsuku ezingama-21 eshadini lansuku zonke futhi sabona ukuthi intengo isabela kanjani lapho ihlangabezana nalesi sithiyo esibonakalayo. Ngabe idlulile kuyo, yanqatshwa intengo, yaya eceleni ngobubanzi?
Sibe sesikhuphukela ekubhekeni kwesilinganiso esihambayo sezinsuku eziyikhulu, noma esingamakhulu amabili (i-SMA) ngemuva kokuhlala sibona kukhulunywa ngaso ezihlokweni ezishicilelwe yi-Bloomberg noma i-Reuters. Sasivame ukubona izingcaphuno kuyizindatshana ezikhonjwe abahlaziyi abaphakamisa ukuthi intengo yayiseduze, noma ababesanda kudlula kuyo, le migqa ebonakalayo edwetshwe kumashadi ethu. Lalisho ukuthini?
Ukuqhubekela phambili kwemvelo okulandelayo ukubeka okuningana kwalokhu okumaphakathi okuhambayo eshadini le-vanilla elinokuncane okunye kulo ngaphandle kwentengo emelwe ibha noma umugqa. Sibe sesibona izilinganiso ezihambayo eziningi eziwela eshadini lethu lansuku zonke. Siqaphela i-SMA ephansi yezinsuku ezingama-21 ewela i-50 SMA njalo. Bese kuvulwa ukukhanya emiqondweni yethu futhi siyazibuza ukuthi singakwazi yini ukwengeza isilinganiso esinyakazayo sezinsuku eziyi-10 kuthingo lwethu lwezinkomba ezinemibala. Sibe sesiqaphela ukuthi njengoba intengo ikhuphuka noma yehla, ukuze ifane ne-bullish noma i-bearish sentiment, i-20 yeqa amashumi amahlanu kulokho okubonakala kuwumsebenzi ohlobene.
Isitobhi sethu esilandelayo 'ukwenza kube nzima' i-SMA yezinsuku eziyi-10 ukuthintwa. Ake sithi siyenza i-EMA ngokuphambene nesilinganiso esihambayo esilula. Manje siyaqaphela ukuthi ukwehlukana, kude nesilinganiso esiphezulu esinyakazayo, kuba bukhali nakakhulu uma sisebenzisa inguqulo ye-exponential. Kuleli qophelo kumetamorphosis yethu yabadayisi lapho siqala khona ukuqaphela ukuthi ama-avareji ahambayo empeleni angaba amathuluzi anamandla uma esetshenziswa ngendlela efanele. Futhi kukhona okunye ukusetshenziswa okubalulekile okungenzeka ukuthi kubusa ukusetshenziswa kwazo ngokuphindaphindiwe nokubheka isenzo samanani kanye nokwehlukana kwayo - lapho ama-oda angase ahlanganiswe khona.
Umbono esinawo enhlokweni yethu yabadayisi bezikhungo ukuthi baqhuba ibhizinisi labo lokuhweba, lapho bethenga futhi bethengisa amapheya emali, ngendlela efanayo neyethu, kodwa ukuthi banamabhange abaqaphi abazohweba ngawo kanye nama-akhawunti amakhulu abahweba ngawo. Lo mbono unephutha elikhulu njengoba izindlela zokuhweba ezisetshenziswa abadayisi bezikhungo zihluke kakhulu kulezo ezenziwa abadayisi bezitolo.
Mancane amathuba okuthi abahambisi bemakethe kanye nabenzi bazosebenzisa inhlanganisela ye-MACD, PSAR, DMI, ADX kanye ne-RSI ukuze benze izinqumo zabo, cishe ama-oda abo; thenga, ume futhi uthathe ama-oda omkhawulo wenzuzo, uzodonsela ekubhekeni izinombolo eziyindilinga kanye nezilinganiso ezihambayo ezibalulekile ezifana nama-SMA ayi-100 noma angama-200. Abadayisi bezinga lesikhungo bazoba nama-oda amakhulu azungeze izibambo eziyinhloko, njengoba sibonile muva nje nge-AUD/USD ezingeni elibalulekile elibalulekile le-90.000. Bazoba nama-oda amaningi ahlanganiswe eduze kwama-SMA angu-100 nama-200.
Izilinganiso ezihambayo; umsuka wabo, ukusetshenziswa kanye nokubala
Izilinganiso ezihambayo zishelela idatha yentengo ukuze yakhe inkomba elandelayo yethrendi. Ababikezeli isiqondiso samanani, kodwa bachaza isiqondiso samanje nge-lag. Izilinganiso ezihambayo zibambezeleka ngenxa yokuthi zisekelwe ezintengo ezidlule. Naphezu kwalokhu kubambezeleka, ama-avareji ahambayo asiza isenzo sentengo esishelelayo futhi ahlunge umsindo. Futhi bakha amabhulokhi wokwakha kwezinye izinkomba eziningi zobuchwepheshe kanye nokumbondelana, njengeBollinger Bands kanye ne-MACD. Izinhlobo ezimbili ezidume kakhulu zezilinganiso ezihambayo iSimple Moving Average (SMA) kanye ne-Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Lawa ma-avareji anyakazayo angasetshenziswa ukukhomba isiqondiso sethrendi noma kuchazwe ukusekelwa okungaba khona kanye namazinga okumelana.
Isilinganiso esihambayo esilula senziwa ngokubala intengo emaphakathi yesivikelo ngenani elithile lezikhathi. Izilinganiso ezihambayo eziningi zisekelwe ezintengo zokuvala. Isilinganiso esihambayo sezinsuku ezi-5 siyisamba sezinsuku ezinhlanu zamanani okuvala ahlukaniswe amahlanu. Njengoba igama layo lisho, isilinganiso esinyakazayo isilinganiso esinyakazayo. Idatha endala iyehliswa njengoba idatha entsha iza itholakala. Lokhu kubangela ukuthi isilinganiso sihambe esikalini sesikhathi. Ngezansi isibonelo sesilinganiso esinyakazayo sezinsuku ezi-5 sivela ezinsukwini ezintathu.
Imiqondo yokuhweba ye-crossover emaphakathi
I-crossover enyakazayo-average yenzeka lapho kuhlelwa izilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo ngayinye ngokusekelwe kumazinga ahlukene okushelela, iminonjana yalezi zilinganiso ezihambayo ziyawela. Ayibikezeli isiqondiso sesikhathi esizayo kodwa ibonisa izitayela. Le nkomba isebenzisa izilinganiso ezihambayo ezimbili (noma ngaphezulu), isilinganiso esihamba kancane kanye nesilinganiso esihambayo esisheshayo. I-avareji ehamba ngokushesha iyisilinganiso esihambayo sesikhathi esifushane. Ezimakethe zokuphela kosuku, isibonelo, kungaba yinkathi yezinsuku ezi-5, 10 noma ezingu-25 kuyilapho isilinganiso esihamba kancane siphakathi nendawo noma isikhathi eside esimaphakathi (isb. 50, 100 noma 200 izinsuku). Isilinganiso esifushane esihambayo siyashesha ngoba sicabangela kuphela izintengo esikhathini esifushane futhi ngenxa yalokho sisebenza kakhulu ekushintsheni kwentengo yansuku zonke. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-avareji ehamba phambili yesikhathi eside ithathwa njengehamba kancane njengoba ihlanganisa amanani esikhathini eside futhi iyaxega. Kodwa-ke, ivamise ukushelela imisindo yamanani evamise ukuvela ngezilinganiso ezihambayo zesikhathi esifushane.
Isilinganiso esihambayo sivamise ukumbozwa kumashadi entengo ukukhombisa amathrendi entengo. I-crossover yenzeka lapho isilinganiso esihambayo esisheshayo (okungukuthi, isilinganiso senkathi esifushane esihambayo) siwela isilinganiso esihamba kancane (okungukuthi, isilinganiso esihambayo senkathi ende). Ngamanye amazwi, kulapho isikhathi esifushane umugqa omaphakathi onyakazayo weqa umugqa omaphakathi onyakazayo. Ekuhwebeni leli phuzu lomhlangano lisetshenziselwa ukungena (ukuthenga noma ukuthengisa) noma ukuphuma (ukuthengisa noma ukuthenga) emakethe.
Lapho kusetshenziswa khona okumaphakathi okunesisindo esilinganayo ngezinye izikhathi kubizwa ngokuthi i- simple moving-average (SMA) crossover. I-crossover enjalo ingasetshenziselwa ukukhombisa ushintsho kumkhuba futhi ingasetshenziswa ukuqala ukuhweba ohlelweni lokuhweba lomeluleki ochwepheshe oluzenzakalelayo.
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