Izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP zomnotho wase-USA zingasiza iFed ukuthi ibeke inkambo yenqubomgomo yayo yezimali ngonyaka we-2018
Ngo-13: 30 ntambama i-GMT ngoLwesithathu wama-29, isibalo samakota samuva se-GDP yonyaka e-USA, sizoshicilelwa. Isibalo samakota wokugcina sikhiqize isibalo sokukhula esingu-3%, umbono wokuvumelana, oqoqwe kosomnotho obuzwe yiReuters, uphakamisa ukukhuphuka kube ngu-3.2% wokukhula kwamuva kweQoQ minyaka yonke.
Njengoba abatshalizimali e-USA begxile kuziphakamiso zentela zikaTrump, ezingavotelwa ngoLwesine eSenate naseFOMC ngenxa yokuhlangana ngoDisemba 12-13, ukuxoxa ngamanani wenzalo nenqubomgomo yezimali, lesi sibalo sakamuva sokukhula kweGDP singagxilisa izingqondo wezihlalo zeFed zesifunda ezakha i-FOMC, njengoba zinquma inqubomgomo yesilinganiso senzalo yango-2018.
Umbono oshubile ngukuthi i-FOMC izomemezela ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo esemqoka e-USA laya ku-1.5%, esiphethweni somhlangano wabo wangoDisemba. Kodwa-ke, ukulandisa kokuqondiswa phambili okuhambisana nanoma yisiphi isimemezelo, maqondana nanoma yiluphi uhlelo lwezikhathi lokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinga ngo-2018, abatshalizimali nabathengisi beFX abazogxila kulo.
Uma isibalo se-GDP singena njengoba kubikezelwe ekukhuleni kuka-3.2%, i-FOMC ingazizwa inamandla okuzibophezela kuhlelo lokukhuphuka kwamanani ngonyaka we-2018, ukukhuphula inani lenzala elibalulekile libe ngu-3% ngo-2018. Uma i-FOMC inyusa rate ngoDisemba, lapho-ke bazobe begcine ukuzibophezela kwabo kowezi-2017 ukukhuphula amahlandla amathathu ngo-2017. Ngenkathi imali ekhishwa yi-FOMC kuyinqubomgomo yemali engeyona eyezimali, bazokwazi ukwesekwa kukanciphiso kwentela ehlongozwayo kaTrump emakethe yezimali, ngakho-ke inqubomgomo yabo yezimali bangakwazi ukukhokhela futhi baqinise umfutho wemali, uma ukukhula kunamandla futhi ukuncishiswa kwentela kwenziwa ngokuphelele.
Uma isibalo se-GDP sakamuva singena njengesibikezelo, noma sishaye isibikezelo, khona-ke amabhangqa emali ye-USD angathola ukwanda njengoba: abatshalizimali, abathengisi nabahlaziyi bazokhuthazeka ekuvuseleleni okuqhubekayo umnotho wase-USA owenzile futhi uphethe ngokuthi umnotho unamandla anele Isimo sezulu uhlelo oluqhubekayo lokukhuphuka luyakhuphuka ngonyaka ka-2018. Abatshalizimali bangaphinde baphethe ngokuthi iFed inendawo yokuqala ukuzikhiphela isamba sayo esilinganiselwe sama- $ 4.5 trillion, esatholwa ngohlelo lwayo lokuthengwa kwempahla (QE) kusukela ngo-2007, njengenkinga yezezimali ezingaphansi kudale ukutheleleka kuzo zonke izimakethe zezezimali.
Ngokwemvelo uma isibikezelo singaphuthelwa yisibikezelo sokukhuphuka sibe ngu-3.2%, khona-ke ababambiqhaza bezimakethe bangacabanga ukuthi i-FOMC kuzodingeka ukuthi yamukele inqubomgomo ebabazekayo ngo-2018, njengoba ukukhula komnotho okuqhubekayo e-USA kungakhiwe ezisekelweni eziqinile idatha enzima yakamuva isiphakamisile.
ISIQINISEKISO ESIBALULEKILE IDATHA LOMNOTHO
• Izinga lokukhula kweGDP 3%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.1%.
• Izinga lentengo ye-2%.
• Isilinganiso senzalo 1.25%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni ku-GDP 106%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 54.6.
• Ukukhula kokuthengisa kwe-Retail 4.6% YoY.
• Ukukhula komholo u-3.2%.
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