AbakwaSterling bahweba phansi yize bekukhona uhulumeni wakamuva wase-UK. ungqongqoshe uxosha, idola laseMelika lenyuka njengoba izindaba ezinhle zomnotho ziholela enkolelweni yokuthi inzalo izokhuphuka kakhulu ngo-2018
Njengoba abathengisi abafushane bezimali zase-USA balibangise ekusebenzeni kwabo okubi kakhulu ngonyaka kusukela ngo-2013, abatshalizimali abaningi nabahlaziyi bazobe bebuza lo mbuzo; zingaphakama kangakanani izimali ngo-2018, manje isizathu esiyinhloko sokubuya kwazo okumangalisayo kowezi-2017 asisona isisusa? Imakethe yezokulingana ye-DJIA e-USA ikhuphuke ngama-circa angama-27% kuze kube manje ngo-2017, ngenxa yesithembiso sokwehliswa kwentela yamaRephabliki kanye nohlelo olukhulu lokusetshenziswa kwengqalasizinda. Zombili lezi zindlela zokuvuselela izimali zibhekwe kahle kakhulu ngabatshalizimali futhi zithathwa njengezithuthukisa izindawo zaseMelika ezisilele emuva kwejika lokukhula komnotho, noma ezixegayo eminyakeni edlule.
Manje sesiyazi ukuthi uhlelo lokwehliswa kwentela luyenzeka, imali esetshenziswayo yokukhuthaza izimali (okungangezigidi zamadola ayizigidi eziyizigidi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu ethembise ukwakha kabusha ingqalasizinda edilikayo), inyamalale ngokumangazayo ekulandiseni kwamaRiphabhulikhi kanye noTrump ezinyangeni ezedlule.
Uhlelo lokusetshenziswa kwengqalasizinda olungaba khona lube nomthelela omubi edollar laseMelika kulo lonke u-2017, futhi yize iFed igcina isethembiso sayo sokukhuphula amanani kathathu ngo-2017 abatshalizimali bahlulekile ukukhipha idola, eliwe kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nezimbili zezinto zalo ezinkulu ontanga; i-euro futhi enhle kakhulu unyaka wonke. I-UK BoE ne-Eurozone ECB zilethe izitatimende eziyinqaba phakathi nonyaka maqondana nokukhuphuka kwamazinga wenzalo. Ngokuya ngezenzo zenqubomgomo yemali; i-BoE izwakale iphoqelekile ukukhuphula amanani ngo-0.25% kuya ku-0.5% ngoNovemba, ngenhloso yokulwa nengcindezi yokwenyuka kwamandla emali, kanti okuwukuphela kwesinyathelo sokwe-hawkish esenziwe yi-ECB bekungukuthwebula i-APP yayo (uhlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla) ngo- € 20b ngenyanga. Ngaphandle kwalokhu kungabi khona kwesenzo zombili izimali zamabhange amakhulu zenyuka uma kuqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ngonyaka we-2017.
I-Fed (futhi) isanda kuzibophezela ohlelweni lokukhuphuka kwamazinga wenzalo ngonyaka we-2018, iphakamisa okunye ukukhuphuka okuthathu kwama-0.25% unyaka wonke futhi yathi ikulungele futhi ukubheka izindlela zokwehlukanisa kubhalansi layo elingama- $ 4.5 trillion. Noma kunjalo yize kunalesi siphakamiso se-hawkish, idola laseMelika lisahlulekile ukwenza inzuzo ebonakalayo uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga bobabili. Ngesikhathi sika-2018 kuzothakazelisa ukubona ukuthi idola liyakhuphuka ngempela yini, uma kwenzeka amazinga amathathu enyuka. Uma kwenzeka lokho i-BoE ne-ECB bangaphoqeleka ukuba balandele futhi baqale uhlelo lwabo lokujwayelekile.
Mayelana nezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho ngoLwesine, ukukhula kwe-GDP kwe-USA kuphuthelwe yisibikezelo, ngokufika ku-3.2% YoY, ngenkathi idatha yezimangalo zokuqala neqhubekayo engenamsebenzi nayo yeqiwe yizibikezelo. Ukuthengiswa kwezitolo zaseJapan kushaye izibikezelo, ngenkathi i-BOJ igcina amazinga wenzalo ngo -0.1%. Izibalo zokungenisa nokuthekelisa zaseSwitzerland zazivuna futhi zishaya okulindelekile, njengoba kwenza ibhalansi yezohwebo nayo eyenze ngcono iMoM. Isibalo sokubolekwa kwemali yomphakathi yase-UK ngoNovemba sithuthuke kancane, futhi ukuzethemba kwabathengi kwe-Eurozone kukhuphuke ngokulingene. Ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zase-UK kuqophe ukuwa okukhulu kakhulu ngonyaka ngonyaka we-2017, kusukela ukwehla kwamandla omnotho ngo-2009.
Izibalo zokukhuthaza ukuthengisa zaseCanada, ezibonisa ukwanda okukhulu kwaba ngu-2.5% ngo-Okthoba, okuhlanganiswe ne-CPI kukhuphuka ngokulingene, kubangele abatshalizimali ukuthi bathenge idola laseCanada ngokususelwa enkolelweni yokuthi i-RBA manje inezinhlamvu ezidingekayo zokukhuphula inzalo futhi ekuqaleni konyaka omusha unyaka. I-CAD inyuke ngokuqhathaniswa neningi lontanga yayo, inyuka nge-circa 1% ngokuqhathanisa ne-USD. Igolide ligcine ukukhuphuka kwalo kwakamuva kusuka ku-December 12th low low ka-1236, ukuze esigabeni esisodwa kufinyelelwe kuma-DMA angama-200 we-1269, ngaphambi kokubuyisa izinzuzo ezithile.
EURO
I-EUR / USD ithengiswe ngebanga elincane le-0.2%, ivalwa ngo-1.186, iflethi ngosuku futhi isondele kwi-PP yansuku zonke. I-EUR / GBP ibuye ihwebe ngobubanzi obuncane (cishe. 0.3%) phakathi nosuku, ngokuchema kuya phezulu, ngaphambi kokuvala iflethi ngosuku ngo-0.886.
UKUQALA
I-GBP / USD ishaywe ngebanga le-bearish, yehla nge-S2 yehle ngo-0.6%, ngaphambi kokululama ukuqeda usuku phansi. I-GBP / AUD inyukele ku-R1, ngaphambi kokuwela nge-S2, ukuvala usuku nge-0.6%.
I-USDOLLAR
I-USD / JPY inyuke nge-R1, ngaphambi kokubuyela emuva ukuqeda usuku lukhuphuke ngo-0.2%. I-USD / CHF yephule i-R1, yenyukela phezulu ngo-0.5%, ngaphambi kokubuyisela ezinye zezinzuzo ezibuyela ku-R1, zikhuphuke ngo-0.3% ngosuku ngo-0.985. I-USD / CAD yehle cishe ngo-1% ngosuku ngenkathi iwela nge-S3, yavala usuku ngo-1.273.
GOLD
I-XAU / USD ishaywe ngesiswebhu kuzo zonke izikhathi zokuhweba, yehla nge-S1, yehla ngo-0.3%, yabe isifinyelela izinga eliphakeme lansuku zonke le-1269 futhi ekugcineni yafinyelela kuma-200 DMA yenyuka ngo-0.3%, ngaphambi kokuyeka ukuzuza ukuqeda usuku cishe ku-1266.
ISITHOMBE SOKUKHOKHWA KWEZIMBALO ZOKULINGANA SIKA-DECEMBER 21
• I-DJIA ivale u-0.23%.
• I-SPX ivale u-0.20%.
• I-FTSE 100 ivale u-1.05%.
• I-DAX ivale u-0.31%.
• I-CAC ivale u-0.52%.
IZENZAKALO ZEKHALENDA EZIYINHLOKO NGOMHLA DISEMBA 22.
• I-GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q F).
• I-CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (OCT).
• Ama-oda Empahla Ehlala Njalo e-USD (NOV P).
• I-USD U. ye-Mich. Sentiment (DEC F).
• I-USD New Home Sales (MoM) (NOV).
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