UNovemba 16 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5562 • Amazwana Off ku-Just Above Zero Is The New Norm
I-vogue yamanje emibuthanweni yabahlaziyi bezimakethe, lapho iphawula ngemininingwane ekhiqizwa yizinhlangano ezahlukahlukene zikahulumeni noma abashicileli abahlonishwayo, iwukuhlaziya okuncane ukunyakaza kwama-minuscule ngakunye futhi ikhiqize izingxoxo eziningi ngokungafani okuncane. Yize phambilini ukunyakaza kuka-0.5% bekungathathwa 'njengomsindo' ongabalulekile uma kubhekwe ukuthi kungaba yiphutha lezibalo noma iphutha, manje sekuyisikhombisi maqondana "nokuphila noma ukufa komnotho". Ngaphambi kokuphahlazeka kwezezimali ngonyaka ka-2008-2009 abahlaziyi nezazi zezomnotho babeyobheka izibalo ze-1% ngenyanga njengobufakazi bokukhula kokuningi kokukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho elibalulekile. Manje ukukhula kwe-0.1% 'kuhlolisiswe kakhulu' futhi kucindezelwe ngakho konke ukubaluleka kwayo kwimidiya ejwayelekile njengobufakazi bokuthuthuka.
Abahlaziyi abaningi, osomnotho kanye nabahlaziyi banecala lokungaphili emhlabeni wangempela uma ngabe amasethi wedatha ekhathazekile, bayehluleka ukubona 'izinkuni zezihlahla'. Lokhu kunyakaza okuncane kumane nje kungubufakazi bokuma noma ukuqina okungcono kakhulu. Phezu kwakho konke ukukhathazeka maqondana nezikweletu zomnotho othuthukile iningi lamazwe aseYurophu nase-Asia / Pacific nase-USA njengenhlangano eyodwa ayamane aqubisane. Ukubuyiselwa emuva okuqhubekayo entweni kubonakala kuyiphethini ephindaphindayo, lokho kusho ukuthi isibalo siseduze no-zero kepha ukugcizelelwa kuqhubeka kufakwa kumaphoyinti wedesimali okuthuthuka. Ngenkathi isigaba sezindaba singanyamalala uma abezindaba bebonke besho; "Izibalo namuhla, kubukeka sengathi kuyinto ejwayelekile ngenhla nje kokukhula okuthe xaxa, ho hum" isheke langempela lingenza ukumukeleka nokuqabulayo.
Ngakho-ke ake sibheke izinombolo ezinkulu, sicashe ngaphansi kwetafula, ungitshele ukuthi kuphephe nini ukuphuma izinombolo ezinkulu ..
Uma ubheka i-USA uzihlukanise nebinzana elisetshenziswa kakhulu ukuthi kuwo wonke amadola ayishumi okukhula bangeze amadola ayisishiyagalombili esikweletu. Amaphesenti ayisishiyagalombili okukhula kusukela ngo-2009 'athengiwe' ngokwandisa izikweletu ngezimakethe zamabhondi, ukukhishwa kwemali, ukunciphisa inani noma ngokwandisa ukukhokhelwa kwezikweletu. Ngamafuphi akubanga khona ukukhula kwezinto eziphilayo, ngoba ingxenye enkulu bekukhule ngokwenziwa. Njengoba sixoxa ngokusethwa kwedatha eyodwa ikakhulukazi kufanelekile ukubuka kancane (noma ukubheka okude uma uzizwa unesibindi) ngeqiniso elilodwa nje; malini, kusukela ngo-2008-2009 crunch, i-USA inyuse isikweletu sayo ce. I-USA inyuse isikweletu sayo ngo-500 $ ngonyaka ngonyaka osukela ngo-2003 nangama-40% kusukela ngo-2008-2009. Ukwanda kwamuva nje ngoSepthemba 8 kwaba ukwenyuka kwesithathu kokukweletwa kwezikweletu ezinyangeni eziyi-19, ukwenyuka kwesihlanu selokhu uMengameli u-Obama angena esikhundleni, nokwenyuka kweshumi nambili eminyakeni eyishumi. Kodwa-ke, nansi inombolo esabekayo ezothumela labo asebephume ngaphansi kwendwangu yetafula emuva, bashise ngaleyo mali yonyaka emaphakathi ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule ..
Isikweletu Somphakathi sase-USA
Isikweletu somphakathi sikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama- $ 500 billion unyaka nonyaka kusukela ngonyaka wezimali ka-2003, ngokunyuka kwe- $ 1 trillion ku-FY2008, $ 1.9 trillion ku-FY2009, naku- $ 1.7 trillion ku-FY2010. Ukusukela ngo-Okthoba 22, 2011, isikweletu esikhulu kwakungu- $ 14.94 trillion, okungama- $ 10.20 trillion ayebanjwe wumphakathi kanti ama- $ 4.74 trillion ayengaphethe ohulumeni. Umkhiqizo wonyaka ophelele wasekhaya (i-GDP) kuze kube sekupheleni kukaJuni 2011 wawungu- $ 15.003 trillion (ukulinganiselwa kukaJulayi 29, 2011), nezikweletu zomphakathi sezizonke ezisasele kuma-99.6% we-GDP, kanye nezikweletu ezigcinwe ngumphakathi ku-68% we-GDP .
I-GDP yisilinganiso sosayizi ophelele kanye nokukhipha komnotho. Isilinganiso esisodwa somthwalo wesikweletu ngosayizi waso maqondana ne-GDP. Ngonyaka wezimali ka-2007, izikweletu zikahulumeni wase-US ezaziphethwe ngumphakathi zazicishe zibe ama- $ 5 trillion (amaphesenti angama-36.8 we-GDP) kanti isikweletu esiphelele sasingu- $ 9 trillion (amaphesenti angama-65.5 we-GDP). Isikweletu esiphethwe ngumphakathi simele imali ekweletwa labo abaphethe izibambiso zikahulumeni ezifana nezikweletu zikaMgcinimafa namabhondi.
Ngokuya ngesabelozimali sango-2010 sase-US, isikweletu sikazwelonke esiphelele sizophindeka kabili ngamagama amadola phakathi kuka-2008 no-2015 futhi sizokhula size sifike ku-100% we-GDP, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga elicishe libe ngama-80% ekuqaleni kuka-2009. , i-GAO, uMnyango Wezezimali, kanye ne-CBO bathe i-US isendleleni yezimali engazinzile. Kodwa-ke, ngaphambi kokubikezela, isikweletu sikazwelonke esiphelele sifinyelele ku-100% ngekota yesithathu yonyaka ka-2011.
Noma kunjalo, ukubuyela ezinombolweni ezincane eziphephe kakhulu, izibalo zokukhula kwe-Eurozone ngekota edlule bezidumaza njengoba bezimile. Umnotho we-euro zone ukhule ngamaphesenti angama-0.2 kuphela kwikota yesithathu njengoba ukukhula okuqinile eJalimane naseFrance kwehliswa amazwe ngokuphela okukhulu kwenkinga yezikweletu futhi osomnotho balindele ukwehla komnotho ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo. Ukukhula kusuka ngoJulayi kuya kuSepthemba bekufana nasekotini yesibili, kepha umbono wezinyanga ezintathu zokugcina zika-2011 ufiphele, ngenxa yenkinga yezikweletu ejulile yesifunda enesisindo somuzwa nokuzethemba kwabathengi.
I-European Commission ilindele ukuthi umnotho wamazwe ayi-17 asebenzisa i-euro wehle ngamaphesenti ayi-0.1 ezinyangeni ezintathu zokugcina zonyaka uma uqhathaniswa nekota yesithathu futhi umile engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ka-2012. Abezomnotho bathi ukwehla komnotho okuqondile - izingxenye ezimbili kwezine zomkhiqizo owehlayo - bekungenzeka impela, yize ubude nokujula kwayo kuzoncika ekuphenduleni kwenqubomgomo enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu.
ISpain, umnotho wesine ngobukhulu bendawo ye-euro, umile kwikota yesithathu. Njengoba inkinga yezikweletu isizonqanda ukusebenza okuqhubekayo futhi okungenzeka ukuthi abaphumelele okhethweni lukazwelonke lwangeSonto bethembisa ukuqinisa izikhwama zezimali ngokuqhubekayo, ukwehla kwamandla omnotho akunakushiywa ngaphandle. IPortugal eyakhelene nayo, ethola usizo lokutakula i-EU / IMF, isivele isezingeni lokuwohloka komnotho futhi ukwehla kwayo kwehle kakhulu kwikota yesithathu. Umnotho wawo wehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 ezinyangeni ezintathu.
Market Sibutsetelo
Izimali zaseYurophu kanye namabhondi kahulumeni wase-Italy athuthukile esimisweni sasekuseni, ukulahleka kwe-euro kwalimala njengoba uNdunankulu oqokiwe wase-Italy uMario Monti ekugcineni elungiselela ukwakha iKhabinethi entsha.
I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index inyuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.6 kusukela ngo-9: 00 ekuseni eLondon. Ikusasa le-Standard & Poor's 500 Index alizange lishintshwe kancane, kulinganiswa nokwehla kwamaphesenti ayi-1.2. I-euro yanciphisa amaphesenti angu-0.1 kuya ku- $ 1.3529 ngemuva kokuwa phambilini ngamaphesenti angu-0.8. Isivuno esikweletini sikahulumeni wase-Italy seminyaka eyishumi sehle ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo ayi-10 saba ngamaphesenti ayi-14. I-S & P 6.93 Index ithole amaphesenti angu-500 izolo. Imibiko yezomnotho namuhla ingakhombisa ukuthi umkhiqizo wezimboni wase-US ukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngo-Okthoba, okuphindwe kabili kunenyanga edlule.
Isifinyezo semakethe ngo-10: 15 ekuseni GMT (UK) isikhathi
Izimakethe zase-Asia / Pacific zehle kakhulu ukuhweba ekuseni ngovivi, iNikkei yavala u-0.92%, i-Hang Seng yavala u-2.0% kwathi i-CSI yehla ngo-2.72%. i-ASX 200 ivale u-0.89% yehle ngo-9.74% unyaka nonyaka. EYurophu iningi lama-indices wamagciwane aholayo lisendaweni enhle. I-STOXX inyuke ngo-1.05%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-0.26%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-0.75% kanti i-DAX yona inyuke ngo-0.70%. I-MIB ihola ukushaja kuze kufike ku-1.88% kanti inkomba yokushintshaniswa kwe-Athene ukuphela kwelaggard phansi kwe-1.66%. IBrent crude is flat up six dollars a barrel and gold is down five dollars an ounce.
Ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho okungathinta imizwa esimisweni santambama
I-12: I-00 US - Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwezezimali ze-MBA 11 Novemba
13:30 US - CPI Okthoba
14:00 US - TIC Kugeleza Septhemba
14:15 US - Ukukhiqizwa Kwezezimboni ngo-Okthoba
14:15 US - Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ngo-Okthoba
15:00 US - NAHB Imakethe Yezindlu Inkomba kaNovemba
Ngokusobala umcimbi wezindaba wezomnotho ovelele kuzoba yizibalo zokukhiqiza ezimbonini zase-USA. Izibalo zocwaningo lweBloomberg lwabahlaziyi zibikezela isibalo sika-0.4% kule nyanga uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule sika-0.2%.
ukukhula komnothoinhlekelele ye-eurozone
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Ngenhla nje kweZero Ingabe Isimo Esisha
UNovemba 16 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5562 • Amazwana Off ku-Just Above Zero Is The New Norm
I-vogue yamanje emibuthanweni yabahlaziyi bezimakethe, lapho iphawula ngemininingwane ekhiqizwa yizinhlangano ezahlukahlukene zikahulumeni noma abashicileli abahlonishwayo, iwukuhlaziya okuncane ukunyakaza kwama-minuscule ngakunye futhi ikhiqize izingxoxo eziningi ngokungafani okuncane. Yize phambilini ukunyakaza kuka-0.5% bekungathathwa 'njengomsindo' ongabalulekile uma kubhekwe ukuthi kungaba yiphutha lezibalo noma iphutha, manje sekuyisikhombisi maqondana "nokuphila noma ukufa komnotho". Ngaphambi kokuphahlazeka kwezezimali ngonyaka ka-2008-2009 abahlaziyi nezazi zezomnotho babeyobheka izibalo ze-1% ngenyanga njengobufakazi bokukhula kokuningi kokukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho elibalulekile. Manje ukukhula kwe-0.1% 'kuhlolisiswe kakhulu' futhi kucindezelwe ngakho konke ukubaluleka kwayo kwimidiya ejwayelekile njengobufakazi bokuthuthuka.
Abahlaziyi abaningi, osomnotho kanye nabahlaziyi banecala lokungaphili emhlabeni wangempela uma ngabe amasethi wedatha ekhathazekile, bayehluleka ukubona 'izinkuni zezihlahla'. Lokhu kunyakaza okuncane kumane nje kungubufakazi bokuma noma ukuqina okungcono kakhulu. Phezu kwakho konke ukukhathazeka maqondana nezikweletu zomnotho othuthukile iningi lamazwe aseYurophu nase-Asia / Pacific nase-USA njengenhlangano eyodwa ayamane aqubisane. Ukubuyiselwa emuva okuqhubekayo entweni kubonakala kuyiphethini ephindaphindayo, lokho kusho ukuthi isibalo siseduze no-zero kepha ukugcizelelwa kuqhubeka kufakwa kumaphoyinti wedesimali okuthuthuka. Ngenkathi isigaba sezindaba singanyamalala uma abezindaba bebonke besho; "Izibalo namuhla, kubukeka sengathi kuyinto ejwayelekile ngenhla nje kokukhula okuthe xaxa, ho hum" isheke langempela lingenza ukumukeleka nokuqabulayo.
Ngakho-ke ake sibheke izinombolo ezinkulu, sicashe ngaphansi kwetafula, ungitshele ukuthi kuphephe nini ukuphuma izinombolo ezinkulu ..
Uma ubheka i-USA uzihlukanise nebinzana elisetshenziswa kakhulu ukuthi kuwo wonke amadola ayishumi okukhula bangeze amadola ayisishiyagalombili esikweletu. Amaphesenti ayisishiyagalombili okukhula kusukela ngo-2009 'athengiwe' ngokwandisa izikweletu ngezimakethe zamabhondi, ukukhishwa kwemali, ukunciphisa inani noma ngokwandisa ukukhokhelwa kwezikweletu. Ngamafuphi akubanga khona ukukhula kwezinto eziphilayo, ngoba ingxenye enkulu bekukhule ngokwenziwa. Njengoba sixoxa ngokusethwa kwedatha eyodwa ikakhulukazi kufanelekile ukubuka kancane (noma ukubheka okude uma uzizwa unesibindi) ngeqiniso elilodwa nje; malini, kusukela ngo-2008-2009 crunch, i-USA inyuse isikweletu sayo ce. I-USA inyuse isikweletu sayo ngo-500 $ ngonyaka ngonyaka osukela ngo-2003 nangama-40% kusukela ngo-2008-2009. Ukwanda kwamuva nje ngoSepthemba 8 kwaba ukwenyuka kwesithathu kokukweletwa kwezikweletu ezinyangeni eziyi-19, ukwenyuka kwesihlanu selokhu uMengameli u-Obama angena esikhundleni, nokwenyuka kweshumi nambili eminyakeni eyishumi. Kodwa-ke, nansi inombolo esabekayo ezothumela labo asebephume ngaphansi kwendwangu yetafula emuva, bashise ngaleyo mali yonyaka emaphakathi ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule ..
Isikweletu Somphakathi sase-USA
Isikweletu somphakathi sikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama- $ 500 billion unyaka nonyaka kusukela ngonyaka wezimali ka-2003, ngokunyuka kwe- $ 1 trillion ku-FY2008, $ 1.9 trillion ku-FY2009, naku- $ 1.7 trillion ku-FY2010. Ukusukela ngo-Okthoba 22, 2011, isikweletu esikhulu kwakungu- $ 14.94 trillion, okungama- $ 10.20 trillion ayebanjwe wumphakathi kanti ama- $ 4.74 trillion ayengaphethe ohulumeni. Umkhiqizo wonyaka ophelele wasekhaya (i-GDP) kuze kube sekupheleni kukaJuni 2011 wawungu- $ 15.003 trillion (ukulinganiselwa kukaJulayi 29, 2011), nezikweletu zomphakathi sezizonke ezisasele kuma-99.6% we-GDP, kanye nezikweletu ezigcinwe ngumphakathi ku-68% we-GDP .
I-GDP yisilinganiso sosayizi ophelele kanye nokukhipha komnotho. Isilinganiso esisodwa somthwalo wesikweletu ngosayizi waso maqondana ne-GDP. Ngonyaka wezimali ka-2007, izikweletu zikahulumeni wase-US ezaziphethwe ngumphakathi zazicishe zibe ama- $ 5 trillion (amaphesenti angama-36.8 we-GDP) kanti isikweletu esiphelele sasingu- $ 9 trillion (amaphesenti angama-65.5 we-GDP). Isikweletu esiphethwe ngumphakathi simele imali ekweletwa labo abaphethe izibambiso zikahulumeni ezifana nezikweletu zikaMgcinimafa namabhondi.
Ngokuya ngesabelozimali sango-2010 sase-US, isikweletu sikazwelonke esiphelele sizophindeka kabili ngamagama amadola phakathi kuka-2008 no-2015 futhi sizokhula size sifike ku-100% we-GDP, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga elicishe libe ngama-80% ekuqaleni kuka-2009. , i-GAO, uMnyango Wezezimali, kanye ne-CBO bathe i-US isendleleni yezimali engazinzile. Kodwa-ke, ngaphambi kokubikezela, isikweletu sikazwelonke esiphelele sifinyelele ku-100% ngekota yesithathu yonyaka ka-2011.
Noma kunjalo, ukubuyela ezinombolweni ezincane eziphephe kakhulu, izibalo zokukhula kwe-Eurozone ngekota edlule bezidumaza njengoba bezimile. Umnotho we-euro zone ukhule ngamaphesenti angama-0.2 kuphela kwikota yesithathu njengoba ukukhula okuqinile eJalimane naseFrance kwehliswa amazwe ngokuphela okukhulu kwenkinga yezikweletu futhi osomnotho balindele ukwehla komnotho ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo. Ukukhula kusuka ngoJulayi kuya kuSepthemba bekufana nasekotini yesibili, kepha umbono wezinyanga ezintathu zokugcina zika-2011 ufiphele, ngenxa yenkinga yezikweletu ejulile yesifunda enesisindo somuzwa nokuzethemba kwabathengi.
I-European Commission ilindele ukuthi umnotho wamazwe ayi-17 asebenzisa i-euro wehle ngamaphesenti ayi-0.1 ezinyangeni ezintathu zokugcina zonyaka uma uqhathaniswa nekota yesithathu futhi umile engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ka-2012. Abezomnotho bathi ukwehla komnotho okuqondile - izingxenye ezimbili kwezine zomkhiqizo owehlayo - bekungenzeka impela, yize ubude nokujula kwayo kuzoncika ekuphenduleni kwenqubomgomo enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu.
ISpain, umnotho wesine ngobukhulu bendawo ye-euro, umile kwikota yesithathu. Njengoba inkinga yezikweletu isizonqanda ukusebenza okuqhubekayo futhi okungenzeka ukuthi abaphumelele okhethweni lukazwelonke lwangeSonto bethembisa ukuqinisa izikhwama zezimali ngokuqhubekayo, ukwehla kwamandla omnotho akunakushiywa ngaphandle. IPortugal eyakhelene nayo, ethola usizo lokutakula i-EU / IMF, isivele isezingeni lokuwohloka komnotho futhi ukwehla kwayo kwehle kakhulu kwikota yesithathu. Umnotho wawo wehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 ezinyangeni ezintathu.
Market Sibutsetelo
Izimali zaseYurophu kanye namabhondi kahulumeni wase-Italy athuthukile esimisweni sasekuseni, ukulahleka kwe-euro kwalimala njengoba uNdunankulu oqokiwe wase-Italy uMario Monti ekugcineni elungiselela ukwakha iKhabinethi entsha.
I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index inyuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.6 kusukela ngo-9: 00 ekuseni eLondon. Ikusasa le-Standard & Poor's 500 Index alizange lishintshwe kancane, kulinganiswa nokwehla kwamaphesenti ayi-1.2. I-euro yanciphisa amaphesenti angu-0.1 kuya ku- $ 1.3529 ngemuva kokuwa phambilini ngamaphesenti angu-0.8. Isivuno esikweletini sikahulumeni wase-Italy seminyaka eyishumi sehle ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo ayi-10 saba ngamaphesenti ayi-14. I-S & P 6.93 Index ithole amaphesenti angu-500 izolo. Imibiko yezomnotho namuhla ingakhombisa ukuthi umkhiqizo wezimboni wase-US ukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngo-Okthoba, okuphindwe kabili kunenyanga edlule.
Isifinyezo semakethe ngo-10: 15 ekuseni GMT (UK) isikhathi
Izimakethe zase-Asia / Pacific zehle kakhulu ukuhweba ekuseni ngovivi, iNikkei yavala u-0.92%, i-Hang Seng yavala u-2.0% kwathi i-CSI yehla ngo-2.72%. i-ASX 200 ivale u-0.89% yehle ngo-9.74% unyaka nonyaka. EYurophu iningi lama-indices wamagciwane aholayo lisendaweni enhle. I-STOXX inyuke ngo-1.05%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-0.26%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-0.75% kanti i-DAX yona inyuke ngo-0.70%. I-MIB ihola ukushaja kuze kufike ku-1.88% kanti inkomba yokushintshaniswa kwe-Athene ukuphela kwelaggard phansi kwe-1.66%. IBrent crude is flat up six dollars a barrel and gold is down five dollars an ounce.
Ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho okungathinta imizwa esimisweni santambama
I-12: I-00 US - Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwezezimali ze-MBA 11 Novemba
13:30 US - CPI Okthoba
14:00 US - TIC Kugeleza Septhemba
14:15 US - Ukukhiqizwa Kwezezimboni ngo-Okthoba
14:15 US - Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ngo-Okthoba
15:00 US - NAHB Imakethe Yezindlu Inkomba kaNovemba
Ngokusobala umcimbi wezindaba wezomnotho ovelele kuzoba yizibalo zokukhiqiza ezimbonini zase-USA. Izibalo zocwaningo lweBloomberg lwabahlaziyi zibikezela isibalo sika-0.4% kule nyanga uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule sika-0.2%.
ukukhula komnothoinhlekelele ye-eurozone
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