Masenze iphathi sengathi ingu-19,999.
Ngesinye isikhathi, ngesikhathi sokuhweba saseNew York ngoLwesihlanu mhlaka-6 Januwari, i-DJIA yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu ngokomlando, yafinyelela ku-19,999, iphuzu elilodwa nje elinamahloni 'ngesibambo' esibucayi se-psyche sika-20,000. I-FTSE 100 yase-UK iphrinte amarekhodi amaningi aphezulu phakathi nesonto eliphela ngoJanuwari 6, liphela isonto ngo-7,210.
Izazi eziningi zezomnotho lapho kuhlolisiswa, ziphakamisa ukuthi ukubuyela emuva kukamongameli, ukuqhuma kokhetho, kuzophela, ngemuva kokugcotshwa kukaJanuwari 20. Abaningi baphinde babikezele ukuthi ukunyuka kwezimakethe zamasheya zakamuva kwe-UK kuzokwehla (ngokumangalisa), uma izinhlelo zeBrexit sezikhishwe nguhulumeni wase-UK. Kodwa-ke, kunabahlaziyi abaningi kanye nezazi zezomnotho abanombono wesivumelwano.
Ngaphandle kokukhathazeka okuningi, maqondana namamethrikhi endabuko ezimakethe zamasheya 'afinyelela emazingeni athusayo, kubonakala ngathi akukho zinga elikhulu lokumelana, noma umcimbi omnyama we-swan oseduze, ongadala ukuthengiswa okungazelelwe. Kodwa-ke, kufanele sihlale siqaphele ukuthi imicimbi ye-black swan (ngokwemvelo yayo) ayivamisile ukubikezelwa kokujwayelekile.
Isilinganiso samanje se-P / E se-FTSE 100 yase-UK singama-34, isilinganiso somlando singu-15. Isilinganiso se-P / E sichazwa kangcono kakhulu njengesilinganiso sentengo yesabelo senkampani uma kuqhathaniswa nemali etholwa yisabelo ngasinye. Njengoba igama lisho, ukubala i-P / E, umane uthathe inani lamanje lesitoko lenkampani bese uhlukanisa ngemali etholakalayo ngesabelo ngasinye (i-EPS): P / E Ratio = Inani leMakethe ngeSabelo ngasinye. Amaholo nge-Share (EPS) ngayinye. Ngakho-ke inkomba eyinhloko yase-UK izazi izinkampani eziningi ngobuchwepheshe ezingeni eliphindwe kabili lomlando wazo.
Abahlaziyi abaningi basebenzisa i- “Case Schiller Ratio” ukukala inkomba ye-USA Standard & Poor (i-SPX 500). Ebhekiswe njengo- "CAPE" imele; isilinganiso se-Price-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings esihlanganisa iminyaka eyi-10 edlule. Isilinganiso samanje singu-28.16, izinga eliphakathi nendawo lingu-16.05. Iphuzu eliphakeme kakhulu elirekhodiwe lalinguDisemba 1999 ngo-44.19, izinga eliphansi kakhulu elirekhodiwe lalingu-4.78 ngoZibandlela 1920. Umbono ungadonswa wokuthi lezo zimakethe zase-USA zisenendawo enkulu yokukhuphukela phezulu; ukuphakama ezingeni elibi kakhulu kusetshenziswe ngaphambi kokuphahlazeka kwe-dot com yango-1999-2000. Ngenye indlela, abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi bangaphetha ngokuthi amanani we-SPX njengamanje angaphezulu kuka-42%, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga eliphakathi.
Udaba olulodwa abahlaziyi abaningi kanye nezazi zezomnotho babumbene kulo, ukuthi kufinyelelwe kanjani lawa marekhodi aphezulu; hhayi ngokusebenza kwenkampani erekhodiwe, kodwa ngamanani aphansi kakhulu ezezimali, avumela izinkampani ezinkulu ezicashuniwe ukuthi zibandakanye ekuthengeni isitoko sazo, ukuze zikhuphule intengo yamasheya futhi zenyuse izinzuzo.
Isibonelo, izinkampani zase-USA zisebenzise imali engaba ngama- $ 2.5 trillion kule minyaka eyisithupha edlule benza le mikhuba. Okungenzeka ukuthi inqubo enjalo ibizothathwa ngokuthi “ukuhweba ngaphakathi” emuva ngonyaka we-1982. Lokhu kwashintsha lapho iSecurities and Exchange Commission iphasisa umthetho 10b-18, owavulela amasango ezikhukhula ukuthi izinkampani ziqale ukuzithengela amasheya azo ngobuningi. Mayelana nokuthi lo mkhuba ungaqhubeka noma cha, uma amanani esisekelo e-USA efinyelela 'kokujwayelekile' okungu-3% ngasekupheleni kuka-2018, akunakwenzeka.
Idola, ngokubambisana nezimakethe zezimali zase-USA, lijabulele ukuqhakaza okukhulu kokhetho lukamongameli, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yomhlangano kaDisemba we-FOMC, lapho kwamenyezelwa ukukhuphuka kwamazinga ayisilinganiso esingu-0.25%. I-euro icishe ilingane nedola, kanti i-sterling yehle cishe ngama-20% uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD, kusukela ngesinqumo seJuni 23rd seBrexit. Futhi i-yen yehle ngo-17% uma kuqhathaniswa nedola, kusukela ngo-Agasti 2016.
Imicimbi yekhalenda lezomnotho eyaziwayo ngoJanuwari 9th 2016, zonke izikhathi ezicashunwe yizikhathi zaseLondon.
07:00, imali eyenziwe nge-EUR. Ukukhiqizwa Kwezimboni ZaseJalimane. Lesi sibikezelo esokuthi izinga lokubikezela kwezimboni laseJalimane lenyukele ku-1.9% ngenyanga kaNovemba, lisuka ku-1.2% phambilini.
07:00, imali eyenziwe nge-EUR. Ibhalansi Yokuhweba yaseJalimane (ama-euro) (NOV). IJalimane ihluke kakhulu phakathi kwezizwe eziyinhloko zezimboni ze-G10, ngokuthumela izilinganiso ezincomekayo zokuhweba; bathumela izinto ezingaphezu kwezingeniswa ngaphandle. Isibikezelo sikaNovemba ngu- € 20.3b, kusuka ku- € 19.3b phambilini.
09:30, imali eyenziwe nge-EUR. Ukuthembela kwabatshalizimali be-Euro-Zone Sentix (JAN). Kulinganiselwa ukuthi kusetshenziswe abezomnotho ukuthi kufundwe u-12.8, kukhuphuke esifundweni sangaphambilini sangoDisemba sika-10.
10:00, imali yenziwe nge-EUR. Isilinganiso Sokungasebenzi Kwe-Euro-Zone (NOV). Kulindelwe ukuthi indinganiso yezinga lokungasebenzi kwabantu e-Eurozone izobe ihlale imile ku-9.8%.
20:00, imali eyenziwe nge-USD. Isikweletu Somthengi. Izilinganiso ziphakamisa ukuthi isikweletu sabathengi base-USA sizobe sikhuphukile, ikakhulukazi njengomphumela wezici ezithile zonyaka, ngo- $ 18.400b kusuka ekukhuphukeni kwe- $ 16.018b ngenyanga edlule.
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