Ukwesaba I-Stagflation Okubangelwa Izinhlekelele Zomnotho Ezizayo
Izimakethe zezimali zibambene ngezihluthu phakathi kokwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo kanye nezinkathazo zokwehla komnotho njengoba zizama ukuqagela umnyakazo olandelayo we-Federal Reserve. Lokhu kusho ukuthi abatshalizimali bangase bangaziba umphumela oyingozi kakhulu: i-stagflation.
Inhlanganisela yokukhula kancane komnotho kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo kungase kuqede ithemba lokuhlehliswa komkhankaso oshubile we-Fed wokunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokukhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo. Lokhu kuzodalula ukungahluleli kahle kwezimakethe eziningi, okungase kwenyuse intengo yamasheya, imali mboleko kanye nezinye izimpahla eziyingozi kulo nyaka.
Lokhu abanye osomnotho abakubiza ngokuthi “i-stagflation lite” futhi kumele isizinda somnotho omkhulu esikhathazayo kubaphathi bezikhwama abasazikhotha amanxeba ngenxa yokwehla kwezintengo zesitoko namabhondi ngo-2022.
Izibonelo zomlando zomnotho ogxile ku-stagflation zikhawulelwe, ngakho-ke kuncane ukuqondisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kulolu hlobo lomnotho. Kubaphathi abaningi bezikhwama, ukuhweba okuthandwayo kuyizibopho zekhwalithi ephezulu, igolide, namasheya ezinkampani ezingabhekana nokuwohloka komnotho.
"Kufanele kube khona into efana nokukhuphuka kwamandla emali kulo nyaka - ukwehla kwamandla emali okunamathelayo kanye nokukhula kancane - kuze kube yilapho kwenzeka okuthile futhi i-Fed iphoqeleka ukuba yehlise amanani," kusho uKelly Wood, umphathi wemali eSchroders Plc. "Sikholelwa ukuthi amabhondi azoba isigaba esiyinhloko sempahla ngo-2023. Izinzuzo eziphakeme isikhathi eside kuze kube yilapho okuthile kuphuka akuyona indawo ekhangayo yezimpahla eziyingozi kanye nendawo enhle yokwenza inzuzo ngemali engenayo engashintshi."
I-GDP
I-Bloomberg Economics ibona ubungozi obukhulayo bokukhuphuka kwemali, ikubiza ngokuthi "i-stagflation lite", futhi ukuhlola kokuqala kukahulumeni kokukhula komnotho kwikota yokuqala kuqinisekisa iphuzu labo. Isamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya sikhule ngesilinganiso saminyaka yonke esingu-1.1% phakathi kukaJanuwari noMashi, i-Bureau of Economic Analysis yabika ngo-April 27. Lokhu kwedlule isilinganiso esimaphakathi sosomnotho ocwaningweni lwase-Bloomberg futhi kwaphawula ukwehla kokukhula kwekota edlule ngo-2.6%. Khonamanjalo, i-inflation benchmark ekhethwa yi-Fed, engafaki ukudla namandla, ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-4.9% ngekota yokuqala.
Ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali
Lokhu kucindezela okuqhubekayo kokwehla kwamandla emali kusho ukuthi abenzi bezinqubomgomo kungenzeka banyuse amanani futhi ngoMeyi 3, njengoba ingcindezi yakamuva yamabhange iqinisa izimo zezikweletu ngendlela esongela ukukhulisa imizamo ye-Fed yokunciphisa isidingo. Icala eliyisisekelo le-Bloomberg Economics liwukuthi i-Fed izothatha ikhefu elide ngemuva kokwenyuka kwezinga kuleli sonto, kodwa baxwayisa ngengozi ekhulayo okungenzeka ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi kungase kudingeke lenze okwengeziwe.
Lokhu kugqamisa ubungozi bokungahlulelwa kahle kwemakethe kuzilinganiso zenzalo zesikhathi esifushane, eziphakamisa iphuzu lekota eyodwa ukuya kwezine ezimbili ezincishisiwe ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
“Isimo sokwehla kwamandla emali engisibonayo esibikezelweni sami sokuphela kwalo nyaka, kanye nango-2024, sizokhula sibe ngu-zero siye ku-1%, sisondele ku-zero, bese sikhuphuka nokwehla kwamandla emali ngaphezu kuka-3%,” kusho u-Anna Wong, isikhulu. Usomnotho wase-US e-Bloomberg Economics.
Ijika elijikayo
Ijika lesivuno lihlala lihlanekezelwe kakhulu, inkomba yomlando yokuwohloka komnotho. Inzuzo eyisisekelo yamabhondi eminyaka eyi-10 cishe ku-3.5% cishe ingaphansi kwamaphoyinti angama-61 ngaphansi kwesivuno samabhondi weminyaka emi-2.
Kodwa-ke ijika liya ngokuya lishuba futhi, futhi igebe belilokhu lincipha selokhu kwafinyelela amaphuzu ayi-111 ngoMashi 8 - ukuguquguquka okujulile kusukela ekuqaleni kwawo-1980 - njengoba ukwehluleka kwamanye amabhange esifunda kukhulisa ukukhathazeka komnotho wase-US kanye nokulindela kukaphethiloli ngenani. inqunywe yi-Fed.
Izimali ze-Hedge ziye zanda ukubheja ngokumelene namasheya ase-US, uphawu lokuthi bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe yamasheya ibukelwa phansi ngemuva kokuqala okuqinile konyaka. Baphinde babheje kakhulu ngokumelene nabagcinimafa - izimali ezitholiwe, kusukela ngo-Ephreli 25, zenze cishe ukubheja okukhulu kunakho konke okwake kwenzeka ngokuncipha kwekusasa lebhondi leminyaka eyi-10.
amatshe ayigugu
Abanye abatshalizimali baphendukela ezinsimbi eziyigugu njengendawo ephephile. U-Matthew McLennan, we-First Eagle Investments, uthe cishe u-15% wamaphothifoliyo enkampani emhlabeni jikelele angabasebenzi bezimayini abayizinkunzi kanye negolide njengendlela engase ibe uthango lokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nedola elinciphayo phakathi kovalo “lwenkinga yesistimu ebanzi” ezimakethe.
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