Ukuqagela kwethrendi kweviki eliqala ngoJulayi 3, 2013
Njengoba i-SPX ifinyelela eqophelweni eliphezulu izinombolo ze-NFP ziyaphoxeka, kepha idola lihlala lithengiwe.
Njengokungathi kudingeka ubufakazi bokuthi ukuzibophezela okuqhubekayo kweFed kwezezimali 
Ukwehlisa amandla kubhebhethekisa ukukhuphuka kwama-main equices indices we-SPX, i-DJIA kanye ne-NASDAQ, ize ngendlela yemicimbi yezindaba edumazayo ngesonto eledlule ehlulekile ukuqeda 'ukubhida' kwalezi zikhathi zamandla adonsela phansi nezimakethe. Uhlu lwemininingwane engemihle evela e-USA ngesonto eledlule belubaluleke kakhulu, kepha bekungukuphrinta kwemisebenzi okungekuhle okwenza ukuthi abahlaziyi abaningi bahlale phansi banake. Imibhalo engemihle yezomnotho ibandakanya lokhu okulandelayo;
- Ukuthengiswa kwekhaya okulindile kwehle kusuka ku-5.8% +, kuya ku-0.4% -
- Ukuzethemba kwebhodi lenkomfa kwehlele ku-80.3
- Ukuvulwa kwamathuba emisebenzi kwe-NFP kwehlele ku-163K
- Ama-oda efektri awehlele ku-1.5% kusuka ku-3.0%
Naphezu kwemicimbi yezindaba ezimangalisayo engamangalisi yokumelana nemininingwane engemihle, ngaphandle kwe-USA GDP ekhuphuke yaya ku-1.7% inyanga nenyanga kanti ucwaningo oluhlukahlukene lokuzethemba lwabathengi lube muhle, izimakethe zakhuphuka, njengoba kwenza nedola uma liqhathaniswa neziningi zezimbangi zalo zontanga.
Lokhu kukhuphuka kwe-greenback ngezikhathi zokuhweba zangesonto eledlule kubangele ushintsho kumathrendi wesikhathi eside abekwe eshadini lansuku zonke futhi lezi zinguquko sizobhekisisa maqondana nokuqhubeka kokuthambekela okungaba khona kuleli sonto elikhona.
Imicimbi yenqubomgomo, noma imicimbi yezindaba ibalwa njengomthelela omkhulu esontweni, engathinta imizwa futhi iguqule ukuthambekela.
Izinsizakalo ze-PMI zase-UK zishicilelwa ngoMsombuluko. Emnothweni othembele kakhulu emnothweni wezinsizakalo ukuqinisa ukuzethemba nabahlaziyi bokusebenza kwezomnotho amanani entengo ekufundeni okuthuthukile kuka-57.4 uma kuqhathaniswa no-56.5 ngaphambilini. Izibalo zokukhiqiza, ngokuhlonipha i-ONS yase-UK nazo zizophrintwa ngoLwesibili. Phambilini okuphrintiwe bekungu-0.8% ongemuhle, okulindelwe kungokuphrinta okungu-0.9% okuhle. Uma kwenzeka inani lihlala lingenayo le nto ingaqala ukubuza i-PMI enhle eyethulwe nguMarkit phambilini futhi ithinte inani lentengo enhle kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu.
Ibhalansi yezohwebo e-USA izobhekwa ngokucophelela ngoLwesibili ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokusebenza komnotho okuqhubekayo futhi kutholakale ukuthi ukukhula kwamuva nje kunaso yini isisindo esibambekayo. Izinhlu zikawoyela ongahluziwe ze-USA nazo zizothinta intengo kawoyela futhi ziveze ukuthi 'womele' kanjani umnotho wase-USA ngamandla.
Izinga lokuqashwa lase-Australia eliphrintwe ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa / ngoLwesine ekuseni lingahle linqume ukuthi i-hawkish, noma i-dovish kanjani uhulumeni wase-Aussie nokuthi ngabe kukhona yini okwehlisayo ku-RBA ukwehlisa amanani enzalo ngokuhlukumeza kakhulu kunalokho obekuxoxwe ngakho ngaphambilini.
NgoLwesine ubona isithangami sabezindaba se-BOJ esizocacisa ukuthi u-BOJ nohulumeni waseJapan bazibophezele kangakanani ezinhlosweni zabo ezahlukahlukene ezibekiwe zokwehla kwamandla emali, ukukhula nokuncishiswa kwemali.
Izimangalo eziqhubekayo zase-USA zokungasebenzi zingabhekwa kakhulu kunamasonto adlule ngoLwesine uma kunikezwa lo mbhalo odumaza kakhulu we-NFP. Isibikezelo ngezimangalo eziqhubekayo zokungena ku-336K.
Ukubukwa kwethrendi kwesonto
Forex
I-EUR / USD yehlulekile ukufinyelela ezindaweni eziphakeme ngesikhathi sokuhweba ngesonto eledlule ukukhulisa izinsolo zokuthi ukuthambekela kwamanje kufinyelele esiphethweni saso semvelo. Izinsuku ezine kwezinhlanu zokuhweba ziphele ngoHiekin Ashi dojis wamandla ahlukahlukene nokubukeka. Kodwa-ke, i-DMI isalungile, ne-MACD ngokufanayo, i-RSI njengamanje ifunda ngaphezulu kwama-70, kanti ama-stochastics asesensimini ethengwe kakhulu kodwa awakawi.
Ibhendi yaseBollinger emaphakathi yephulwe phansi ngesikhathi sokuhweba sangoLwesihlanu, lokhu bekuwukuphela kwenkomba, vimba iphethini yesenzo sentengo esiboniswe ikhandlela lansuku zonke likaHeikin Ashi, okuphakamise ukuthi ukuthambekela kwamanje kwe-bullish kuphelile. Uma abathengisi bengena kwezohwebo, ngokwesibonisi senkambiso yakudala ngoJulayi 11, izinzuzo zamapayipi kufanele zibaluleke. Abahwebi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi babheke ezinye izinkomba ezingezinhle, mhlawumbe njenge-PSAR encane ezovela ngaphezu kwentengo nama-histograms amaningana abe mahle (i-DMI ne-MACD) ngaphambi kokuvala ukuhweba kwabo okude futhi ngemuva kwalokho benze ukuhweba okuncane.
GBP / USD. I-Cable iqede ukuthambekela kwayo kwe-bullish yakamuva ngoJulayi 31. I-up-trend iqale yafana nezinye izitayela uma kuqhathaniswa nedola langoJulayi 11 noma cishe ngawo. Umkhuba uphele ngezinkomba eziningi zakudala zokuhweba ezijika zibe zimbi; I-PSAR ngenhla kwentengo, i-DMI ne-MACD ekhombisa ukufundwa okungekuhle, ama-stochastics enqamula endaweni elungisiwe engu-9,9,5 futhi ephuma endaweni ebibekelwe ngaphezulu, ngenkathi i-RSI iwela ngaphansi komugqa ophakathi wama-50. Kodwa-ke, isonto liphele ngokunikeza inkinga yabathengisi okungenzeka ukuthi bathathe ukuhweba ngezifiso ezimfushane ngokuya ngezinkomba ezithandwayo nesenzo sentengo esiboniswe ngamakhandlela kaHeikin Ashi. Ngenxa yesimo esibi sokuphrinta se-NFP esishintshile uma kuqhathaniswa nedola esigabeni sokugcina sokuhweba. UCable ukhuphuke ngo-R1, esesondele ezingeni le-pivot yansuku zonke ngaphambi kokuba imisebenzi inyatheliswe. Ukuvala kwangoLwesihlanu kukhiqize ikhandlela le-doij. Abahwebi abayizintambo ezimfushane manje kuzofanele baqaphe isenzo sentengo kulezi zikhathi ezimbili ezizayo zokuhweba ukuthola ukuthi ukuhweba kwabo okufushane kusasebenza yini. Ngethemba ukuthi abathengisi abafushane bangathola induduzo esimweni samanje uma bengena ngokuya ngezinkomba ngomhlaka-31 Julayi noma ngenxa yalokho ngenxa yalokho basenombono omuhle, noma bakhombisa ukulahleka okuncane kokuhweba okujwayelekile.
USD / JPY igcine isimilo sayo ngezikhathi zokuhweba zangesonto eledlule njengokuhweba okukhohlisa ngokumangazayo. I-greenback ithengise ebangeni eliqinile kusukela ngoJulayi 11 lapho abathengisi abaningi bebezolingeka ukuthi bafinyeze imali. Ngemuva kwalokho umfutho obonakalayo eshadini ubuthaka kakhulu, kanti i-yen ithuthukise amandla ngenxa yesimo sayo esiphephile njengoba i-Nikkei ilahlekelwe kakhulu ezikhathini eziningi ezithengisiwe ebusuku / ekuseni kakhulu ngesonto eledlule.
I-USD / JPY ithuthukisa ukuthambekela okuningi kokuphepha okulungele ukuphuma kuye phezulu. I-DMI ivuma ngokulungiselelwa okulungisiwe okungama-20 (ukusabalalisa umsindo), i-MACD yenza ukwehla okuphezulu, isebenzisa i-histogram njengokubukwayo, kanti i-RSI ibingaphezu komugqa wama-median angama-50 ngezinsuku ezilandelanayo. Ama-stochastics kusafanele awele futhi kungenzeka ahlelele phezulu phezulu kusethingi elilungisiwe le-9,9,5. Abahwebi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi baqaphe amashadi abo ngokucophelela befuna obunye ubufakazi, njengePSAR ebonakala ngezansi kwentengo, ukuze bathathe inkambiso ende, noma babeke isikhundla kwezohwebo.
I-AUD / USD. i-Aussie uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD nayo ibonakalise ukuba ukuhweba okunzima ngendlela emangalisayo emasontweni amuva nje ngenxa yokuthi leli phepha lezimpahla elidumile, lifana ne-dollar yen, lithengiswe ngobubanzi obuncane kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, ngoJulayi 30 ubunjalo bokuziphatha kwale pair currency buphela njengoba ukubonwa kokubi kwabonwa ngazo zonke izinkomba ezinkulu zokuhweba eziqala ukusebenza. I-PSAR ngenhla kwentengo, iMACD yenza ukwehla kwehle kwi-histogram, ngokufanayo ne-DMI. I-RSI iyanyathelisa endaweni engama-30, yamukelwa ngokujwayelekile njengenkomba yokuhamba phambili yokuthi lokhu kuwa okunolaka kunomfutho owengeziwe. Ibhendi engezansi yeBollinger yephuliwe ngenkathi ama-stochastics ewele ngesimo esilungisiwe esingu-9,9,5. Abahwebi kulokhu kuthengiselana okufishane bazokwelulekwa ukuthi bahlale nakho kuze kube kukhonjiswa izinkomba eziphikisana nalokho. Mhlawumbe njengoba abathengisi abancane kufanele babheke ngasePSAR ukuze bavele ngaphansi kwentengo ukuphuma balinde ukuqiniswa kwesibonakaliso ngaphambi kokuguqula imizwa yabo ibe yi-bullish.
indices
The SPX ifinyelele ekuphakameni okusha ngesikhathi sokuhweba ngesonto eledlule, ngokufanayo i-DJIA ilandele okufanayo. Ngaphandle kwalokhu kuphakama okusha futhi ukwahlulela ngesenzo sentengo esiboniswe eshadini lansuku zonke, abahlaziyi abaningi nabahwebi babonakala bengaqiniseki ukuthi noma yikuphi ukuphuma okuphezulu kunamandla amaningi. I-DJIA, i-SPX ne-NASDAQ bathengise ngemigqa eqinile emasontweni adlule behlinzeka ngesimo esinzima kakhulu sabathengisi bezindlela zokuphatha.
Ukulandisa okuqhubekayo kwe-Fed stimulus tapering kungahle kube yimbangela yalokhu kudideka, noma iqiniso elilula lokuthi abathengisi babonakala benqikaza ukubiza intengo kuma-indices amakhulu ngaphezu kwamazinga amarekhodi amuva nje ngaphandle kwezinkomba ezicacile zokuthi umnotho wase-USA uyalungisa ngempela. Kubathengisi bethrendi; kusetshenziswa izinkomba eziningi zomkhuba ezithandwa kakhulu, ukuhlala isikhathi eside i-DJIA yisinqumo esisobala esilinde noma yiziphi izehlakalo zezindaba ezingezinhle ezingadala ukuthengiswa. Abahwebi abade i-DJIA izokwelulekwa ukuthi ibheke i-PSAR ebonakala ngaphezu kwentengo njengesizathu esincane sokubopha ukuhweba kwabo okude. Ngenkathi ufuna esinye isiqinisekiso ngendlela ye-MACD, DMI ne-RSI yokunyathelisa amasiginali we-bearish.
yezimbiwa
Amafutha we-WTI ivuselele ukuthambekela kwayo kokulandela izinto ngemuva kokuthengiswa kwamuva nje, okuhambisana nezinombolo zezimpahla ezisezingeni eliphansi e-USA kanye nokungezwani okwandayo eMiddle East. I-WTI iqale ukubhekela phezulu phezulu ngo-Agasti 1 ngemuva kokuvela kwekhandlela lakudala le-doji kusetshenziswa uHeikin Ashi kuvalwe ngoJulayi 31. U-Oyili uphinde wasabisa ngokukhipha ukuphakama kwawo kwaminyaka yonke okuphrintiwe emasontweni amabili edlule. Uma ubheka izinkomba zokuhweba ezithandwa kakhulu zombili uwoyela we-WTI neBrent uvela ngamandla, i-DMI iphrinta ukuphakama okuphezulu kwi-histogram njengoba kunjalo nge-MACD, kanti ukufundwa kwe-RSI kuku-60. Abathengisi bamathrendi uwoyela omude bazokhuthazwa ukuthi bahlale isikhathi eside kuze kube yilapho izimpawu ze-bearish, ngendlela yezinkomba ezisetshenziswa kakhulu, zibonakala eshadini lansuku zonke.
Gold
Igolide lehlulekile ukugcina ukuphuma kwalo okunamandla kuze kufike phezulu lapho kuthengiswe ebangeni eliqinile le-bullish amaseshini wokuhweba amasonto ambalwa edlule. Isignali yokuvala futhi okungenzeka ukuthi ihwebe ngecala elingezansi, ize ngomusa wenkomba yePSAR ebonakala ngentengo ngenkathi i-RSI idlala ngothando ngomugqa ophakathi kwama-50. Ibhendi yaseBollinger emaphakathi yephuliwe ngenkathi ama-stochastics, (esimweni esilungisiwe esingu-9,9,5) eqe futhi ephuma endaweni ethe xaxa. Abathengisi begolide bazokwelulekwa ukuthi bahlale bufushane kuze kube yilapho izinkomba eziningi ezihamba phambili ziphakamisa okunye. Ukholo oluncane kakhulu olungabekwa endaweni ephephile yegolide njengamanje, uma kunikezwe ubungozi engozini yeparadigm kanye nokuhlangana okulandelayo okwamanje akunakwenzeka ukunqunywa.
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