Idola laseMelika lizohlolisiswa kakhulu ngoLwesithathu, njengoba i-FOMC imemezela isinqumo sayo sokugcina senzalo yango-2017
Ngo-19: 00 pm GMT, ngoLwesithathu Disemba 13, i-FOMC izodalula isinqumo sayo sakamuva mayelana nenani lenzalo ebalulekile ye-USA. Njengamanje ku-1.25% umbono ojwayelekile wokuvumelana, oqoqwe kosomnotho obuzwe yizinhlangano zezindaba iReuters kanye neBloomberg, ukuthi izinga elibalulekile (eliphezulu) lizokhuphukela ku-1.5%. Ukukhuphuka kwesithathu kulo nyaka kuzoqedela ukuzibophezela kwe-FOMC / Fed ukukhuphula amanani kathathu ngo-2017, kuqale inqubo yokwenza izinto ngendlela evamile, okungabona ukukhuphuka kwamazinga ayisisekelo kube ngu-3% ngo-2018.
Kuze kube manje umnotho wase-USA futhi ngaphezu kwalokho izimakethe zokulingana, sebebhekane kahle kakhulu nokwenyuka kwamazinga wenzalo ka-2017, bedelela inkolelo evezwe abanye babahlaziyi yokuthi noma yikuphi ukukhuphuka okukhulu kungalimaza ukuvuselelwa komnotho wase-USA. Isibambiso sikaTrump; ukwenza ukuncishiswa okukhulu kwentela, lokho okungazuzisa kakhulu izinkampani ezicebile, kungaphezu kokuphikisana nemiphumela yenzalo, ngezimakethe ezithile zokulingana, njenge-SPX, eziletha imbuyiselo engaba ngu-20% ngonyaka.
Idola laseMelika alikakuthokozeli ukukhula okunjalo uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga balo abaphambili ngo-2017, yize inani lenzalo likhuphukile uma liqhathaniswa ne-sterling ne-euro ngo-2017 futhi selisondele kufulethi eliqhathaniswa ne-yen. I-GPB / USD yehle yaya ku-1.19 ngoJanuwari, kepha yabuyiselwa esicongweni se-2017 se-circa 1.36, okwamanje esidayisa ngo-approx. 1.33. Ngenkathi ukutholwa kwesilinganiso sephawundi lase-UK kubangelwe ukwenyuka kokushaqeka kwe-brexit, abahlaziyi abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga le-Fed bekungadala inani eliphakeme lamadola. Ngokufanayo i-EUR / USD yehlela cishe ku-1.04 ekuqaleni kuka-2017, yaphakama cishe ku-1.21 ngo-Agasti, ngenkathi i-ECB igcina isilinganiso sazo esikhulu ku-zero futhi yaqhubeka ne-APS yabo (uhlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla).
Ukuzibophezela kukaTrump ekubandakanyeni inkuthazo enkulu yezimali, kufaka phakathi uhlelo lokuvuselela ingqalasizinda olungazange lubonwe emashumini eminyaka, kwaba yisizathu esiyinhloko esethulwe ngabahlaziyi abaningi, ngenxa yokuntuleka kwamandla edola laseMelika. Iphrojekthi ebonakala ngathi yehle kwi-radar yamaRiphabhulikhi njengoba unyaka we-2017 uphela.
Imibono iyahlukahluka ngokuthinta noma yikuphi ukunyuka kwamanani okungaba nawo kudola laseMelika, uma kumenyezelwa ukunyuka ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa. Abanye abahlaziyi banombono wokuthi umphumela usuvele ubaliwe ezimakethe ze-FX, uma kunikezwa ukuthi ngokuqondiswa phambili iFed / FOMC isivele isishumile ngesinqumo ngocingo, ngakho-ke noma yikuphi ukunyakaza kwedola kuzoqukatha. Abanye abahlaziyi banombono wokuthi idola lingakhuphuka, uma isinqumo sokukhuphuka kwamazinga sihambisana nokukhishwa kwabezindaba kwe-hawkish, okuphakamisa ukuqiniswa komgomo wezimali ngo-2018, ngokukhuphuka kwamazinga wenzalo nokuqiniswa kwamanani.
Kodwa-ke, uma kukhulunywa ngokukhohlakala, i-FOMC iphakamisa indlela ethambile, ethambile ngo-2018; ukukhuphula amanani kanye nokuqaqa / ukwehlisa isamba semali yabo engu- $ 4.5 trillion ngendlela eqaphe ngokweqile, khona-ke ukusabela kwedola kungathuliswa. Kumele kuphawulwe futhi ukuthi imizuzu ephelele yomhlangano ngeke ikhishwe kuze kube nguJanuwari.
Njengenjwayelo, abathengisi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi babheke izikhundla zabo zamadola nokuvezwa kwabo ngaphambi, ngesikhathi nangemva nje kokwenziwa kwesinqumo se-FOMC. Zonke izindlela ezijwayelekile zokuphatha ezisebenzayo kufanele zisebenze, zibeke engcupheni futhi zimise ukulungiswa ikakhulukazi.
IZINKOMPHA EZIBALULEKILE ZOMNOTHO ZE-USA.
• Ukukhula kweGDP 3.3%.
• Izinga lentengo ye-2%.
• Isilinganiso senzalo 1.25%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.1%.
• Ukukhula komholo u-3.2%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni v GDP 106%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 54.5.
• Ukuthengisa okuthengiswayo 4.6%.
« USterling ushelele njengoba uNgqongqoshe wase-UK ebuyela emuva esivumelwaneni seBrexit, e-USA equites ibeka elinye irekhodi eliphezulu, ukukhuphuka kwedola laseMelika, njengoba kubukeka sengathi inzalo yenzalo izomenyezelwa ngoLwesithathu IBrexit, umthelela wayo owedlule, wamanje nowesikhathi esizayo kunani lephawundi lase-UK »
