I-BoE ayinamathuba ekukhuphuleni isilinganiso se-UK ngoLwesine, ingabe izokhombisa ukuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali, noma ingabe iyindlela yokupholisa ukukhuphuka kwemali?
NgoLwesine ngoNovemba 2 iBhange LaseNgilandi, ngokusebenzisa ikomidi layo lezinqubomgomo zezimali, lizomemezela isinqumo salo maqondana nezinga lenzalo eyisisekelo. Njengamanje ku-0.25%, ukuvumelana okujwayelekile, okuvela kosomnotho abavotelwe yizinhlangano ezihola phambili zezindaba iBloomberg neReuters, kukhuphuke kwaba ngu-0.5%. Ngaphandle kokukhuphuka okungaba khona okuveza ukwanda kokuqala eminyakeni eyishumi, isilinganiso esingu-0.5% sizovele sibuyisele isilinganiso esisezingeni ngaphambi kokuba kuthathwe izinyathelo eziphuthumayo, ngemuva kokuvotelwa kocwaningo lweBrexit nomphumela, ngoJuni 2016.
Kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi noma yikuphi ukukhuphuka ngeke kwethulwe ngoba umnotho wase-UK ubonakala uqine ngokwanele ukumelana nohlelo lokukhuphuka kwamanani, ekugcineni ukuhlehlisa amanani abe ngu-3% noma ngaphezulu, i-BoE ikhathazekile ngokufinyelela kwamandla emali (CPI) 3% ngo-Okthoba futhi idinga ukuthatha izinyathelo ezisheshayo zokupholisa ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali. Iphawundi liwile uma liqhathaniswa nezimali zabalingani balo abakhulu bezentengiselwano kusukela ngoJuni 2016; uma kuqhathaniswa ne-euro iphawundi liwile cishe ngo-14%, uma kuqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ukuwa kuye kwaba ngu-approx. 9%. Lokhu kube nomthelela emananini entengo yokungenisa impahla kuleli kanye nakwezomnotho oqhutshwa ngabathengi, futhi okuncike kakhulu ekungenisweni kwamandla kagesi ngentengo yamadola, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yomkhiqizi okufakwayo kukhuphuke kakhulu e-UK kwenyusa amanani. Ngenkathi umholo wehlulekile ukugcina ijubane; ngo-approx. I-2.1% YoY (ngaphandle kwamabhonasi) ukunyuswa kwamaholo kusondele. 1% ngaphansi kwamandla emali.
Uma i-MPC ye-BoE imemezela ukukhushulwa kwemali, ukunaka kwabatshalizimali kuzophendukela kulokho kulandisa bese kukopishwa okulethwe yikomidi lenqubomgomo; ikakhulukazi ukuthi isinqumo besivumelwane ngazwilinye, noma besiningi. I-BoE izobamba isithangami nabezindaba ngokushesha ngemuva kwesimemezelo sezinga, lapho bezokhipha khona umbiko wabo wamanani emali. Kungale nqubo lapho abathengisi be-FX, abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali, bezothola ukuthi ngabe iBoE / MPC ibona ukukhuphuka okungenzeka kube yinto eyodwa yokuhamba ngaphambi kwejika lokwehla kwamandla emali, noma ukuqala kohlelo lokuqinisa inqubomgomo yemali evulekile yebhange eliphakathi . I-BoE nayo iveze ukukhathazeka mayelana nezikweletu zabathengi ezingavikelekile; kukhuphuke ngo-9.9% i-YoY futhi ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuzonciphisa ukufunwa.
UMark Carney, uMbusi weBoE, wakhipha umhlahlandlela obheke phambili ngomhlaka 10 Okthoba, ekhomba ukukhula okungaba khona, i-sterling selokhu yaqhamuka uma iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu; I-GBP / USD ikhuphukile isuka ku-approx 1.3040 yephula i-1.330. I-EUR / GPB iwile ngazo zombili i-200 kanye ne-100 DMA, ukusuka kusibambo se-90.00 kuye ku-0.9750. Ngakho-ke okushiwo ukuthi ukukhuphuka bekuseduze, sekuvele kuhambise imiphumela ebifiswa nguMnu Carney; ukukhuphuka kwenani lephawundi lase-UK uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga balo abakhulu. Kodwa-ke, iphini likambusi weBhange LaseNgilandi, uSir Jon Cunliffe, muva nje uphakamise ukuthi kungenzeka kusheshe kakhulu ukuqala ukukhuphula inzalo. Njengomphumela wemibono yalaba benzi bezinqubomgomo abahola phambili, ukukhuphuka kwe-GBP uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yayo kungenzeka sekuvele "kunentengo ngaphakathi" futhi uma inani lenzalo liphakanyisiwe, amabhangqa e-GPB kungenzeka angakhuphuki kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, abathengisi kufanele bakhumbule ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi kukhona ama-spikes abalulekile, ikakhulukazi uma umbiko we-inflation kanye nokulandisa okuhambisana nakho kungu-hawkish.
IZIMETRIKI ZOMNOTHO EZIBALULEKILE EZIBALULEKILE KULOMCIMBI WEKHALENDA ELIPHAKEME KAKHULU
• Izinga lenzalo yamanje 0.25%.
• Ukwehla kwamandla emali (CPI) 3%.
• Ukukhula kweGDP minyaka yonke 1.5%.
• Ukukhula kwe-GBP Q3 0.4%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.3%.
• Ukukhula komholo u-2.2%.
• Isikweletu sangasese v GDP 231%.
• Imisebenzi PMI 53.6.
• Ukuthengisa ngokuthengisa YoY 1.2%.
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