UFebhu 14 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5392 • Amazwana Off Kumnotho wase-UK Ingabe Indoda Egulayo YaseYurophu
Abahlaziyi abaningi bezimakethe nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bazoba nomuzwa ojulile wokukhululeka njengoba izindaba ziqale izolo kusihlwa maqondana nokuqinisekiswa kukaMoody ukuthi isilinganiso se-Aaa sase-UK siyabuyekezwa. Akukona ukuthi abahlaziyi nabahlaziyi ekugcineni banokuthile abangaxoxa ngakho, ngaphezu kokulandisa nezinkinga zaseGreece ezingapheli.
Iqiniso lokuthi 'ukungcwatshwa kwekhanda' lase-UK nokusebenzisa zonke izindlela zokubalwa kwezitayela ze-Enron ukuze ubalekele ukuhlolisiswa nokuzikhandla okukuso sekudaluliwe ekugcineni. Njengomsubathi othola izaba zokwehluleka ukuya emihlanganweni yokuhlolwa kwezidakamizwa i-UK ekugcineni ikhonjiwe futhi umphumela ulindelekile…
Kwakunomqondo wokungenakugwenywa ukungabaza ngokulinganiswa kwakukhathazeka, iFrance yayiqinisile ukubuza ukuthi kungani i-UK igweme ukunakwa isikhathi eside kangaka, i-USA empeleni yehliswa ngo-2011 ngenxa 'yezizathu' ezingafani neze naleyo uMoody anayo kuqokomise i-UK ngokugcinwa; i-UK inamandla amancane kakhulu okukhula kwangempela futhi inesikweletu esikhulu kakhulu. Kepha inkinga yesikweletu idinga ukuhlolwa okusondele njengoba kwezinye izindlela i-UK iyicala elikhethekile uma liqhathaniswa nomakhelwane baseYurophu.
Njengoba kungabonakala ngokusobala kule ndatshana exhumene isikweletu sase-UK kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso se-GDP ukunisela iso.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Akukhona kuphela ukuthi ukusilela kwe-UK kusesekubi kakhulu eYurophu kepha isikweletu esihlanganisiwe simangalisa ngempela. Abathetheleli abaningi bazozama ukufuna ukuthi isikweletu somuntu siqu kumele sihlukaniswe, kanjalo nemali yokutakula ukuze kuthengwe amasheya emabhange ase-UK kanye nemalimboleko yokuyixhasa, kanye nemijikelezo ye-QE yokuthenga izimpahla eziningi ezingenamsoco, kepha lokho akugezi . Ngamagama alula, njengoba iqoqo elingavundile lamatshe anomoya amile entshonalanga yeYurophu nasempumalanga ye-USA, i-UK impela iqoqo lamatshe endaweni enzima.
Akukho lapho kufakwe khona uthando lwesikweletu ngaphezu kwe-UK, akukho lapho kudideke khona impumelelo yezohwebo nekhono lokuboleka imali ngaphezulu kwezakhamizi namabhizinisi ase-UK. Ukuthenga izindlu, ngemali yabanye abantu, ngokusebenzisa imali yomuntu uqobo kuye kwaba ngumdlalo kazwelonke nokuthi leso sikweletu kufanele sifakwe esikweletini esihlanganisiwe uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo se-GDP esingu-900% +.
Kungani kufanele ifakwe? Ngoba kukhombisa ngokweqiniso izikweletu zababolekisi kanye namazinga ezikweletu, lelo zinga elimangalisayo lesikweletu ngeke 'lixolelwe' futhi ngokuxhaswa kwamandla emali leso sikweletu kuzothatha isikhathi eside ukukhokha. Njengomnotho ofana ne-USA, (70% uncike ekuthengiseni abathengi), leso sikweletu sizothatha impilo yonke ukukhokha ngesikhathi sokuqhuma kwesixakaxaka.
Ukukhululwa ngesihluku okushadiswe ngushansela wase-UK kwehlulekile, iqiniso lokuthi akanalo icebo B kubangelwa kakhulu ukungazi kwemibono nobuzwe obuncane ngaphezu kwesifiso sangempela sokululama. UGeorge Osborne uzame ukuphendula inkulumo efanayo ngenkathi exoxwa namhlanje ekuseni, "Lesi sexwayiso sisebenza njengesaziso sokuthi kufanele sibhekane nezikweletu zethu", manje udidanisa isikweletu nokuziqhenya kwakhe ngale nkinga?
Futhi angashumayela kanjani ngesikweletu ngenkathi ibhange laseNgilandi, mhlawumbe nesibusiso sakhe, selikhule ukwehla ngamanani cishe ngama- £ 125 billion ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule? Lokho akuhlanganisi isiyalo sezimali kanye nenqubomgomo yemali yokuqapha ekhonjiswa njalo njengendlela yokululama. Njengoba lesi sixhumanisi sifakazela i-UKs QE., Noma njengoba manje sebethanda ukuyibiza ngokuthi “izikimu zokuthengwa kwempahla” inyuke ngo- £ 125 billion kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2011.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/assetpurchases.htm
Phakathi kukaMashi 2009 noJanuwari 2010, i-MPC igunyaze ukuthengwa kwezimpahla ezibiza u- £ 200 billion, ikakhulukazi ama-gilts - isikweletu sikaHulumeni wase-UK. I-MPC ivotele ukuqala ukuthengwa okwengeziwe kwama- £ 75 billion ngo-Okthoba 2011 futhi, emuva kwalokho, emhlanganweni wayo ngoFebhuwari 2012 iKomidi linqume ukuthenga u- £ 50 bn ukuletha ukuthengwa kwempahla ephelele ku- £ 325 bn.
I-BoE, eholwa yi-govt. ngaphandle kokuzibusa kwayo kungasebenzisa noma yiziphi izindlela zokuzikhethela ezikuthandayo futhi zimemezele ukuthi lokhu kuthengwa kwempahla kuzungeza uhlelo lokubhanga, kepha, kuyanezela ezingeni eliphelele lomthwalo wesikweletu futhi ama-ejensi wokulinganisa ngeke akhohliswe. Amabhange ase-UK adinga imali ethe xaxa ukuze ahlale ewuketshezi ukuze agweme ukukhokha izikweletu futhi athathe izinyathelo zokuhambisana nemithetho yokwanela kwemali yaseBasel okuthi, yize ikhahlelwe otshanini obude, isondele kakhulu.
Uhlelo lwebhange lwase-UK lubone ukwanda kwe-QE nge-circa 62.5% ezinyangeni ezingaphezu kwezine nje kuphela kepha abekho abahlaziyi bezimakethe abathole kulo myalezo othusayo lokhu bekukhombisa, ngenhlanhla ama-ejensi esikweletu ekugcineni aseqalile ukusithwebula isithombe sokuthi i-UK inengqondo futhi ivikelekile ( encane C) ukuphatha izindaba zayo ngokungcono kune-PIIGS.
Isici salutary sokwambulwa kukaMoody kungaba ukuthi i-UK ingemuva kwejika, ezomnotho ze-PIIGS zadalulwa esikhathini esithile emuva, i-UK ingahle iphume kuphela ekuphikeni nasekubuyiseleni. Kepha ngoShansela obonakala edidekile ngesikweletu nokusilela, futhi ongakwazi ukuqonda ukuthi ukuzitika ngama- £ 125 bl we-QE ezinyangeni ezine kwenza inhlekisa ngobuhlakani bezimali, lokho kululama kungahle kuhamba kancane hhayi ngaphambi kokuba i-UK ibone okubi kakhulu okubambezele ukwehla kwezomnotho okuphindwe kabili.
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Umnotho wase-UK Uyindoda Egulayo YaseYurophu
UFebhu 14 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5392 • Amazwana Off Kumnotho wase-UK Ingabe Indoda Egulayo YaseYurophu
Abahlaziyi abaningi bezimakethe nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bazoba nomuzwa ojulile wokukhululeka njengoba izindaba ziqale izolo kusihlwa maqondana nokuqinisekiswa kukaMoody ukuthi isilinganiso se-Aaa sase-UK siyabuyekezwa. Akukona ukuthi abahlaziyi nabahlaziyi ekugcineni banokuthile abangaxoxa ngakho, ngaphezu kokulandisa nezinkinga zaseGreece ezingapheli.
Iqiniso lokuthi 'ukungcwatshwa kwekhanda' lase-UK nokusebenzisa zonke izindlela zokubalwa kwezitayela ze-Enron ukuze ubalekele ukuhlolisiswa nokuzikhandla okukuso sekudaluliwe ekugcineni. Njengomsubathi othola izaba zokwehluleka ukuya emihlanganweni yokuhlolwa kwezidakamizwa i-UK ekugcineni ikhonjiwe futhi umphumela ulindelekile…
Kwakunomqondo wokungenakugwenywa ukungabaza ngokulinganiswa kwakukhathazeka, iFrance yayiqinisile ukubuza ukuthi kungani i-UK igweme ukunakwa isikhathi eside kangaka, i-USA empeleni yehliswa ngo-2011 ngenxa 'yezizathu' ezingafani neze naleyo uMoody anayo kuqokomise i-UK ngokugcinwa; i-UK inamandla amancane kakhulu okukhula kwangempela futhi inesikweletu esikhulu kakhulu. Kepha inkinga yesikweletu idinga ukuhlolwa okusondele njengoba kwezinye izindlela i-UK iyicala elikhethekile uma liqhathaniswa nomakhelwane baseYurophu.
Njengoba kungabonakala ngokusobala kule ndatshana exhumene isikweletu sase-UK kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso se-GDP ukunisela iso.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Akukhona kuphela ukuthi ukusilela kwe-UK kusesekubi kakhulu eYurophu kepha isikweletu esihlanganisiwe simangalisa ngempela. Abathetheleli abaningi bazozama ukufuna ukuthi isikweletu somuntu siqu kumele sihlukaniswe, kanjalo nemali yokutakula ukuze kuthengwe amasheya emabhange ase-UK kanye nemalimboleko yokuyixhasa, kanye nemijikelezo ye-QE yokuthenga izimpahla eziningi ezingenamsoco, kepha lokho akugezi . Ngamagama alula, njengoba iqoqo elingavundile lamatshe anomoya amile entshonalanga yeYurophu nasempumalanga ye-USA, i-UK impela iqoqo lamatshe endaweni enzima.
Akukho lapho kufakwe khona uthando lwesikweletu ngaphezu kwe-UK, akukho lapho kudideke khona impumelelo yezohwebo nekhono lokuboleka imali ngaphezulu kwezakhamizi namabhizinisi ase-UK. Ukuthenga izindlu, ngemali yabanye abantu, ngokusebenzisa imali yomuntu uqobo kuye kwaba ngumdlalo kazwelonke nokuthi leso sikweletu kufanele sifakwe esikweletini esihlanganisiwe uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo se-GDP esingu-900% +.
Kungani kufanele ifakwe? Ngoba kukhombisa ngokweqiniso izikweletu zababolekisi kanye namazinga ezikweletu, lelo zinga elimangalisayo lesikweletu ngeke 'lixolelwe' futhi ngokuxhaswa kwamandla emali leso sikweletu kuzothatha isikhathi eside ukukhokha. Njengomnotho ofana ne-USA, (70% uncike ekuthengiseni abathengi), leso sikweletu sizothatha impilo yonke ukukhokha ngesikhathi sokuqhuma kwesixakaxaka.
Ukukhululwa ngesihluku okushadiswe ngushansela wase-UK kwehlulekile, iqiniso lokuthi akanalo icebo B kubangelwa kakhulu ukungazi kwemibono nobuzwe obuncane ngaphezu kwesifiso sangempela sokululama. UGeorge Osborne uzame ukuphendula inkulumo efanayo ngenkathi exoxwa namhlanje ekuseni, "Lesi sexwayiso sisebenza njengesaziso sokuthi kufanele sibhekane nezikweletu zethu", manje udidanisa isikweletu nokuziqhenya kwakhe ngale nkinga?
Futhi angashumayela kanjani ngesikweletu ngenkathi ibhange laseNgilandi, mhlawumbe nesibusiso sakhe, selikhule ukwehla ngamanani cishe ngama- £ 125 billion ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule? Lokho akuhlanganisi isiyalo sezimali kanye nenqubomgomo yemali yokuqapha ekhonjiswa njalo njengendlela yokululama. Njengoba lesi sixhumanisi sifakazela i-UKs QE., Noma njengoba manje sebethanda ukuyibiza ngokuthi “izikimu zokuthengwa kwempahla” inyuke ngo- £ 125 billion kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2011.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/assetpurchases.htm
Phakathi kukaMashi 2009 noJanuwari 2010, i-MPC igunyaze ukuthengwa kwezimpahla ezibiza u- £ 200 billion, ikakhulukazi ama-gilts - isikweletu sikaHulumeni wase-UK. I-MPC ivotele ukuqala ukuthengwa okwengeziwe kwama- £ 75 billion ngo-Okthoba 2011 futhi, emuva kwalokho, emhlanganweni wayo ngoFebhuwari 2012 iKomidi linqume ukuthenga u- £ 50 bn ukuletha ukuthengwa kwempahla ephelele ku- £ 325 bn.
I-BoE, eholwa yi-govt. ngaphandle kokuzibusa kwayo kungasebenzisa noma yiziphi izindlela zokuzikhethela ezikuthandayo futhi zimemezele ukuthi lokhu kuthengwa kwempahla kuzungeza uhlelo lokubhanga, kepha, kuyanezela ezingeni eliphelele lomthwalo wesikweletu futhi ama-ejensi wokulinganisa ngeke akhohliswe. Amabhange ase-UK adinga imali ethe xaxa ukuze ahlale ewuketshezi ukuze agweme ukukhokha izikweletu futhi athathe izinyathelo zokuhambisana nemithetho yokwanela kwemali yaseBasel okuthi, yize ikhahlelwe otshanini obude, isondele kakhulu.
Uhlelo lwebhange lwase-UK lubone ukwanda kwe-QE nge-circa 62.5% ezinyangeni ezingaphezu kwezine nje kuphela kepha abekho abahlaziyi bezimakethe abathole kulo myalezo othusayo lokhu bekukhombisa, ngenhlanhla ama-ejensi esikweletu ekugcineni aseqalile ukusithwebula isithombe sokuthi i-UK inengqondo futhi ivikelekile ( encane C) ukuphatha izindaba zayo ngokungcono kune-PIIGS.
Isici salutary sokwambulwa kukaMoody kungaba ukuthi i-UK ingemuva kwejika, ezomnotho ze-PIIGS zadalulwa esikhathini esithile emuva, i-UK ingahle iphume kuphela ekuphikeni nasekubuyiseleni. Kepha ngoShansela obonakala edidekile ngesikweletu nokusilela, futhi ongakwazi ukuqonda ukuthi ukuzitika ngama- £ 125 bl we-QE ezinyangeni ezine kwenza inhlekisa ngobuhlakani bezimali, lokho kululama kungahle kuhamba kancane hhayi ngaphambi kokuba i-UK ibone okubi kakhulu okubambezele ukwehla kwezomnotho okuphindwe kabili.
moodysUkwehluleka kwe-uk
« I-UK Ekugcineni Yabekwa Ekubonisweni Okungalungile Ngama-Moody's Futhi hhayi Ngaphambi Kwesikhathi Izindiza Zase-USA Ziwa Kuthunyelwe Umqulu Ocindezelekile Wokuzethemba ongu-9-11 »