Septhemba 26 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4888 • Amazwana Off kwi-Euro is Dead, Phila isikhathi eside nge-Euro
Usuku luzofika lapho zonke izizwe ezwenikazi lethu zizokwakha ubuzalwane baseYurophu. Usuku luyeza lapho sizobona khona i-United States of America ne-United States of Europe, ubuso nobuso, belulekana ngaphesheya kwezilwandle. - UVictor Hugo 1848.
NgoDisemba 1996, imiklamo yamaphepha emali e-euro akhethwa ngemuva komncintiswano. Umkhandlu we-European Monetary Institute (EMI) ukhethe owinile, umculi wase-Austrian uRobert Kalina, “Ubudala Nezitayela ZaseYurophu” kwakuyisihloko. Okuwuphawu kwakungu; amafasitela, amasango, namabhuloho. ULuc Luycx, umculi waseBelgium, uwine umncintiswano obanzi waseYurophu ohlelwe ukuklama izinhlamvu zemali ze-euro. Wakha uhlangothi oluvamile lwaseYurophu. Uhlangothi lukazwelonke luhlukile ezweni ngalinye kulawo ayishumi nambili. I-euro ekuqaleni yaba yimali ejwayelekile yaseYurophu emazweni ayishumi nambili e-European Union. Lokhu bekumane kungukushintsha kwemali okukhulu kunakho konke okwake kwenzeka ezweni lanamuhla lapho imali 'isiqala ukuba khona' ngo-2002.
I-European Union (i-EU) icebile njenge-United States. I-EU iyindawo yokuhweba enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni. I-euro iyimali yesibili enkulu ebekelwe imali kanye nemali yesibili edayiswa kakhulu emhlabeni ngemuva kwedoli laseMelika. Kusukela ngoJulayi 2011, cishe kwasakazwa cishe ama- € 890 billion, i-euro ibinenani eliphakeme kakhulu lemali engamaphepha kanye nezinhlamvu zemali ezisakazwa emhlabeni, njengoba selidlule idola laseMelika. Ngokuya ngesilinganiso seSikhwama Sezimali Samazwe Ngamazwe se-GDP ka-2008 kanye nokulingana kwamandla okuthenga phakathi kwezimali ezahlukahlukene, i-eurozone ingumnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni.
UGeorge Soros, ukubheja kwakhe okungamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-10 ngonyaka we-1992 kwandulele ukwehliswa kweBhange laseNgilandi kwephawundi noJohn Taylor kuFX Concepts, ophethe isikhwama semali esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, babikezele ukuhlukana kwe-euro, noma babikezela ukuthi izokwehla ngokulingana nedola . Kodwa-ke, isibikezelo sabo singahunyushwa kalula ngokuthi ukubheja, kusobala ukuthi banezizathu zokuthi kungani befuna ukuwa futhi lezo zizathu azinakho ukuzidela, ukuhaha okuyisisekelo. Labo abazibophezele ngokuphelele ekuphakamiseni ukuphikisana nokukhala ngemali kungenzeka ukuthi balisekele iqembu elingalungile. Ungazikhohlisi ngokuthi yize uguqe ngamadolo ngenkathi ubuka imikhumbi yasolwandle, izinsongo zesimo semali egcinwe yi-USA zihlale zidala isiyaluyalu ekuphathweni kwe-USA selokhu kwahlanganiswa ezomnotho zaseYurophu. Ikakhulukazi lapho lokho kusongelwa kusimo sedola sokugcina kufinyelela kumanani entengo kawoyela kuma-euro.
Ngokuphikisana nedola, i-euro ibisukela kumasenti angama-82.3 ngo-Okthoba 2000 kuya ku- $ 1.6038 ngoJulayi 2008. Ukuvumelana okujwayelekile ngukuthi i-euro izobamba ngaphezu kwama- $ 1.30 kulo nyaka njengoba amaCentral Banks nezimali zomnotho ezimele zifuna ezinye izindlela kunedola. Masingakhohlwa ukuthi ukuzimisela kwe-SNB (Swiss National Bank) ukukhipha i-franc nakho kusekela ngqo i-euro njengokungaqondile 'ngokugcina' komcebo. Leso sikhonkwane sikhombisa ukuba yigalelo elikhulu engcebweni eyayifakwe unomphela 'eyayipakiwe' nengcebo efihliwe.
Naphezu kwazo zonke izinxushunxushu i-euro eqiniswe ngamaphesenti ayi-1.42 ngesonto eledlule kuqhathaniswa nebhasikidi labontanga abayisishiyagalolunye abathuthukile, iningi selokhu lathola amaphesenti ayi-1.55 esikhathini esiphele ngoJuni 3, ngokusho kweBloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index Index. Kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti ama-2.5 kusuka kulokhu okuphansi kwale nyanga ngoSepthemba 12, izinkomba zikhombisa. Ekupheleni kwesonto eledlule kuka- $ 1.35, imali inamandla ngamaphesenti ayi-12 kunesilinganiso sayo esingu- $ 1.2024 kusukela ngoJanuwari 1999. Ngenkathi osomaqhinga behlise izibikezelo zabo ukuze babonge, basayibona inyukela ku- $ 1.43 ngasekupheleni kuka-2012, ngokuya ngemediyali engu-35 ilinganisela kuhlolo lweBloomberg. Ukwehla okungaba ngu-40%, ukuze kufinyelelwe ukulingana nedola lase-USA, ngabe kuphelile kwi-radar?
ISchneider Foreign Exchange, isibikezeli semali esinembe kakhulu kunawo wonke amakota ayisithupha kuya kuJuni 30, ngokusho kwedatha ehlanganiswe yiBloomberg, ibikezela ukuthi i-euro izohweba ngo- $ 1.56 ngonyaka ozayo. Baphinde baqhubekele phambili ngokusikisela ukuthi iphutha elenziwe yiGrisi lizoba “li-cathartic” elimangalisayo esifundeni, ligudlise ukunakekela emuva emuva kusabelomali se-US $ 1 trillion nokwenyuka kwesikweletu, ngokusho kukaStephen Gallo, inhloko yenkampani yokuhlaziywa kwemakethe . Lokho kugxila kubuye kubuyele e-UK njengokushoda kwayo nokuphathwa kwezikweletu okuthe kuphela ngomusa wobudlelwano bomphakathi 'obuhlakaniphile' nokuphambuka okuhlala kungabuzwa. Ngenkathi umthethosivivinywa wekhadi lesikweletu lase-UK (ukusilela) kubonakala kungaphansi kokulawulwa kwempahla ebanjiswayo (isikweletu sisonke) sisakhulu.
"Angicabangi ukuthi i-euro izobhidlika, ibhekene nezinselelo eziningi kodwa ngeke ize yehle," kusho u-Audrey Childe-Freeman, oyinhloko yamasu wezimali eLondon ophikweni lwamabhange azimele eJPMorgan. "Ngokomnotho, alikho izwe eliyilungu elingazuza ngokuhlukana kwe-euro-zone futhi yingakho kwezepolitiki, kungeke kwenzeke lokho."
“Kufakwe imali eningi kakhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nemibono yokwenza umsebenzi we-euro usebenze futhi nokusondeza izwekazi laseYurophu ndawonye kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yezwe II ukuyivumela ukuba ivuleke manje,” - uThanos Papasavvas, inhloko yezokuphathwa kwemali eLondon Abakwa-Investec Asset Management Ltd., abatshala imali ebalelwa ku- $ 95 billion, basho engxoxweni ebingoSepthemba 20 neBloomberg.
Yize konke ukugxila kwabezindaba obekungukuwa okungenzeka kwe-Euro, ikakhulukazi osopolitiki abangamaphiko okudla abadansa ngaphambi kwesikhathi ethuneni layo, kufanele ngabe baqale ukwamukela ekugcineni ukuthi iphrojekthi enkulu kangaka ngeke ivunyelwe ukuthi yehluleke? Uma ucubungula umlando wakamuva kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi amazwe anamandla afana ne-Argentina aqhamuka kanjani enkingeni yemali yezwe, ukukhathazeka okuvela kuzo zonke izitha ze-Euro kungaba ukuthi isifunda se-Euro singavela siqine futhi sibumbane uma le nkinga isiphelile. Umqondo abaphathi be-USA abangawuthola ungathandeki uma ekugcineni uthinta isimo sokulondolozwa kwemali yabo.
euroInkinga ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambili
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I-Euro ifile, Phila i-Euro
Septhemba 26 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4888 • Amazwana Off kwi-Euro is Dead, Phila isikhathi eside nge-Euro
Usuku luzofika lapho zonke izizwe ezwenikazi lethu zizokwakha ubuzalwane baseYurophu. Usuku luyeza lapho sizobona khona i-United States of America ne-United States of Europe, ubuso nobuso, belulekana ngaphesheya kwezilwandle. - UVictor Hugo 1848.
NgoDisemba 1996, imiklamo yamaphepha emali e-euro akhethwa ngemuva komncintiswano. Umkhandlu we-European Monetary Institute (EMI) ukhethe owinile, umculi wase-Austrian uRobert Kalina, “Ubudala Nezitayela ZaseYurophu” kwakuyisihloko. Okuwuphawu kwakungu; amafasitela, amasango, namabhuloho. ULuc Luycx, umculi waseBelgium, uwine umncintiswano obanzi waseYurophu ohlelwe ukuklama izinhlamvu zemali ze-euro. Wakha uhlangothi oluvamile lwaseYurophu. Uhlangothi lukazwelonke luhlukile ezweni ngalinye kulawo ayishumi nambili. I-euro ekuqaleni yaba yimali ejwayelekile yaseYurophu emazweni ayishumi nambili e-European Union. Lokhu bekumane kungukushintsha kwemali okukhulu kunakho konke okwake kwenzeka ezweni lanamuhla lapho imali 'isiqala ukuba khona' ngo-2002.
I-European Union (i-EU) icebile njenge-United States. I-EU iyindawo yokuhweba enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni. I-euro iyimali yesibili enkulu ebekelwe imali kanye nemali yesibili edayiswa kakhulu emhlabeni ngemuva kwedoli laseMelika. Kusukela ngoJulayi 2011, cishe kwasakazwa cishe ama- € 890 billion, i-euro ibinenani eliphakeme kakhulu lemali engamaphepha kanye nezinhlamvu zemali ezisakazwa emhlabeni, njengoba selidlule idola laseMelika. Ngokuya ngesilinganiso seSikhwama Sezimali Samazwe Ngamazwe se-GDP ka-2008 kanye nokulingana kwamandla okuthenga phakathi kwezimali ezahlukahlukene, i-eurozone ingumnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni.
UGeorge Soros, ukubheja kwakhe okungamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-10 ngonyaka we-1992 kwandulele ukwehliswa kweBhange laseNgilandi kwephawundi noJohn Taylor kuFX Concepts, ophethe isikhwama semali esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, babikezele ukuhlukana kwe-euro, noma babikezela ukuthi izokwehla ngokulingana nedola . Kodwa-ke, isibikezelo sabo singahunyushwa kalula ngokuthi ukubheja, kusobala ukuthi banezizathu zokuthi kungani befuna ukuwa futhi lezo zizathu azinakho ukuzidela, ukuhaha okuyisisekelo. Labo abazibophezele ngokuphelele ekuphakamiseni ukuphikisana nokukhala ngemali kungenzeka ukuthi balisekele iqembu elingalungile. Ungazikhohlisi ngokuthi yize uguqe ngamadolo ngenkathi ubuka imikhumbi yasolwandle, izinsongo zesimo semali egcinwe yi-USA zihlale zidala isiyaluyalu ekuphathweni kwe-USA selokhu kwahlanganiswa ezomnotho zaseYurophu. Ikakhulukazi lapho lokho kusongelwa kusimo sedola sokugcina kufinyelela kumanani entengo kawoyela kuma-euro.
Ngokuphikisana nedola, i-euro ibisukela kumasenti angama-82.3 ngo-Okthoba 2000 kuya ku- $ 1.6038 ngoJulayi 2008. Ukuvumelana okujwayelekile ngukuthi i-euro izobamba ngaphezu kwama- $ 1.30 kulo nyaka njengoba amaCentral Banks nezimali zomnotho ezimele zifuna ezinye izindlela kunedola. Masingakhohlwa ukuthi ukuzimisela kwe-SNB (Swiss National Bank) ukukhipha i-franc nakho kusekela ngqo i-euro njengokungaqondile 'ngokugcina' komcebo. Leso sikhonkwane sikhombisa ukuba yigalelo elikhulu engcebweni eyayifakwe unomphela 'eyayipakiwe' nengcebo efihliwe.
Naphezu kwazo zonke izinxushunxushu i-euro eqiniswe ngamaphesenti ayi-1.42 ngesonto eledlule kuqhathaniswa nebhasikidi labontanga abayisishiyagalolunye abathuthukile, iningi selokhu lathola amaphesenti ayi-1.55 esikhathini esiphele ngoJuni 3, ngokusho kweBloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index Index. Kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti ama-2.5 kusuka kulokhu okuphansi kwale nyanga ngoSepthemba 12, izinkomba zikhombisa. Ekupheleni kwesonto eledlule kuka- $ 1.35, imali inamandla ngamaphesenti ayi-12 kunesilinganiso sayo esingu- $ 1.2024 kusukela ngoJanuwari 1999. Ngenkathi osomaqhinga behlise izibikezelo zabo ukuze babonge, basayibona inyukela ku- $ 1.43 ngasekupheleni kuka-2012, ngokuya ngemediyali engu-35 ilinganisela kuhlolo lweBloomberg. Ukwehla okungaba ngu-40%, ukuze kufinyelelwe ukulingana nedola lase-USA, ngabe kuphelile kwi-radar?
ISchneider Foreign Exchange, isibikezeli semali esinembe kakhulu kunawo wonke amakota ayisithupha kuya kuJuni 30, ngokusho kwedatha ehlanganiswe yiBloomberg, ibikezela ukuthi i-euro izohweba ngo- $ 1.56 ngonyaka ozayo. Baphinde baqhubekele phambili ngokusikisela ukuthi iphutha elenziwe yiGrisi lizoba “li-cathartic” elimangalisayo esifundeni, ligudlise ukunakekela emuva emuva kusabelomali se-US $ 1 trillion nokwenyuka kwesikweletu, ngokusho kukaStephen Gallo, inhloko yenkampani yokuhlaziywa kwemakethe . Lokho kugxila kubuye kubuyele e-UK njengokushoda kwayo nokuphathwa kwezikweletu okuthe kuphela ngomusa wobudlelwano bomphakathi 'obuhlakaniphile' nokuphambuka okuhlala kungabuzwa. Ngenkathi umthethosivivinywa wekhadi lesikweletu lase-UK (ukusilela) kubonakala kungaphansi kokulawulwa kwempahla ebanjiswayo (isikweletu sisonke) sisakhulu.
"Angicabangi ukuthi i-euro izobhidlika, ibhekene nezinselelo eziningi kodwa ngeke ize yehle," kusho u-Audrey Childe-Freeman, oyinhloko yamasu wezimali eLondon ophikweni lwamabhange azimele eJPMorgan. "Ngokomnotho, alikho izwe eliyilungu elingazuza ngokuhlukana kwe-euro-zone futhi yingakho kwezepolitiki, kungeke kwenzeke lokho."
“Kufakwe imali eningi kakhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nemibono yokwenza umsebenzi we-euro usebenze futhi nokusondeza izwekazi laseYurophu ndawonye kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yezwe II ukuyivumela ukuba ivuleke manje,” - uThanos Papasavvas, inhloko yezokuphathwa kwemali eLondon Abakwa-Investec Asset Management Ltd., abatshala imali ebalelwa ku- $ 95 billion, basho engxoxweni ebingoSepthemba 20 neBloomberg.
Yize konke ukugxila kwabezindaba obekungukuwa okungenzeka kwe-Euro, ikakhulukazi osopolitiki abangamaphiko okudla abadansa ngaphambi kwesikhathi ethuneni layo, kufanele ngabe baqale ukwamukela ekugcineni ukuthi iphrojekthi enkulu kangaka ngeke ivunyelwe ukuthi yehluleke? Uma ucubungula umlando wakamuva kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi amazwe anamandla afana ne-Argentina aqhamuka kanjani enkingeni yemali yezwe, ukukhathazeka okuvela kuzo zonke izitha ze-Euro kungaba ukuthi isifunda se-Euro singavela siqine futhi sibumbane uma le nkinga isiphelile. Umqondo abaphathi be-USA abangawuthola ungathandeki uma ekugcineni uthinta isimo sokulondolozwa kwemali yabo.
euroInkinga ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambili
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