ISIKHUMBUZO SASEMAKHATHINI SESONTO 28 / 8-1 / 9 | Ukukhokhelwa kwabangekho epulazini; idatha yokuqashwa nokungasebenzi, ukuzethemba kwabathengi e-USA, i-USA GDP kanye nama-PMI omhlaba jikelele yimicimbi emikhulu yekhalenda yesonto elizayo
Kuyisonto elimatasa nemiphumela ephezulu, imicimbi yekhalenda lezomnotho, okugxilwe kakhulu kwi-USA. Isonto liphela ngemininingwane ye-NFP. Kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle isibalo sokuvulwa kwamathuba emisebenzi, njengoba i-USA manje isiqala ukufinyelela kulokho (ngokwethiyori) okubizwa ngokuthi “ukuqashwa ngokugcwele”; izinga lokungasebenzi libuyele eminyakeni eyishumi nesithupha ephansi ngenyanga edlule, engu-4.3%. Umbuzo, maqondana namathemba emisebenzi, ukuthi mingaki eminye imisebenzi engadalwa, emnothweni othuthukisa zonke izimpawu zokuphuma, noma okumile? Naphezu kokuvulwa kwamathuba emisebenzi okuqhubekayo, imininingwane eqhubekayo yokufuna imisebenzi ihlala iphakeme ngezinkani, kanti izinga lokubamba iqhaza emisebenzini lihlala liphansi cishe kuma-62% kanti umholo wonyaka unyuka (cishe ku-2.3%), useduze nezinga lokwehla kwamandla emali le-CPI. Izakhamizi zase-USA zilibonile inani ledola nokuqedwa kwazo kuqedwa, kanti imininingwane iveza ukuthi kusukela ngo-2010, i-USA ilahlekelwe yimisebenzi yokukhiqiza eyizigidi ezi-2 futhi esikhundleni sayo yathathwa ngemisebenzi eyizigidi ezi-2.
Kuyisonto elikhulu lamaMarkit Economics PMIs, futhi kufanele sizikhumbuze ukuthi kubaluleke kangakanani lokhu kufundwa. Abaningi bethu bayawazi umehluko phakathi kwezinkomba zobuchwepheshe eziholayo nezisalela emuva, futhi ama-PMI anendawo ehlukile ngokungangabazeki, maqondana nokuhlaziywa okuyisisekelo, uma kubhekwa ukuthi bathathwa njengabaholayo (hhayi abasilele), izinkomba eziyisisekelo zokusebenza komnotho. Ngokwencazelo, abakwaMarkit bahlala bebuza umbuzo wamashumi ezinkulungwane zabaphathi bezokuthenga abanjengo; "Uzibona kuphi izimakethe zakho ezahlukahlukene zibheke kuphi, esikhathini esiseduze kuya kwaphakathi nendawo, ingabe ama-oda akho aphezulu, noma aphansi?"
Sunday iqala isonto ngokushicilelwa kwemininingwane yokuthengisa yaseJalimane, ngesilinganiso samanje se-1.5% YoY, kunokuvumelana okujwayelekile kokuthi inani elifanayo lizogcinwa. Izinzuzo zezimboni zaseChina i-YoY ziyashicilelwa, kulindeleke ukuthi zigcine umfutho owenziwe yisibalo senyanga edlule sika-19.1%.
UMsombuluko iqala ngemininingwane yentengo yezindlu yase-UK ezweni lonke kaJuni, kulindeleke ukuthi iveze ukukhuphuka kwe-YoY kugcinwe, cishe ngo-2.9% wezinga lokukhula elivezwe ngoJulayi. Izimpahla ezisezingeni eliphezulu zase-USA ngoJulayi zingumcimbi wekhalenda olandelayo obalulekile, okulindeleke ukuthi uveze ukuthuthuka, kusuka ku-0.7% oqoshwe ngoJuni. Idatha esezingeni eliphakeme yokuhweba ngempahla kaJulayi kulindeleke ukuthi iveze ukusilela okuwohlokayo; kuze kufike ku- - $ 65.2b ngenyanga, kuqhathaniswa - $ 63.9b ngoJuni. Imininingwane ehlukahlukene yaseJapan, kufaka phakathi isilinganiso sokungasebenzi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali yasendlini, izoshicilelwa kusihlwa.
NgoLwesibili ifakaza ukufundwa kokuzethemba komthengi kweGfK okushicilelwe, kulandelwa yi-GDP yaseFrance, kuyo yonke inyanga nakuYoY. Ezingeni lamanje lokukhula okungu-1.8% ngonyaka, abahlaziyi bazobe befuna ukukhula kweFrance GDP ukuze kugcinwe emazingeni afanayo. Njengoba ukunaka kuphendukela e-USA, kushicilelwa imibhalo ehlukahlukene yamanani entengo yendlu yeCase Shiller. Izinga lamanje lentengo yamanani entengo yendlu ye-YoY lingu-5.7%, abatshalizimali balindele ukuthi kuzogcinwa izinga elifanayo. Ukuzethemba kwabathengi e-USA nakho kuyashicilelwa, ukwehla kuya ku-119, kusuka ku-121.1 kulindeleke. Sekuzodalulwa imininingwane yemvume yokuhlala eNew Zealand ngoJulayi ntambama, imicimbi yekhalenda yosuku iphela ngemininingwane yaseJapan ngokuhweba okuthengiswayo; isilinganiso samanje sokukhula esingu-2.1% kubikezelwa ukuthi sizohlala singaguquguquki.
NgoLwesithathu izoveza imininingwane yokwakhiwa kwe-Australia; Ukugunyazwa kwezakhiwo kwehle ngo--2.3% ngoJuni, abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi bazobe befuna ukuthuthuka. Ukuzethemba kwamabhizinisi amancane eJapan kulindeleke ukuthi kugcine izinga elifanayo nokufunda kukaJulayi okungu-50. Njengoba ukugxila kuphendukela eYurophu, idatha yesikweletu sabathengi yase-UK kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ezingeni elifana nokukhula kwe- £ 1.5b ngoJuni. Ukugunyazwa kwempahla kanye nokubolekwa okuphephile ezindaweni zokuhlala e-UK nakho kuyashicilelwa. Ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene nokuzethemba kwe-Eurozone kushicilelwe ngoLwesithathu, kanjalo ne-CPI yaseGerman, kulindeleke ukuthi iveze ushintsho oluncane ezingeni lamanje lokwehla kwamandla emali eliyi-1.7%. Ukunakwa bese kudlulela e-USA, kushicilelwe i-Q2 GDP, njalo ngonyaka okulindelwe ukuwa kusuka ku-2.6% kuye ku-2.5%. Imininingwane ehlukile yokwenyuka kwamandla e-USA nayo ishicilelwa kufaka phakathi ukusetshenziswa kanye nezindleko. Izintambo zamandla esonto eledlule nazo zenziwa zaziwa emphakathini. Kusihlwa kakhulu ukufundwa kokuzethemba komthengi kwe-GfK kwe-UK kwembulwa, ukuthuthuka kusuka ku -12 kuyadingeka. Kuthe kusihlwa kwedatha yokukhiqiza yezimboni yaseJapan ngoJulayi ivezwa, izinga lamanje lika-5.5% kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale lingaguquki.
NgoLwesine Idatha yokusebenza kanye nokubukwa kwebhizinisi laseNew Zealand iyashicilelwa, kuvezwa izibalo zezinkampani ezizimele zase-Australia kanye nezindleko zezimali ezizimele, kushicilelwa ama-PMI akhiqiza futhi angakhiqizi eChina. Ukuqala kwakamuva kwezindlu eJapan kuyadalulwa, kanjalo nezinombolo ze-oda lokwakhiwa kweJapan. Njengoba ukunakwa bese kushintshela eYurophu, kushicilelwa idatha yokungasebenzi kweJalimane ne-Eurozone. Isibalo se-Eurozone's CPI siphrintiwe, kulindeleke ukuthi sigcinwe ku-1.3% YoY. Imininingwane yaseNyakatho Melika iqala ngohlobo lwesibalo se-GDP yaseCanada, kanti isilinganiso samanje se-YoY silinganiselwa ku-4.6% kulindeleke ukuthi sigcinwe. Izimangalo eziqhubekayo zangoLwesine nezicelo ezintsha zokungasebenzi ziyashicilelwa ngokwesintu e-USA ngalolo suku, njengoba kunjalo nangemininingwane yokwenyuka kwamandla emali yase-USA, lapho isibalo sezindleko zomuntu siqu kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke sikhule ngo-1.5% we-YoY. Kusalindwe imininingwane yokuthengiswa kwekhaya kwe-USA.
Friday iqala ngemininingwane yaseSwitzerland, kushicilelwa i-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseCaixan, kanye nokuthengiswa kwezimoto zaseJapan kanye nedatha yokuzethemba kwabathengi. Kusuka eYurophu isibalo se-GDP sakamuva se-Italy sidaluliwe futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sigcine izinga lokukhula elingu-1.5%, sithola ukufundwa kwe-PMI kwamazwe amaningana kubandakanya ne-PMI yokukhiqiza ye-Eurozone. Njengoba ukugxila kuhambela e-USA idatha yakamuva ye-NFP izophinde ilawule ukunakwa kwabatshalizimali kanye nokulandisa komhlaziyi. Isibikezelo sokwehla kwemisebenzi engu-180k eyenziwe ngo-Agasti, kusukela ku-205k eyakhiwe ngoJulayi. Izinga labangasebenzi e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi lisondele kulesi sibalo esiphansi seminyaka engu-16 samanje esingu-4.3%. Imali etholakalayo emaphakathi kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ingashintshiwe ku-2.5%. I-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseCanada ishicilelwe, njengokufundwa kwe-ISM kwakamuva kanye nokuqashwa. Imali yokwakha yase-USA kulindeleke ukuthi ingene ngo-0.6% ngoJulayi, okungcono kusuka ku -1.3% obhaliswe ngoJuni.
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