Septhemba 28 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4773 • Amazwana Off ku-Relief Rally Fades njengoba i-Reality Bites
Bekungeke kugwemeke ukuthi umbuthano onamandla kakhulu wokusiza izimakethe ezijatshulelwe izolo wawungaqhubeki. Ingabe kwake kwaba khona isikhathi emlandweni wakamuva wokuhweba okwakumane kukhulunywe ngazo izisombululo ezingaba khona zabenzi bezinqubomgomo zaseYurophu ezingaholela ekushintshashintsheni kwemizwelo okungaka? Sisekude kakhulu nokuqaliswa kwezindlela ezehlukene zokugwema okokuqala ukungaphumeleli kwe-Greece futhi okwesibili ukusulelana kwezinkinga zezikweletu ezinkulu kodwa nokho isifiso sezimakethe sezimakethe sibonakala singaneliseki. Lokhu kukhombisa ngempela ukuthi sesifinyelele iphuzu elibalulekile, ukulingana lapho izimakethe zamasheya ezinkulu zingafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu onyakeni ezitholwe ngo-Jan 2011 noma okungenzeka zehlele kumazinga ka-2008.
Wathola isidlaliso esithi Doctor Doom ngesikhathi sokuphahlazeka kwango-2008-2009, ngangihlale nginomuzwa wokuthi lokho kwakungalungile ku-Nouriel Roubini, wayethwele kanzima, kodwa ireferensi ye-X-Men ayizange ingisebenzele. Wathintana naye ebusuku, ngambona ngeso lengqondo njengo-The Count waseSesame Street, ngokucophelela nangezwi eliphelele laseTransylvanian, echaza ukuthi izinombolo 'zisebenze' kanjani, nokwenza 'isundu sobuso' lapho singatholi. yona. Kwaba yishothi eshibhile kakhulu ukubiza uNouriel njenge-batty ngo-2008-2009, futhi abezindaba abajwayelekile benza umsebenzi onzima kuye, bechaza indlu yakhe yaseManhattan njengendawo yokuphumula, bebala 'izinqola' zakhe zabesifazane, bemlandela ezinkantini nasemakilabhini ebusuku. . Mhlawumbe ubengajabuleli igama lakhe elibi, emane ecwila okwakhe nokwethu silindele izigameko ezizokwenzeka.
'Iwashi elimile lilungile kabili ngosuku' isifaniso sivamise ukujikijelwa ngakuMnu. Roubini, hey, qagela ini? Wayeqinisile ngo-2008 futhi ukhona manje. Isibikezelo sakhe-ke; ukuthi 'ukusindisa uhlelo' ngo-2008 ngokusebenzisa amaqhinga e-QE anohlangothi olulodwa, i-zirp kanye ne-bailouts, kungadala izinkinga zezikweletu phakathi neminyaka embalwa kuye kwafakazelwa. Ngokungangabazeki isazi sezomnotho sokuqala esidumile ukubeka phambili amagama athi "ukugwema lokhu kwehla komnotho kuzodala ukudangala" kwathuthukiswa kuphela yisinqumo sakhe sokuthi "umgwaqo omkhulu udinga ukuhlengwa ngaphambi kweWall St". Okucatshangwayo ukuthi akukho kuziphatha okungaxhunywa kubadlali abakhulu, izingcweti zendawo yonke, uma 'bengaphumelela' uma nje bekwenza ngokuphindaphindiwe. Ukubhekisela kwakhe ku-main street nakho kwakufanelekile, inkolelo yokuthi uma uphinda u-Joe omaphakathi, futhi umvumela ukuthi asule noma asethe kabusha isikweletu sakhe, impilo yakhe, ithemba lakhe, khona-ke umnotho uzosimama futhi uchume ngokushesha okukhulu. .
U-Roubini manje usephinde wacashunwa kwabezindaba ezijwayelekile futhi uphathwa ngenhlonipho. Nokho, lokhu kungase kushintshe futhi kulandele iphethini eyafakazelwa ngo-2008-2009. Iwebhusayithi yakhe ibhalisele amakhasimende akhe amakhulu kuphela, okuyihlazo, ngokombono wami othobekile angakwazi futhi kufanele akhe inguqulo 'elula' ukuze isetshenziswe umphakathi. Ngakho-ke okwamanje kufanele silwe nezingcaphuno kanye nemisindo evela kubasolwa abavamile. Kuphephandaba iTelegraph muva nje uphakamise ukuthi i-USA ne-UK sebevele basesimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, futhi ubonakala ephakamisa kwenye indawo ukuthi ukuwohloka komnotho kwaphuma kodwa empeleni i-UK ne-USA azikaze zikubaleke ukwehla komnotho. Ubuye abe nemibono ethakazelisayo nge-inflation versus deflation, ekholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzoba inkinga yokugcina amabhange amakhulu azoyesaba.
UNouriel Roubini:
“Yize inqubomgomo yezimali inomthelela olinganiselwe lapho izinkinga ziyizikweletu ezinkulu kanye nokushoda kwezimali esikhundleni sokungabi namthetho, ukudambisa izikweletu, kunokuba kube lula nje, kungaba usizo. I-European Central Bank kufanele iguqule isinqumo sayo esiyiphutha sokwenyusa amanani enzalo. Ukudambisa imali eyengeziwe nekhredithi kuyadingeka futhi ku-US Federal Reserve, IBhange LaseJapan, IBhange LaseNgilandi, kanye neBhange Likazwelonke lase-Swiss. Ukwehla kwamandla emali maduzane kuzoba inkinga yokugcina amabhange amakhulu azoyesaba, njengoba ukuntenga okuvuselelwe kwezimpahla, abasebenzi, izindlu nezindawo, kanye nezimakethe zezimpahla kudlisa incindezelo yokwehla kwamandla emali.”
I-European Union ibhekene nenselelo enkulu emlandweni wayo omfushane, njengoba inkinga yokuthembela ihlanganisa izinkinga zomnotho nezenhlalo, uMongameli weKhomishini YaseYurophu uJose Manuel Barroso usho kanje enkulumweni yakhe yaminyaka yonke ye-State of the Union ngesikhathi somhlangano wePhalamende laseYurophu eFrance. idolobha laseStrasbourg.
“Yisimo esibucayi sokuzethemba esingakaze senzeke amashumi eminyaka”. UBarroso uphinde waqinisekisa ukuthi iGreece izohlala iyilungu lendawo yemali eyodwa ye-euro nokuthi uma kufanele kube nokuhlanganiswa okujulile kwezomnotho phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu e-European Union, uma kungenjalo le bloc enamalungu angama-27 izobhekana nokuqhekeka.
Umhlangano wokusiza wangoLwesibili awuzange udlulele ezimakethe zase-Asia njengoba ubusuku nemini izinkomba eziphambili zanyamalala. I-Nikkei iphelile, i-CSI ivale ngo-1.03%, i-Hang Seng ivale ngo-0.66%. I-ASX ivale ngo-0.87%. Ezimakethe zaseYurophu ukuhweba ekuseni kuye kwanqotshwa, i-FTSE okwamanje iphansi, i-STOXX iphansi ngo-1.05%, i-CAC iphansi ngo-0.98%, i-DAX okwamanje iphansi ngo-0.88%. Ikusasa lezabelomali lansuku zonke le-SPX likhuphuke kancane ku-0.3%. I-Brent crude yehle ngo-$65 umgqomo, igolide liyisicaba.
Ukushicilelwa kwedatha kweseshini yaseNew York okufanele kuqashelwe kufaka phakathi;
12:00 US - Izicelo ze-MBA Mortgage Sept
13:30 US - Ama-oda Ezimpahla Ezihlala Njalo Aug
Ama-oda wezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside angase abe nomthelela ekuzweni njengoba ukugxila kubuyela emuva emigwaqweni yasekhaya yase-USA. Kuyinkomba kahulumeni ekala inani lama-oda amasha afakwe kubakhiqizi baseMelika ukuze kulethwe izimpahla zasembonini ezihlala isikhathi eside, njengemishini, izimoto kanye nezinto zikagesi. Izimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside zichazwa njengezinto ezinobude obujwayelekile beminyaka emithathu noma ngaphezulu. Abahlaziyi abahlolwe yi-Bloomberg banikeze isibikezelo esimaphakathi esingu--0.2%, uma siqhathaniswa nokukhishwa kokugcina okwakungu-4.00%. Ngaphandle kwezinto zokuhamba, okulindelekile ngu-0.20% (okwangaphambili =0.7%).
i-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliisikweletu esizimele
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I-Rally Rally Fades njengoba i-Reality Bites
Septhemba 28 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4773 • Amazwana Off ku-Relief Rally Fades njengoba i-Reality Bites
Bekungeke kugwemeke ukuthi umbuthano onamandla kakhulu wokusiza izimakethe ezijatshulelwe izolo wawungaqhubeki. Ingabe kwake kwaba khona isikhathi emlandweni wakamuva wokuhweba okwakumane kukhulunywe ngazo izisombululo ezingaba khona zabenzi bezinqubomgomo zaseYurophu ezingaholela ekushintshashintsheni kwemizwelo okungaka? Sisekude kakhulu nokuqaliswa kwezindlela ezehlukene zokugwema okokuqala ukungaphumeleli kwe-Greece futhi okwesibili ukusulelana kwezinkinga zezikweletu ezinkulu kodwa nokho isifiso sezimakethe sezimakethe sibonakala singaneliseki. Lokhu kukhombisa ngempela ukuthi sesifinyelele iphuzu elibalulekile, ukulingana lapho izimakethe zamasheya ezinkulu zingafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu onyakeni ezitholwe ngo-Jan 2011 noma okungenzeka zehlele kumazinga ka-2008.
Wathola isidlaliso esithi Doctor Doom ngesikhathi sokuphahlazeka kwango-2008-2009, ngangihlale nginomuzwa wokuthi lokho kwakungalungile ku-Nouriel Roubini, wayethwele kanzima, kodwa ireferensi ye-X-Men ayizange ingisebenzele. Wathintana naye ebusuku, ngambona ngeso lengqondo njengo-The Count waseSesame Street, ngokucophelela nangezwi eliphelele laseTransylvanian, echaza ukuthi izinombolo 'zisebenze' kanjani, nokwenza 'isundu sobuso' lapho singatholi. yona. Kwaba yishothi eshibhile kakhulu ukubiza uNouriel njenge-batty ngo-2008-2009, futhi abezindaba abajwayelekile benza umsebenzi onzima kuye, bechaza indlu yakhe yaseManhattan njengendawo yokuphumula, bebala 'izinqola' zakhe zabesifazane, bemlandela ezinkantini nasemakilabhini ebusuku. . Mhlawumbe ubengajabuleli igama lakhe elibi, emane ecwila okwakhe nokwethu silindele izigameko ezizokwenzeka.
'Iwashi elimile lilungile kabili ngosuku' isifaniso sivamise ukujikijelwa ngakuMnu. Roubini, hey, qagela ini? Wayeqinisile ngo-2008 futhi ukhona manje. Isibikezelo sakhe-ke; ukuthi 'ukusindisa uhlelo' ngo-2008 ngokusebenzisa amaqhinga e-QE anohlangothi olulodwa, i-zirp kanye ne-bailouts, kungadala izinkinga zezikweletu phakathi neminyaka embalwa kuye kwafakazelwa. Ngokungangabazeki isazi sezomnotho sokuqala esidumile ukubeka phambili amagama athi "ukugwema lokhu kwehla komnotho kuzodala ukudangala" kwathuthukiswa kuphela yisinqumo sakhe sokuthi "umgwaqo omkhulu udinga ukuhlengwa ngaphambi kweWall St". Okucatshangwayo ukuthi akukho kuziphatha okungaxhunywa kubadlali abakhulu, izingcweti zendawo yonke, uma 'bengaphumelela' uma nje bekwenza ngokuphindaphindiwe. Ukubhekisela kwakhe ku-main street nakho kwakufanelekile, inkolelo yokuthi uma uphinda u-Joe omaphakathi, futhi umvumela ukuthi asule noma asethe kabusha isikweletu sakhe, impilo yakhe, ithemba lakhe, khona-ke umnotho uzosimama futhi uchume ngokushesha okukhulu. .
U-Roubini manje usephinde wacashunwa kwabezindaba ezijwayelekile futhi uphathwa ngenhlonipho. Nokho, lokhu kungase kushintshe futhi kulandele iphethini eyafakazelwa ngo-2008-2009. Iwebhusayithi yakhe ibhalisele amakhasimende akhe amakhulu kuphela, okuyihlazo, ngokombono wami othobekile angakwazi futhi kufanele akhe inguqulo 'elula' ukuze isetshenziswe umphakathi. Ngakho-ke okwamanje kufanele silwe nezingcaphuno kanye nemisindo evela kubasolwa abavamile. Kuphephandaba iTelegraph muva nje uphakamise ukuthi i-USA ne-UK sebevele basesimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, futhi ubonakala ephakamisa kwenye indawo ukuthi ukuwohloka komnotho kwaphuma kodwa empeleni i-UK ne-USA azikaze zikubaleke ukwehla komnotho. Ubuye abe nemibono ethakazelisayo nge-inflation versus deflation, ekholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzoba inkinga yokugcina amabhange amakhulu azoyesaba.
UNouriel Roubini:
“Yize inqubomgomo yezimali inomthelela olinganiselwe lapho izinkinga ziyizikweletu ezinkulu kanye nokushoda kwezimali esikhundleni sokungabi namthetho, ukudambisa izikweletu, kunokuba kube lula nje, kungaba usizo. I-European Central Bank kufanele iguqule isinqumo sayo esiyiphutha sokwenyusa amanani enzalo. Ukudambisa imali eyengeziwe nekhredithi kuyadingeka futhi ku-US Federal Reserve, IBhange LaseJapan, IBhange LaseNgilandi, kanye neBhange Likazwelonke lase-Swiss. Ukwehla kwamandla emali maduzane kuzoba inkinga yokugcina amabhange amakhulu azoyesaba, njengoba ukuntenga okuvuselelwe kwezimpahla, abasebenzi, izindlu nezindawo, kanye nezimakethe zezimpahla kudlisa incindezelo yokwehla kwamandla emali.”
I-European Union ibhekene nenselelo enkulu emlandweni wayo omfushane, njengoba inkinga yokuthembela ihlanganisa izinkinga zomnotho nezenhlalo, uMongameli weKhomishini YaseYurophu uJose Manuel Barroso usho kanje enkulumweni yakhe yaminyaka yonke ye-State of the Union ngesikhathi somhlangano wePhalamende laseYurophu eFrance. idolobha laseStrasbourg.
“Yisimo esibucayi sokuzethemba esingakaze senzeke amashumi eminyaka”. UBarroso uphinde waqinisekisa ukuthi iGreece izohlala iyilungu lendawo yemali eyodwa ye-euro nokuthi uma kufanele kube nokuhlanganiswa okujulile kwezomnotho phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu e-European Union, uma kungenjalo le bloc enamalungu angama-27 izobhekana nokuqhekeka.
Umhlangano wokusiza wangoLwesibili awuzange udlulele ezimakethe zase-Asia njengoba ubusuku nemini izinkomba eziphambili zanyamalala. I-Nikkei iphelile, i-CSI ivale ngo-1.03%, i-Hang Seng ivale ngo-0.66%. I-ASX ivale ngo-0.87%. Ezimakethe zaseYurophu ukuhweba ekuseni kuye kwanqotshwa, i-FTSE okwamanje iphansi, i-STOXX iphansi ngo-1.05%, i-CAC iphansi ngo-0.98%, i-DAX okwamanje iphansi ngo-0.88%. Ikusasa lezabelomali lansuku zonke le-SPX likhuphuke kancane ku-0.3%. I-Brent crude yehle ngo-$65 umgqomo, igolide liyisicaba.
Ukushicilelwa kwedatha kweseshini yaseNew York okufanele kuqashelwe kufaka phakathi;
12:00 US - Izicelo ze-MBA Mortgage Sept
13:30 US - Ama-oda Ezimpahla Ezihlala Njalo Aug
Ama-oda wezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside angase abe nomthelela ekuzweni njengoba ukugxila kubuyela emuva emigwaqweni yasekhaya yase-USA. Kuyinkomba kahulumeni ekala inani lama-oda amasha afakwe kubakhiqizi baseMelika ukuze kulethwe izimpahla zasembonini ezihlala isikhathi eside, njengemishini, izimoto kanye nezinto zikagesi. Izimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside zichazwa njengezinto ezinobude obujwayelekile beminyaka emithathu noma ngaphezulu. Abahlaziyi abahlolwe yi-Bloomberg banikeze isibikezelo esimaphakathi esingu--0.2%, uma siqhathaniswa nokukhishwa kokugcina okwakungu-4.00%. Ngaphandle kwezinto zokuhamba, okulindelekile ngu-0.20% (okwangaphambili =0.7%).
i-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliisikweletu esizimele
« UVoodoo noma uJuju? Isimo Semfihlakalo seFibonacci Ukusabalalisa iZwi, Ukusakazeka kwesihloko se-Forex kungadukisa »